SOMALIA: ETHIOPIAN FONMIN UPBEAT ON TFG

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000498

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER AND DAS SWAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPKO ET SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ETHIOPIAN FONMIN UPBEAT ON TFG
RECONCILIATION EFFORTS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 327 (NOTAL)

Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR KEVIN SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AN
D (D).


1. (S) SUMMARY: Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum told the
Ambassador that he was more optimistic than ever about the
prospects for TFG-led reconciliation efforts in Somalia
following his recent trip to Baidoa. Seyoum cited the
appointment of an Ayr sub-clan leader as the new minister of
justice, as well as plans for a genuine, grassroots-based
reconciliation process as the basis for his upbeat
assessment. He expected that influential clan leaders from
various Hawiye/Hebr-gedir groups would soon be making public
statements about their commitment to discipline clan members
who fomented violence in Mogadishu and elsewhere in southern
Somalia. The Foreign Minister also pointed to the imminent
deployment of a 10,000-strong TFG militia and said he
expected that AMISOM troops could focus their efforts on
training and supporting this TFG militia. Seyoum also asked
for USG assistance in getting senior Kenyan officials to
exercise more control over mid-level security officials who
appeared to be sheltering or expediting the escape of foreign
fighters from the former CIC. He added that Western
governments should direct to the TFG their inquiries about
the status of their citizens who were arrested when the CIC
collapsed. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin called in the
Ambassador February 19 primarily to underscore the urgency of
the GOE's request for Title I food assistance to counter
rising grain prices in urban qQ#uQQnt Abdullahi
Yusuf. Acting Director General for Europe and the Americas
Almaz Amaha joined Seyoum.

-------------- -
TFG GAINING COOPERATION OF HAWIYE CLAN LEADERS
-------------- -


3. (C) Seyoum, who has taken the lead for the GOE in working
with the Somali TFG for some time, told the Ambassador that
he was more optimistic than ever about the TFG's prospects
for bringing peace and stability in Somalia following his
visit to Baidoa on Feb. 13. He described the political
situation as "much better than 15 days ago" and added that
"even if Ethiopian forces withdrew tomorrow, things would not
fall apart."


4. (C) The Foreign Minister based his upbeat assessment in
large part on positive and effective steps taken recently by
the TFG to broaden its base of support and win over former
foes. One such step was appointing a member of the Ayr
sub-clan as the new Justice Minister. Seyoum said this
appointment provided Ayr clan leaders with credible
assurances that outstanding property claims against the Ayr
sub-clan would be resolved fairly (reftel). He also noted
that Ayr sub-clan representatives who had visited Addis the
previous week had promised the GOE that they were willing to
resolve these land issues and would be open to a variety of
alternatives for doing so. Seyoum also pointed out that a
member of the Hebr Gedir sub-clan, also Hawiyes, had been
appointed deputy mayor of Mogadishu. "They can't complain
now about their representation in the TFG, and have
recognized these gestures," the Foreign Minister added. As
evidence of this progress, Seyoum said that a number of
Hawiye leaders would soon take to the airwaves in Mogadishu
to make clear that they would not support or tolerate clan
members who fomented violence. Former Transitional National
Government (TNG) President Abdikhassim Salad Hassan was now
on board with TFG efforts would be among them, he added.


-------------- -
RECONCILIATION PROCESS BROAD, DEEP AND GENUINE
-------------- -


5. (C) According to the Foreign Minister, President Yusuf is
fully committed to a genuine and credible process of national
reconciliation. Yusuf intends to appoint 30 representatives

ADDIS ABAB 00000498 002 OF 003


broadly representative of clan groupings to a national
commission for reconciliation. As chair, the TFG president
will name a Hawiye leader who will garner broad support and
who will not be seen as beholden to Yusuf. Seyoum claimed
that he had promised not to reveal the name of the commission
chair, but said that the selection convinced him (Seyoum)
that Yusuf was serious about the process. Yusuf said told
the Ethiopian Foreign Minister that he would give general
instructions to the reconciliation commission, but would not
seek to dominate it.


6. (C) Yusuf had also laid out for Seyoum his plans to call
for local reconciliation conferences in each region of the
country, which would lead to the formation of regional
councils, and eventually formal legislatures at the local
level. These local bodies would have to approve national
government officials in those areas. These regional councils
would also choose representatives to send to a national
reconciliation conference that would be based on the
Transitional Charter and the 4.5 formula of clan
representation. The Diaspora would also be included in the
conference. Seyoum told the Ambassador that it was unclear
how big the national conference would be, but he had heard
estimates ranging from 800 to 3,000 participants. It might
last as long as 60 days. A focused agenda would be key, the
Foreign Minister said; the national reconciliation council
would take the lead in developing it. Seyoum said he
expected the outcome should be a few strategic decisions,
which might include TFG restructuring. It was essential that
the process be owned by Somalis, he said, but also that
Somali leaders take responsibility for their own affairs and
deliver results for the Somali people. Seyoum recommended
that the USG remain engaged.

-------------- --------------
TFG MILITIA AND POLICE WILL IMPROVE SECURITY IN MOGADISHU
-------------- --------------


7. (C) The Foreign Minister told the Ambassador that he
expected that currently encamped TFG militia numbering 10,00
strong would fully deploy within the next week, with half
going to Mogadishu to stem the violence taking place there.
Some militia would also deploy in Kismayo and in
south-central Somalia. The troops had already received some
training, but would receive more on the job, including from
AMISOM troops once they deployed. Yusuf had told Seyoum that
over the last several weeks the TFG had addressed issues
related to clan balance in the militia, combining large
numbers of both Darood, Hawiye and other recruits. In
addition, the TFG currently had about 800 trained police
officers, but hoped to raise that number to 5,000 within a
few weeks. (Seyoum said he thought 3 months was a more
realistic time-frame.)

-------------- --------------
MID-LEVEL KENYAN OFFICIALS PROTECTING FOREIGN FIGHTERS
-------------- --------------


8. (S) The Ambassador told Seyoum that the USG had received a
number of inquiries from European countries concerning the
fate of European nationals who had reportedly been arrested
either in Kenya or Somalia following the collapse of the CIC.
The Ambassador said that the USG had told European
governments to discuss these issues directly with the Kenyan
government. The Ethiopian Foreign Minister suggested that
interested governments also contact the TFG directly
concerning the status of those arrested.


9. (S) Seyoum also asked for assistance from U.S.
intelligence officers -- particularly those in Nairobi -- in
tracking the whereabouts of a number of "important people"
that had likely been detained at the local level in Kenya.
Seyoum said that reliable GOE intelligence had determined
that a number of Eritrean and other foreign fighters had been
arrested and detained in Garissa, but that senior-level
Kenyan officials claimed they had no knowledge of their
whereabouts. Seyoum said the GOE strongly suspected that
mid-level Kenyan officials were holding the suspects, not
informing their superiors and seeking to "sell" the suspects
their freedom. He said that an Eritrean colonel in the
Eritrean Embassy in Nairobi had been actively cultivating
contacts with Kenyan security officials for this purpose. He
asked that U.S. officials follow-up to prevent this from

ADDIS ABAB 00000498 003 OF 003


happening. The Ambassador promised to raise the issue with
the Department.
YAMAMOTO