MAY 17 ELECTION TIMETABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 000247

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AG
SUBJECT: MAY 17 ELECTION TIMETABLE

REF: A. ALGIERS 206


B. ALGIERS 109

C. ALGIERS 30

Classified By: DCM Thomas F. Daughton; reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On February 15 President Bouteflika decreed
that national elections will be held May 17 to replace the
lower house of parliament, the National Popular Assembly. In
doing so, Bouteflika pointedly did not take the public advice
of his prime minister and schedule concurrent elections for
local councils -- something that other political parties and
the minister of interior had declared unfeasible. The decree
set forth a timetable for campaign activities leading up to
the balloting. An open voter registration period will be
held through February 28; political parties have until April
1 to submit their lists of candidates to the government; and
free media access will be accorded to qualifying political
parties approximately three weeks before the elections.
Attention inside and among the parties is now focused on
whether to coordinate their candidate lists in districts
where partnership makes sense. End Summary.


2. (C) Key representatives of the major Algerian political
parties expressed satisfaction with the February 15 decree on
the elections. While there had been much speculation that
the elections would be scheduled concurrently with voting for
local councils (ref A),the decree made no mention of the
local elections. They are now expected to take place
sometime in the fall, as originally planned. The February 15
decree was a slap in the face of Prime Minister Belkhadem,
who had publicly called on President Bouteflika to combine
the elections. Political activists had told us that the FLN,
as the largest party, was best positioned to wage two
simultaneous campaigns and stood to benefit most from holding
combined elections. They also agreed, however, with Interior
Minister Zerhouni's public observation that holding
simultaneous elections was unworkable.

ELECTION TIMETABLE
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3. (C) The decree established the election timetable. New
voters and voters who have changed address since they last
voted have from February 18-28 to register their current
information with local officials if they want to cast a
ballot in May. (Note: Algerian election law requires that
all voters be given the opportunity to register or update a
previous voter registration in October each year, but the
ministry of interior has the option of declaring supplemental
registration periods, like the current one, in advance of
elections. End Note.) Political parties must submit their
candidate lists to the interior ministry no later than April
1, at which point the campaign will begin in earnest. Free
broadcast media access accorded to qualifying political
parties under Algerian law will begin 23 days before the
election (Algerian law requires media access for 21
consecutive days prior to the balloting, but also requires a
media blackout period starting two days before the vote). It
remains unclear when political parties will be able to review
the revised lists of registered voters. Party
representatives have told us that the interior ministry has
promised them a CD-ROM containing the data for all of
Algeria. The ministry has not given a delivery date,
however, and is not legally required to supply parties with
the data.

FACTORING ALLIANCES INTO PARTY LISTS
--------------


4. (C) On February 25, visiting NEA/MAG Director Hopkins and
PolEc Chief met with MPs from Islah (an opposition, Islamist
party); the Movement for a Society of Peace (MSP, an Islamist
party in the ruling coalition); and the FLN (the largest
party in the coalition); as well as with a senator from the
Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD, an opposition,
Berber-based party). All said their parties were fully
satisfied with the way the technical process was unfolding,
adding that the internal preparation of their lists of
candidates by wilaya (province) was their primary concern
between now and April 1. FLN MP (and Vice President) Sabah
Bounour observed that many members of her party were
questioning the benefit of remaining in the "presidential
alliance" with MSP and the National Rally for Democracy
(RND). MSP MP Mokri Abderezzak and RCD Senator Rachid Arabi
countered that even the FLN could not obtain an absolute
majority in the parliamentary elections and would need a
governing partner or partners. Bounour's observation was
reinforced in the media February 26, when Prime Minister
Belkhadem was quoted as having ruled out the creation of
common candidate lists among the three alliance parties.


5. (C) In a separate conversation, RCD National Communication
Secretary Mouhcene Belabbas -- whose party boycotted the last

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parliamentary elections -- affirmed that the real issue for
smaller political parties was deciding what, if any,
alliances to form in advance of submitting lists for the
various electoral districts. He observed that parties
wishing to form a coalition would need to decide among
themselves how to maximize potential votes for their alliance
and opt out of competition in districts where a partner party
had a greater chance of success. The coalition-building
process, not the creation of candidate lists themselves, was
the challenge in RCD's view.

COMMENT
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6. (C) Prime Minister Belkhadem has misstepped twice with the
president in as many months. In January, he called on
Bouteflika to reshuffle the cabinet -- a request met with
stony silence from the Presidency. In February, he
recommended publicly that the national and local elections be
held simultaneously, only to see the interior minister
announce within days that the parliamentary elections would
be held alone in May. A couple of senior retired officials
with close ties to the president told the Ambassador recently
that Bouteflika was irked by Belkhadem's efforts to pressure
him. The PM may now be showing public confidence about the
FLN's chances in the May elections, but the president's
double rebuff has sent the clear signal that, in terms of the
political process, it remains Bouteflika and not Belkhadem
who is very much in charge.
FORD