ETHIOPIA ON VIOLENCE IN MOGADISHU: REACH OUT TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000918

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA ON VIOLENCE IN MOGADISHU: REACH OUT TO
HAWIYE BUT ISOLATE REBEL ELEMENTS

REF: A. NAIROBI 1336 (NOTAL)


B. NAIROBI 1335 (NOTAL)

C. NAIROBI 1322 (NOTAL)

D. ASMARA 316 (NOTAL)

E. ADDIS ABABA 874 (NOTAL)

F. ADDIS ABABA 858

G. ADDIS ABABA 853

H. 03/24/2007 EMBASSY NAIROBI-EMBASSY ADDIS TELCON
(AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/NF) Prior to, and in response to, intensified
fighting in Mogadishu last week, Embassy Addis raised
concerns with the Ethiopian Government on the situation in
Somalia. In conversations with Embassy Nairobi, we reported
on contacts with the ENDF and intelligence service. We
called on the Chief of Staff, General Samora, on March 21,
and met with State Minister of Foreign Affairs Takeda on
March 20 and later in the week; and continued contact with
Takeda by phone through the weekend. The Ethiopians have
been consistent in their response, noting that they have been
working with President Abdullahi Yusuf and Somalia's
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) on security
arrangements for Mogadishu. The Prime Minister was clear in
our March 19 meeting (ref f) that they pushed Yusuf
(including bringing him to Addis) on a comprehensive security
plan that includes political dialogue with the Hawiye clan
elders. The Prime Minister also emphasized the need for the
TFG to handle disarmament in Mogadishu carefully, so as not
to inflame clan rivalry. Embassy Nairobi,s report (ref b)
on Ethiopian outreach to the Hawiye clan refers to activities
started in earnest a couple of weeks before. Foreign
Minister Seyoum was in Mogadishu over a week ago, meeting
with Hawiye and other clan elders. He reported, according to
the Foreign Ministry, that there was general consensus on a
need for a dialogue and the need to end the violence in
Mogadishu.


2. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles noted that Ethiopia has
reached out to the various clan elders, urging them not only
to support the TFG, but also to support the upcoming
reconciliation conference in April, which the Ethiopians
consider critical to stability in Somalia. The Prime
Minister expounded to us on Ethiopia,s work with the TFG on
security of Mogadishu. While the TFG emphasized military
action, the Prime Minister stressed political outreach to the
clan elders as an essential element. The clans would be able
to isolate rebel groups and elements opposed to
reconciliation. The Prime Minister stated that Ethiopian
troops would act militarily with the TFG only against rebel
elements, and not the clans.


3. (S/NF) General Samora told Ambassador last week that the
ENDF had completed most of its "initial" withdrawal plans
from Somalia, but reaffirmed the Prime Minister,s remarks to
us that the ENDF would continue to keep a presence in
Somalia, in order to support the security of the TFG, as well
as of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM),and to
work with the TFG on enhancing security in Mogadishu before
the reconciliation conference. It appears to us that the
ENDF has concentrated its force in the Mogadishu and Baidoa
areas. It is unclear how many ENDF troops there are, but we
estimate they number approximately 7,000: down from the over
15,000 troops at the height of the conflict in
December/January.


4. (S/NF) The Ethiopians are clearly focused on Mogadishu as
the center of gravity for the stability of Somalia. The
Prime Minister told the press last week that Somalia is
stable and "relatively" calm. It is Mogadishu, however,
which faces challenges. From our numerous contacts with the
Ethiopians, securing Mogadishu is a top priority,
particularly in preparation for the reconciliation
conference. The Prime Minister and his senior staff know the
high risks of the use of force, but also stress that if
Mogadishu falls into violence, Somalia,s stability would be
at peril. The Prime Minister told us that the TFG
effectively has three to six months to root out the core of

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the rebel elements; otherwise, Mogadishu could fall into
chaos.


5. (S/NF) We will continue to monitor ENDF response/actions
in Somalia. While noting our requests and that of the AU for
the ENDF to provide support for AMISOM and the TFG, including
force protection at the sea and airport, we continue to
stress to the Ethiopians their plan of operation of
highlighting political dialogue, and the risk of alienating
Somali clan support should the ENDF resort primarily to
force. We will call on Foreign Minister Seyoum, as soon as
he returns to Addis from his foreign travels. While we
intend to call on the Prime Minister next week, we will
coordinate with Embassy Nairobi should this be required
sooner. In the meantime, we remain in close contact with the
ENDF, intelligence, and other senior Ethiopian officials.
YAMAMOTO