TURKISH POLITICAL TURMOIL: VIEWS FROM THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001053

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH POLITICAL TURMOIL: VIEWS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4(b),(d)

1.(U) This is a joint Consulate Adana-Embassy Ankara report.

2.(C) Summary: Viewed from Adana and points east, the events
of the past week in Ankara do not appear to have
fundamentally altered the balance of political power. If
anything, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)
stands to gain some votes in the region, while the
center-right parties could lose support. AKP representatives
are confident about their chances and believe direct
presidential elections will be a step forward. Old-line
establishment representatives are grateful that the AKP has
been blocked, even though the military was involved. One
multinational businessman was all but indifferent to the
political "crisis", confident that the current economic
stability will continue. The broad-based enthusiasm we found
for direct presidential elections shows that ordinary Turkish
citizens are ready to take this responsibility away from the
parliamentarians, judges, and military officers who they
believe have botched the job this time. End summary.

Gaming the Election: AKP Bounce is in the Cards
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3.(C) Observers in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish areas all
agree that the moves by the military and the Constitutional
Court will redound to the AKP's benefit in the coming
elections. Yilmaz Akinci, a Diyarbakir-based journalist,
noted that the adage "my enemy's enemy is my friend" will
prompt many Kurds to now see the AKP as a force standing
against the Turkish military and therefore worthy of support.
Similarly, Siyar Ozsoy, an advisor to Diyarbakir's
pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) mayor, said that
many of the voters in the Southeast who are on the fence
between the DTP and the AKP will now opt for the latter.
"Now they can vote for the AKP and feel that they are voting
against the state."

4.(C) Gaziantep-based Kurdish contacts echoed this
assessment. The local DTP chair noted that the parties that
boycotted the first round of presidential voting (opposition
CHP, DYP and Anavatan) will face a backlash at the polls by
voters who see them as too close to the military. He also
believed that DTP would benefit, predicting it would win
upwards of 35 seats by running its candidates as
independents. A former chairman of the Adana AKP told us
that several DYP and Anavatan members in Adana had resigned
from their parties and he predicted AKP, as the only other
moderate, right-of-center party, would benefit.

5.(C) In contrast with Erdogan's harsh criticism of the
court's decision, the AKP mayor of Gaziantep and his party
colleagues were more upbeat. Mayor Asim Guzelbey was excited
about the prospect of holding direct elections for president,
saying that a system modeled on France's two-round
presidential election system would increase the legitimacy of
the process and represent a step forward in Turkish
democracy. The AKP provincial leadership in Gaziantep also
welcomed direct presidential elections and was supremely
confident that, as the only party organizationally ready for
early elections, AK would increase from 41 percent to above
50 percent in Gaziantep.

The Old Establishment: A Sigh of Relief
--------------

6.(C) Traditionalists in the farming and journalism
communities of Adana and Gaziantep were pleased with the
military's intervention. Citrus farmer, and member of
Adana's premier Kemalist family, Mustafa Gulek, said he was
surprised the TGS waited as long as it did before issuing a
statement. Gulek said he believes the AKP does not have the
legitimacy to elect the president since its mandate is nearly
five years old and it received fewer than 40 percent of the
votes cast. Another Adana farmer, Mehmet Yaltir, told us
that "too much democracy is dangerous" and Turks welcomed the
military's willingness to step in to protect secularism.

7.(C) Businessman and owner of Gaziantep's oldest local
newspaper, Aykut Tuzcu, was both relieved and excited as he

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watched the Constitutional Court's announcement during our
meeting. He believed the Court's decision made early
elections inevitable because the AKP would not be able to
sell another "compromise candidate" to its voters. This was
a pragmatic way to settle the "dangerous" divide that had
been created in Turkish society.

Business Community Unfazed
--------------

8.(C) Sami Konukoglu, a board member of the Sanko
conglomerate (a billion dollar group whose businesses include
textiles, heavy equipment and building materials),expressed
no concern about political events in Ankara when we met just
prior to the court decision. He noted that the equity market
saw only a seven percent sell-off, which would have been
30-40 percent ten years ago. Konukoglu said he had spent the
weekend at a trade fair in Germany and completed deals to
sell hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of earth-moving
vehicles to European clients; not a single customer raised
questions about political stability in Turkey. "There is a
zero percent chance of a military coup in Turkey," he said.
Konukoglu also observed that the controversy over secularism
vs. Kemalism is a cover for a basic competition for power,
saying he is confident that the democratic process would
correct any unreasonable encroachments on secularism.

9.(C) Comment: In the coming elections, the AKP looks poised
to build on its strong showing in the developed
Adana-Gaziantep region and to parlay its "victim" status into
an increased vote count in the heavily Kurdish areas of the
Southeast. The broad-based enthusiasm for direct
presidential elections, meanwhile, shows that ordinary
Turkish citizens are ready to take this responsibility away
from the parliamentarians, judges, and military officers who
they believe have botched the job this time. End comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON