ALGERIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN TRAIL: INFORMATION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 000666

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON AG
SUBJECT: ALGERIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN TRAIL: INFORMATION IN
RESPONSE TO C-NE7-00589

REF: STATE 63767

Classified By: Ambassador Robert S. Ford, reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: The Algerian legislative election,
which will conclude with nationwide voting on May 17,
has not been much focused on issues. The two major
Algerian political parties, FLN and RND, form a presidential
coalition with the Islamist MSP party. All three parties in
their
campaigning for May 17 national parliamentary elections
emphasize their agreement with President Bouteflika's
so-called economic and political reform program. That
program, and the parties' platforms lack detail.
The FLN touts itself as the party of "stability
and security," as it tries to assure Algerians
that it is best able to guide Algeria's final phases of
national reconciliation with terrorists following the
April 11 bombing of the prime minister's office.
The RND, by contrast, emphasizes economic reforms such as
reducing
unemployment and living standards without explaining how it
would seek to do so. The communist Workers' Party which
makes clear its opposition to economic privatization and
world trade regimes. MSP and the predominately Berber
opposition RCD have highlighted corruption as a
campaign issue although again without specifics. MSP's
fielding of young candidates new to politics aims to
hit a chord against an establishment largely perceived
as corrupt. The RCD has placed special emphasis on a
high voter turnout to prevent fraud at the polls.
Ultimately, the voters themselves seek improvement in
their economic situation and ask how
parliamentarians in a country rich with petrodollars can
do so little concern for the people. We often hear that
Algerians themselves understand the parliament is a weak
institution that has done little to bring about reform.
The disinterest in these elections and the political
Process does not bode well for a country still
grappling with how to marginalize Islamist extremism.
End Summary.

DIFFERENCES OF EMPHASIS BETWEEN THE RND AND FLN
-------------- --


2. (C) In the current campaign for national parliament, the
National Liberation Front (FLN),National Rally for
Democracy (RND) and Movement for a Society at Peace (MSP)
-- the presidential coalition -- support the continuation
of President Bouteflika's "program," which is broadly
defined as economic and political reform. Their perceived
need not to stray far from Bouteflika's so-called program for
economic and political reform has the downside of making it
difficult for these parties to advocate specific remedies.
As one FLN contact told us, no one wants to get in front of
Bouteflika on various issues. The result is that the FLN
and RND stick generally to platitudes. MSP does the same,
with the exception of putting more emphasis on clean
government, which is also part of Bouteflika's overall
political agenda.


3. (C) On economic issues, it is especially
hard to differentiate between the parties. RND's leader,
Ahmed Ouyahia, repeatedly says during rallies that RND "is
not an opposition party but one of supporting the
president's agenda. This support will continue after May
17." RND underscores its support for "economic reforms,"
"reducing unemployment," and "improving living standards,"
but its 140-point platform is devoid of details on how to
bring about these changes. PM Belkhadem's FLN touts the
need for the "full implementation" of national
reconciliation, even though our Algerian contacts note that
Bouteflika for months has given the impression that the
autumn 2005 referendum served as a capstone to that
process. One Algerian business source summed it up for
many of our contacts when he said the FLN plays the
"security card" in highlighting reconciliation with
terrorists because it has nothing positive to promote on
economic reform. "Stability and security" are the watch
words of the FLN, he maintained, because the slogan soothes
Algerians who were rattled by the April 11 car bombing of
Belkhadem's office.

MSP AND RCD FOCUS ON CORRUPTION
--------------


4. (C) The MSP and opposition Rally for Culture and
Democracy (RCD) concentrate their public statements on the

need to fight corruption. They diverge in that RCD also
speaks frequently of its concern for "fraud" at the ballot
box May 17. RCD leader Said Saadi says in nearly every
speech that "legitimate apprehensions accompany this poll,
and fraud and corruption are feared by all citizens." He
then exhorts voters to combat fraud by turning out to vote
in high numbers and calls on them to remain politically
vigilant, since "the corruption cannot end overnight."


5. (C) By contrast, the Islamist MSP
leader Aboudjerra Soltani describes corruption as the root
of what ills Algeria and calls upon the government to lift
the Emergency Law that bans political demonstrations in
Algiers. (In these respects, MSP departs from its fellow
presidential coalition parties.) Representing an
Islamist philosophy derived from the Muslim Brotherhood's
ideology, MSP party leaders have told us that
Algerians embracing Islam are most often prevented under
the Emergency Law from publicly advocating their views.
Since young voters do not recall the violence of the 1990s
and, as such, do not understand why the Emergency Law was
enacted, Soltani often appeals at rallies for their
support: "The time has come for the independence generation
to participate fully in the country's construction." He
also seeks to win their sizable vote by noting that the MSP
has fielded more younger, new-to-politics candidates than
any other party. MSP contacts believe electing fresh faces
is the best antidote to entrenched political corruption and
has the added advantage of representing radical change.

