MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF OFFENSIVE WEAPONS,

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000954

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - LLOYD NEIGHBORS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF OFFENSIVE WEAPONS,
IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE


1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news
coverage from April 28-30 on the Taiwan authority's decision to
reject China's proposed route for the 2008 Olympic torch relay; on
the 3rd KMT-Communist Party of China forum held in Beijing on
Sunday; and on the year-end legislative elections and the 2008
presidential election. The pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged
a banner headline April 30 that read "Mainland [China] Upgrades
Sovereignty Level; Trouble Arises Regarding Taiwan's [Policy] to
Allow Chinese Tourists to Visit."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the United States' attitude
toward Taiwan's development of offensive weapons. The article said
Washington is more concerned about the long-range ballistic missiles
Taiwan is currently developing than the Hsiungfeng-2E cruise
missiles that Taiwan has developed. An analysis in the
pro-unification "United Daily News" said the United States' move to
wait until the last moment to prevent Taiwan from deploying the
Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles is a typical double-faced strategy
based on its own interests. With regard to Iraq, an editorial in
the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification "China Post"
commented on the U.S. Congress's decision last week to ask the Bush
administration to begin pulling out U.S. troops from Iraq. The
article said "The Oct. 1, 2007 deadline means that the end is near,
for Bush's war as well as for Bush himself." In terms of Olympic
torch relay issue, an editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty
Times" said as a result of China's plan to belittle Taiwan, the
island needs to be prepared not to participate in the 2008 Beijing
Olympic Games. An editorial in the pro-independence,
English-language "Taipei Times" also said it is difficult to see how
a compromise can be reached over the Olympic torch relay issue
without either side backing down. A "China Times" editorial,
however, urged Taiwan not to be absent from the Olympic Games. A
separate editorial in the English-language "China Post" also chimed
in by saying Taiwan's threat not to have its athletes participate in
the Olympic Games is a foolish and dangerous proposition. End
summary.


3. Taiwan's Development of Offensive Weapons

A) "Mystery behind [Taiwan's] Revelation of Its Offensive Weapons"

Mei Fu-hsing, director of the Taiwan Strait Security Research and
Analysis Center, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily"
[circulation: 520,000] (4/30):

"Regarding Taiwan's development of so-called 'offensive weapons,'
the United States' fundamental attitude is that 'it will not
proactively interfere as long as the weapons are not nuclear or
biochemical.' This is because the U.S. military is also aware that
Taiwan must be equipped with certain capabilities to attack specific
ground targets of the People's Liberation Army, so that it can lift
a siege [laid by the PLA] in the event of a cross-Strait conflict.
... But the United States' 'turning a blind eye' is built on the
tacit agreement that [Taiwan] can 'only do it without saying it.'
The Bush administration, which is already troubled by problems in
the Mideast and North Korea and is thus in desperate need of China's
cooperation, is getting increasingly annoyed by Taiwan politicians,
whose occasional remarks about attacking mainland China with the
island's self-produced missiles have triggered a reaction from
Beijing and thus created unnecessary trouble for the United States'
global strategic operations.

"The first time that Washington picked on Taiwan regarding this
issue was in August 2006, when the Bush administration decided to
disapprove tentatively a proposal by Taiwan's military to purchase
F-16 C/D fighter jets. It was generally believed that Washington's
decision not to sell the new fighter jets to Taiwan was a result of
Taiwan's failure to pass the arms procurement budget as of then,
which had been stalled for three years. But in reality, the U.S.
authorities' other major concern was that it was hoping to use the
disapproval to put pressure on Taiwan over the island's development
of counterattack weapons. The United States' goals are: First, it
wanted Taiwan's leaders to exercise restraint in terms of their
words and deeds, and second, it wanted to force Taiwan to abandon
its development of some sensitive counterattack weapons. ...
Sources said that the United States is more concerned about the
long-range ballistic missiles that Taiwan is still striving to
develop than the Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles that Taiwan has
already successfully developed. In this context, the ballistic
missiles will most likely become the target that Washington wants to
persuade Taiwan to abandon. ..."

B) "In Calling for a Halt when [the Missiles] Are about to be
Deployed, the United States Is Using a Double-Faced Strategy"

Journalist Lu Teh-yun noted in an analysis in the pro-unification
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (4/30):


IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE


"The U.S. National Security Council and the State Department plan to
impose pressure to halt Taiwan's development and deployment of
missiles that are capable of attacking mainland China. The plan by
Taiwan's Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology to develop
Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles has been going on for over six years.
How is it possible that the United States was not aware of it? But
the United States' decision to wait until the last moment to
interrupt the plan was in reality a move made based on its own
interests.

"The United States believes that, based on previous lessons it has
learned, the Taiwan authorities, when dealing with the issue of
unification and independence and cross-Strait disputes, tend to use
words and deeds to provoke Beijing; Taiwan's pushing toward the
outer limit [that Washington] can tolerate has got on the United
States' nerves. Washington can never stop worrying in the face of
the Taiwan authorities' calls for referenda, writing a new
constitution, and [calling for] one country on each side of the
Taiwan Strait

"What Washington cares about is that Taiwan has constantly tried to
drag the United States into the [cross-Strait] quagmire, and that it
intends to raise cross-Strait conflicts to the level of
confrontation between Washington and Beijing. The United States
believes that all Taiwan needs are defensive weapons that can help
the island resist attacks from Beijing, and that the island might
hit [China's] strategic locations or points once it is in possession
of offensive weapons. This explains why the United States has been
monitoring every move of Taiwan, including its development of
offensive weapons and whether it has obtained nuclear weapons. ...

