ALGERIAN LOCAL ELECTIONS NOVEMBER 29: WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ALGIERS 001727

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AG
SUBJECT: ALGERIAN LOCAL ELECTIONS NOVEMBER 29: WILL
ALGERIANS VOTE ?

REF: A. ALGIERS 1700


B. ALGIERS 680

C. ALGIERS 338

D. ALGIERS 1559

E. ALGIERS 1695

F. ALGIERS 1527

G. ALGIERS 619

H. ALGIERS 716

I. ALGIERS 1662

J. ALGIERS 647

K. ALGIERS 1344

Classified By: Ambassador Robert Ford; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Local elections will be held in Algeria on
November 29, but the big question is whether many Algerians
will actually vote. Throughout the campaign season,
elections' transparency and fairness have been called into
repeated question because of irregularities in the
pre-campaign period and of decisions meted out by the
Interior ministry. Some political parties view the absence
of an independent election monitoring commission as proof of
a fatal lack of transparency. Most of our contacts, and the
Algerian independent media, anticipate that voter turnout
will be low because the population does not view the process
as an opportunity for change and because many believe the
outcome has already been decided. A low turnout - say of
less than 35 percent of registered voters - would mirror the
dismal turnout of last May's legislative elections and
suggest that there is huge systemic problem in Algeria's
political process. Proposed press guidance for the
Department appears in paragraph 7. END SUMMARY

NUMBERS
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2. (U) According to the Interior ministry, there are
18,761,048 registered voters in Algeria. In the November
2007 local elections, candidates are running for positions on
city councils (APCs) and for positions in the wilaya
(provincial) legislatures (APW). Twenty-three political
parties are vying in the local elections for seats in 1,531
APCs and 48 APWs. The Interior ministry has said that 8,259
candidate lists have been accepted for APCs, out of 8,334
submitted. For the APWs, 323 of 330 candidate lists have
been accepted. Independents (groups of candidates who
declare no party affiliation before the election) have put
forward an additional 298 lists.

KEY ISSUES: WHO IS MINDING THE STORE, AND DOES ANYONE CARE?
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3. (C) The three most important issues to watch in this round
of local elections are voter turnout, the role of the
Interior ministry in the vote tallying process, and
monitoring of the process in the absence of an election
commission. Voter turnout is expected to be low, largely due
to voter apathy and disengagement (ref A). Turnout in the
May 2007 legislative elections was officially reported to be
35 percent (ref B),though many observers believe that figure
was significantly inflated by the government. The ratio of
spoiled ballots was also unusually high. Some commentators
have said that the publication of participation figures was
in itself an improvement over past practices and reflected an
increased level of transparency. While on the surface that
argument may have some merit, the consensus view among
political analysts is that most Algerians did not vote or
destroyed their ballots because they were simply
disinterested or did not view the political process as a
mechanism for positive change.


4. (C) As we have previously reported, the Interior ministry
exercises heavy influence over the election process (see ref
C). For example, in the lead-up to these elections Interior
used its control over candidate lists extensively as a means
of limiting who could stand for election. One tool used by
the ministry to vet and reject candidates was Police Record
No. 3, a non-public file containing information on
individuals' behavior. There is no independent verification
of the contents of the file and political party
representatives have expressed serious concerns about its
use. In addition, there were other efforts of the Interior

ALGIERS 00001727 002 OF 003


ministry that were seen as undermining the integrity of the
election process (see ref D). Hundreds of candidates were
rejected from party lists for the November 2007 election,
according to party officials. A variety of reasons were
offered and, upon appeal to the Algerian courts, many
candidates were reinstated. At the same time, candidates
were also rejected for suspect reasons (ref E),including a
former senator who was classified as a "threat to public
order." This irregular application of candidate registration
procedures appears further to have eroded confidence in the
election system (ref F).


5. (C) In contrast to the May 2007 legislative elections
(refs G, H),there is no independent election monitoring
commission for the upcoming local elections (ref I). GOA
officials have publicly stated that monitoring was expensive,
and officials from the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN)
have not been concerned by the absence of a commission for
these elections, noting that political parties and the
international media are expected to be present at polling
stations. Establishment of a monitoring commission is not a
legal requirement. However, ruling coalition member party
Movement for a Society of Peace (MSP) and opposition party
Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD) have both expressed
concern about its absence. In the November 28 edition of the
French-language daily Le Soir d'Algerie, MSP representatives
described the lack of a commission and the "ambiguity"
surrounding the entire election process as "two signs that
fool no one." The November 27 issue of best-selling el-Khabr
newspaper ran a story that warned that the Interior ministry
was taking unspecified steps to ensure a suitably high voter
turnout.


6. (U) The government-linked French-language daily newspaper
El Moudjahid averred November 27 that Algeria's electoral
campaign for local offices has ended "under excellent
conditions" and that the Interior ministry had taken measures
to ensure the "good rollout" of the voting process, but the
above examples and numerous press reports suggest otherwise.
Both government and opposition political parties have
expressed repeated public concern about the role of the
Interior ministry.


7. (C) COMMENT: We expect voter turnout to be low, partly
because of significant rainfall throughout the week that has
resulted in deaths, floods and collapsed bridges. Many
editorialists in Algeria's independent press have pointed to
the damage caused by the several inches of rain this week as
just one more indication of miserable governance that
previous elections have never helped address. There is a
sense of resignation among many Algerians that voting is
pointless and that their participation in any election will
change nothing (ref J). Both press reporting and our
conversations with ordinary Algerians suggest that there is a
solid stratum of the Algerian population that has willfully
disengaged from the country's political process -- a stratum
that cuts across demographics. In fact, the November 28
edition of the leading French-language daily El Watan
contained a two-page spread underscoring this point. As
Algeria grapples with Islamist extremists, the disconnect
between the voters and the government bodes ill for the
long-term future. A high turnout, while unlikely, would
suggest that the political process now engaged still has
traction enough to reinforce stability and diminish terrorist
groups' recruitment efforts. End Comment.

PROPOSED PRESS GUIDANCE
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8. (SBU) The Department may wish to draw on the following
points when developing press guidance on the elections.

-- The United States hopes that Algeria will gradually
develop credible democratic processes to foster better
governance and help undercut the call of extremists.

-- The November 29 election showed that Algeria still has a
distance to go towards a democratic process viewed as
credible inside Algeria.

-- There were problems with the compilation of candidate
lists and there was no independent election monitoring

ALGIERS 00001727 003 OF 003


commission, as there has been in the past.

-- One of the elements of a successful democracy is a broad
consensus on the processes and rules for campaigning and
administration of elections.

-- We hope that Algeria will develop this consensus before
the 2009 presidential elections.
FORD