MORE CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIST PARTY SLIPPING
--------------


6. (C) The more conservative Islah party, under the
New leadership of Mohamed Boulahia, is not expected to
fare well. (Its office did not return our calls for
comment on its campaign strategy.) Our
political party contacts across the spectrum tell us that
traditional Islah voters, who are loyal to ousted party
leader Abdallah Djaballah, will likely follow Djaballah's
appeal for a boycott of the polling. Those that do
vote will cast ballots for the MSP or the FLN, according
to our political contacts. The FLN picks up Djaballah
votes, they say, because its party leader, PM Belkhadem,
is perceived as holding traditional, conservative views.

LOOKING TO THE FAR LEFT: LOUISA HANOUNE
--------------


7. (C) If voters are looking for specificity on issues,
Louisa Hanoune's Workers' Party offers the most. She calls
on Algerians to "defend the national sovereignty and
natural resources through a purely Algerian policy not
dictated by outsiders." She often rails against the U.S.
specifically, criticizing American policies in the Middle
East and the recent Embassy warden message about a threat
in Algiers. Her public affairs officer, Abdelhamid
Boubaghla, told us us that she and her party believe
"foreigners want to impose their
views on Algeria for the benefit of outsiders." He
affirmed that the Workers' Party would "put up roadblocks
against any action opposing the Algerian people's
interests." As Louisa Hanoune is fond of saying at
rallies, the Workers' Party "rejects the government's
policy of privatization and seeks to guarantee and preserve
Algerian sovereignty by keeping funds in the hands of the
public and its trustees." She calls for the abolishment of
the ministry responsible for privatizing state enterprises
and describes the "rules and regulations of globalization"
as a "genuine Tsunami for developing countries' economies."
Hanoune also receives much applause when she calls on the
government to provide water and electricity for Algerians,
rather than selling off the country's riches to
foreigners. (Comment: It is notable that few Algerians
publicly challenge Hanoune's statist economics. Her
popularity among ordinary Algerians is indicative of
the challenge the presidential coalition parties face
in touting economic reform, which Algerians by and
large see as benefiting the corrupt few, not the
masses. End Comment.)

WHAT DO THE VOTERS WANT?
--------------


8. (C) Algerian voters in their conversations with us and
our contacts most often cite five concerns of greatest
importance to them:

- raising living standards;
- improving education;
- providing workers with salary increases;
- creating jobs;
- creating more housing.

Youssef Boumezbar, professor of sociology Algiers
University Algiers said that Algerians are looking for
"permanent solutions to their problems, especially chronic
unemployment." Second to unemployment, he cited bolstering
salaries as the greatest need. He commented that Algerians
do not understand how the country has foreign exchange
reserves approaching 100 billion dollars while none of the
political parties (aside from the Workers' Party) so much
as considers spending them on social needs. Abdallah
Massoud, an economics student at the University of Algiers,
lamented (in what is a common refrain) that
parliamentarians do not care about ordinary citizens and
their problems. He noted that they are never on the
floor of parliament during televised debates.
He commented that the money being spent on infrastructure
Improvements has not generated employment or lead to a
better life for Algerians, a point we have heard from others.


COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Nearly every Algerian
predicts the FLN or RND will score the highest tallies on
May 17. Political party contacts privately tell us they
expect the Workers' Party to emerge as the largest
opposition party following the elections. While there
have been no overt attempts to buy votes with
infrastructure projects (and this would be
difficult because all three coalition parties are
represented in the government),concerns that the
government may rig the results May 17 are widespread.


10. (C) Two days before the polling, there are two other
Striking observations compared to the legislative elections
of 1997. In ten years, the Islamist parties are widely
perceived to be substantially weaker. In 1997, most observers
expected the MSP to either finish first or second. We have
met no one who expects that now, and not only because of the
possibilities of election fraud. The party's leader has not
made an especially convincing case that the party would act
differently on corruption, and its association with the
government has stripped it of the charm of an opposition
party. Second, in 1997 public interest was minimal until
about two weeks before the election. In the last two weeks
we saw a surge in public discussion and attendance at election
events. That did not happen this time, and the disinterest
in politics does not bode well for a country still
grappling with how to marginalize Islamist extremism.
FORD