"The Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles developed by the Chung-Shan
Institute of Science and Technology have a capability similar to
that of the United States' Tomahawk missiles. The development of
such missiles has been going on for six years, but the United States
purposely overlooked it during this period of time. The fact that
Washington waited until the critical moment when Taiwan is about to
produce and deploy these missiles to stop the island is a typical
two-pronged strategy.

"History showed that the United States has previously stopped Taiwan
from developing Tien Ma mid-range ballistic missiles and atomic
bombs, and it also waited until these projects were about to
succeed. In addition to its desire to dictate the regional
strategic balance, Washington also intended to use Taiwan's
developing capabilities as a bargaining chip to restrain Beijing.
By demanding that Taiwan abandon its offensive weapons, Washington
can ask Beijing to show some goodwill gestures. It can also drop a
hint to Beijing that if the latter insists on threatening
cross-Strait peace, the United States does not need to launch
Tomahawk missiles; it can simply let go and let Taiwan do whatever
it pleases."


4. Iraq

"Checks and Balances"

The conservative, pro-unification "China Post" [circulation: 30,000]
editorialized (4/30):

"It is all but certain that President Bush will lose the war in
Iraq, now that the Democrat-controlled Congress is determined to
call it quits. A time table has been set for U.S. troops to pull
out, contrary to the president's request for a surge. The U.S.
Congress is working effectively to check Bush's power. ... The
timetable is certain to doom President Bush's high-stakes gambles in
Iraq. He succeeded only in taking out Saddam Hussein, but he will
not be remembered as a victor. His dream for Iraq oil, which he had
thought would pay for Iraq's post-war reconstruction, has turned
into a nightmare. A democratic Iraq is now the killing fields of
sectarian war. ...

"What can be expected is that President Bush will keep fighting,
with his veto, against what a Republican senator called a surrender
in Iraq. The Oct. 1, 2007 deadline means that the end is near, for
Bush's war as well as for Bush himself. The days are numbered, so
are the days of suffering and bloodshed. The U.S. Congress should
get credit for doing its job well. Democracy works only when there
are effective checks and balances. This week we have seen how
democracy is working in the United States and why democracy is the
worst political system except all others that have been experimented
with from time to time, as so aptly described by Sir Winston
Churchill."


5. Olympic Torch Relay Issue

A) "Taiwan Needs to Be Prepared Not to Participate in Beijing's
IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE

Olympic Games"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 500,000]
editorialized (4/28):

"... Using the proposed [Olympic] torch route to belittle Taiwan is
just the latest move in China's application of united-front tactics
toward Taiwan in the [run-up to] Olympic Games. China's intention
is evident: [Beijing's] arrangement for the torch to take a turn in
the north and bypass Taiwan to arrive in Vietnam, and then to go
from Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City to Taipei and to Hong Kong, Macau,
and other inland cities of China was aimed at making Taipei the
'first stop of [China's] domestic route.' Also, its calling Taiwan
'China, Taipei' will also help reinforce the false image in the
international community that Taiwan is a province of China. ..."

B) "Good Riddance to the Olympic Torch"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (4/28):

"The disingenuousness of the International Olympic Committee (IOC)
is breathtaking. To allow China to host an Olympics at all should
have been warning enough; for IOC officials to now feign surprise at
Taiwan's unhappiness with its proposed torch route suggests that
there are still many feeble words and actions to come from them in
the months to come. ... The presence of the torch was always going
to be 'political'; the real question was how the politics was going
to be employed and whether an understanding was ever possible
between Taipei and Beijing. ... It is difficult to see how a
compromise can be reached without either side backing down, and
neither side will be inclined to do so. ..."

C) Aborted [Olympic] Torch Relay [to Taiwan] Is a Small Matter, but
[Taiwan's] Absence from the Olympic Games Will Be a Huge Issue"

The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (4/28):

"... It has been forty years since the Olympic torch last entered
Taiwan. It will not be such a big loss for the island if the torch
does not come to Taiwan this time. But what is really worth noting
is whether Taiwan will decide not even to participate in the 2008
Olympic Games in Beijing. Chances are that this could really
happen, given the DPP government's manipulative approach in raising
the [level of] confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan
Strait. ... Perhaps there is little chance of making any change
regarding the torch relay issue, but one must not allow political
manipulation to sabotage [the island's] participation in the Olympic
Games. ..."

D) "Torch Furor Getting Carried Away"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (4/29):

"... We support the principle of avoiding activities that diminish
the status of our government and bolster Beijing's illegitimate
claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. However, we strongly disagree
with the way that President Chen Shui-bian and Premier Su
Tseng-chang have distorted the Olympic torch relay route issue and

SIPDIS
turned it into an international controversy. ... If President Chan
and his supporters did not want the Olympic torch to pass through
Taiwan on its way to mainland China, we would have preferred to hear
them simply say so. But warning the international community that
Taiwan's athletes might not participate in the Olympic Games is a
foolish and even dangerous proposition that could end up causing
tremendous harm to us. ..."

YOUNG