OPEN TALK OF BOUTEFLIKA RUNNING FOR A THIRD TERM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 001629

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2027
TAGS: PGOV PINS AG
SUBJECT: OPEN TALK OF BOUTEFLIKA RUNNING FOR A THIRD TERM
IN 2009


Classified By: Ambassador Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) More Algerian politicos and officials anticipate
that the Algerian constitution will be amended to enable
President Bouteflika to run for a third term in 2009.
Mohamed Afif, a well-connected senior official in the
predominant National Liberation Front (FLN) told Ambassador
November 5 that the decision was already made. The
information was as good as official, he counseled. Afif
stated that the FLN would use its solid pluralities in the
Algerian upper and lower houses of the parliament to build
coalitions with independents and splinters from other parties
in favor of a majority that would vote to change the
constitution. He predicted that once these majorities became
evident, most other secular, nationalist parliamentarians
would join the bandwagon. (He underlined that the RND party,
whose leader Ahmed Ouyahia is often rumored as the next
president, would come over en bloc.) Thus, even if the
Islamists and Berber opposition parties opposed it, the
amendment would pass. Afif predicted the parliament would
move forward on this amendment during the first half of 2008.
The FLN, meanwhile, would hold a party congress and nominate
Bouteflika as its candidate. The election, he anticipated,
would occur on schedule in April 2009.


2. (C) Another senior member of the FLN party leadership,
Taha Khelia, told Ambassador November 4 that Bouteflika wants
to run for a third term and the FLN was concentrating hard on
the local elections to help pave the way. According to
Khelia, the FLN leadership (headed by Prime Minister
Belkhadem) is trying to put at the top of election lists men
who as mayors, city council presidents and provincial
legislature presidents will loudly proclaim support for
Bouteflika in 2008. The goal, Khelia claimed, is to make
Bouteflika appear as if he is responding to a popular appeal
to run. (Comment: We have already seen some small,
sycophantic rallies along these lines. Khelia worried that
nominating more apparatchiks to top government jobs in the
provinces would only hasten the demise of the FLN that is
already seriously out of touch with the Algerian street. End
Comment.)


3. (C) Well-connected Minister of Environment and Tourism
Cherif Rahmani told Ambassador over dinner November 5 that
Bouteflika will run for a third term. Rahmani claimed
Bouteflika wants a third term and when he announces publicly
that he will pursue it, all the other political formations in
the government coalition and most of the other political
parties will quickly fall in line and support him. (Comment:
Rahmani's remarks are especially important because he --
like Ouyahia -- is usually on the shortlist we hear as a
possible replacement for Bouteflika. Rahmani, a former top
Interior Ministry official and governor of Algiers, has
excellent ties into the security establishment. End Comment.)


4. (C) Afif, after self-assuredly stating that the
parliament would amend the constitution and Bouteflika would
run, carefully asked about the likely American reaction. The
Ambassador noted that it was not up to Washington to
determine whether or not the constitution should be amended
or Bouteflika should have a third term. He told Afif that we
would look most carefully at the process by which an
amendment moves forward. We would especially watch the
parliamentary debate and whether the opposition got to make
its views widely known to the Algerian public, and whether
there was any pressure put on opponents of the amendment by
the security services. We would obviously watch the election
process itself very closely as well. Lastly, the Ambassador
noted, we would want to see Bouteflika's vision for Algeria
and how he proposes to address serious problems given our
interest in Algerian stability and gradual political
evolution. Afif made no substantive comment.


5. (S) Comment: Parliamentary Speaker Ziari publicly
predicted a constitutional amendment last September, but the
talk quickly died. Now it is back. Bouteflika's health
remains an open question when people talk about a third term,
but there is no public information on his condition. Those
like the Canadian and outgoing Italian ambassadors who have
seen him in the past six weeks reported that he looks better
than he did last year. He has had a busier schedule in the
autumn of 2007 than he did in the autumn of 2006 too. One
knowledgeable former Presidency staffer predicted to us

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earlier this year that Bouteflika, who is unmarried and has
no children, would follow in the footsteps of his political
mentor, former President Boumedienne, and leave office only
upon death. The other big question is whether or not the
military and intelligence services would readily agree to a
third term. (It is not impossible that this renewed talk of
a third term is simply an effort by the pro-Bouteflika
faction to outflank opposition in the security
establishment.) If Bouteflika's health remains about as it
is now, and if the security services ultimately accept his
running again, we could see the momentum for an amendment and
Bouteflika candidacy move in the first part of 2008. We will
need to think carefully about what we say, publicly and
privately, about an amendment and the prospect of a third
term.
FORD