SOMALIA: HAWIYE CLAN MANEUVERS FOR ASCENDANCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000953

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KISL ET ER SO DJ
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: HAWIYE CLAN MANEUVERS FOR ASCENDANCY
WITHIN TFG

REF: ASMARA 316 (NOTAL)

Classified By: ANTHONY FISHER, PAO. REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Contacts in Ethiopia remark that Hawiye
dissident MPs, led by former Transitional Federal
Government of Somalia (TFG) Speaker of Parliament Sharif
Hassan Sheikh Adan and journeying through Eritrea and
Djibouti, are trying to secure support as a potential
alternative leadership to the TFG, by playing on regional
animosities to Ethiopia. While Eritrea may give some
support, cautious Djibouti will certainly punt in favor of
national reconciliation. END SUMMARY.

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HAWIYE DISSIDENTS LOOK TO ERITREA FOR SUPPORT
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2. (C) Somalia's Hawiye clan in the past month has embarked
on a campaign in neighboring countries to improve their
chances to emerge more politically powerful after coming
reconciliation talks now scheduled for May 16. Col.
Mohammed Ibrahim Gober (strictly protect) a former chief of
security for Mogadishu during Siad Barre's administration,
informed PAO on February 6 that 42 parliamentarians,
primarily from the Hawiye clan and led by Somalia's
ex-speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, had
gone to Asmara for meetings with Eritrea's government
(GSE). (NOTE: In November 2006, Hassan traveled to
Mogadishu to broker an agreement with the Council of
Islamic Courts (CIC),without the approval of the President
or Prime Minister of Somalia. END NOTE.) The Hawiye,
according to Gober, are angling to eventually assume the
presidency of the TFG.

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ERITREA, THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, IS MY FRIEND
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3. (C) Subsequent reports from PAO's Somali contact, Ahmed
Ibrahim (strictly protect) and other Somali Internet news
agencies, indicate that Adan is trying to establish an
opposition camp in Eritrea with the GSE's support. Ahmed
opined that the move by the opposition MPs was intended to
get Eritrean support, and part of an effort to secure
outside support to eventually take over Somalia, as well as
to oust African Union peacekeepers and the Ethiopians. On
March 15, the TFG in Baidoa condemned any effort to form a
second 'Somalia government' in Eritrea, giving the
dissident parliamentarians thirty days for all the MPs
outside the country to return to Baidoa, or be dismissed
from their positions. The MPs earlier had been prohibited
from returning to Parliament. So far, none of the
dissident MPs, including Adan, have returned. Ahmed added
that the dissident MPs will be forming a political
organization later this month, whose intent is opposition
to Ethiopian occupation of Somalia, and to the Ugandan and
other international peacekeepers. According to Ahmed, the
group led by Adan is sympathetic to the former CIC, but
they do not have the same radical Salafist agenda.

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DISSIDENTS LOOK TO SWAY DJIBOUTI
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4. (C) According to Ahmed, 19 parliamentarians in the group
went to Djibouti as guests of the Djibouti government.
Queried by the PAO as to why the dissident MPs were seeking
Djiboutian President Guelleh's support, Ahmed replied that
although Guelleh was an Issa, Djibouti had improved
relations with Eritrea. Since Eritrea opposed Ethiopia,
Djibouti may be swayed. Further, Ahmed claimed that given
President Guelleh's close ties to all clans in Somalia
(including, briefly, some of the Islamic Court
representatives such as CIC Consultative Committee Chairman
Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys),Guelleh could be receptive to
the dissidents approach.

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PLAYING ON DJIBOUTIAN FEARS

ADDIS ABAB 00000953 002 OF 002


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5. (C) Ahmed said that the dissidents would try to play on
fears the Djiboutians may have, about relations with
Ethiopia, to gain Djibouti's support. This includes
Ethiopia's efforts to dominate Djibouti economically, and
any differences between the Issa tribes in Ethiopia and
Issa leadership in Djibouti.


6. (C) COMMENT: The dissident MPs may be attempting to
exploit the historical enmity of Eritrea, and to a lesser
extent Djibouti, toward Ethiopia. Eritrea hosts some 13
liberation groups in varying degrees of opposition to
Ethiopia, and may want to add these dissident MPs to the
list. Swaying the Djiboutians will be difficult, given
their support for national reconciliation in Somalia, and
opposition to dissident movements which undercut stability
and are bad for business. END COMMENT.


7. (U) Embassies Asmara, Djibouti, and Nairobi have
cleared.
YAMAMOTO