Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA456
2007-02-13 14:47:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: MANAGING TENSIONS, PROMOTING

Tags:  PREL KPKO MOPS ET ER 
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FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4605
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000456 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER AND DAS SWAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2017
TAGS: PREL KPKO MOPS ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: MANAGING TENSIONS, PROMOTING
DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

REF: ADDIS 418

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000456

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER AND DAS SWAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2017
TAGS: PREL KPKO MOPS ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: MANAGING TENSIONS, PROMOTING
DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

REF: ADDIS 418

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) Summary: Ethiopian forces remain in defensive
positions despite increased Eritrean incursions in the TSZ,
an offensive deployment of Eritrean tanks in the TSZ near
Bure and Eritrean attacks on border posts which have resulted
in some Ethiopian civilian casualties. Special
Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG),Ambassador
Azouz Ennifar, presented a pessimistic view of the situation
along the border to the diplomatic corps in Addis on February
8 (Reftel),noting Eritrea,s clear intention to move into
most of the TSZ. Despite Prime Minister Meles' stress on a
defensive posture, there is growing fear among diplomats and
the Ethiopian military that Eritrea is pushing its military
posture along the border beyond common sense and could
potentially trigger another round of fighting. Norway,s
former special advisor and currently Ambassador to Ethiopia,
Jens Petter Kjemprud, recently returned from Asmara. He
noted that there is an outside hope to renew dialogue with
President Isaias, pointing to a possible change of heart by
Eritrea based on its failed efforts in Somalia in supporting
extremist elements. While Meles' clear focus is on
stabilizing Somalia and he does not want another war with
Eritrea, GOE officials view Eritrea as pushing to a possible
direct conflict. End summary.

--------------
Deteriorating Situation Along the Border
--------------


2. (S/NF) SRSG Ambassador Ennifar told Ambassador during
several private meetings of his deep concern about increased
Eritrean incursions into the TSZ. These signal a clear
intention by Eritrea to control the TSZ and eliminate the TSZ
as a buffer with Ethiopia, he said. Eritrea,s defiance of
UNSC 1640 in restricting UN operations has made it extremely
difficult for UNMEE to monitor most of the border and
specifically violations made by Eritrean forces. Despite
Eritrea,s restrictions, Ennifar noted that in a brief period

UNMEE, noted 17 violations of the TSZ, mostly by Eritrean
forces. If Eritrea lifted restrictions on UNMEE flight
operations, UNMEE would be able to verify the extent and
impact of Eritrea,s incursions into the TSZ as well as
Ethiopian responses. Overall, Ennifar noted that it was
relatively easier to monitor Ethiopian troop movement.


3. (S/NF) Also of concern to Ennifar was the placement of a
dozen Eritrean tanks and 1,700 Eritrean troops in the TSZ
near Bure, as well as the presence of Ethiopian tanks on
Ethiopia's side of the border in the same area. There are
also increased Eritrean activities along the border which
have resulted in Ethiopian civilian casualties. Prime
Minister Meles has downplayed Eritrea,s activities in
private talks with the Ambassador, noting that Ethiopia will
maintain its defensive posture and keep Isaias "in a box."
But in a separate conversation with Chief of Staff Samora,
activities by Eritrea appeared to be a growing concern to the
Ethiopian military, especially Ethiopian civilian casualties
at the hands of Eritrean forces along the border. Diplomats
here have raised concerns that Eritrea is pushing its
incursions into the TSZ beyond reason and could trigger
renewed conflict.

--------------
Isaias Open to New Diplomatic Efforts?
--------------


4. (S/NF) Norway,s Ambassador to Ethiopia and former
special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jens Petter Kjemprud,
who recently returned from a visit to Asmara, told the
Ambassador that there is an outside chance that Isaias may be
receptive to some type of diplomatic efforts to resolve
tensions with Ethiopia. The Norwegian Ambassador opined that
based on his discussions with Yemane Ghebreab, Eritrea was
shaken by its failed Somalia policy. Eritrea,s deployment
of advisors to support extremist elements fighting Ethiopia
and the TFG has undercut its diplomatic standing; Eritrea may
now be looking for a way to enhance its image, Kjemprud
suggested. Ambassador Kjemprud said Yemane will be in Norway
soon and the GON will attempt to engage Yemane to determine

ADDIS ABAB 00000456 002 OF 002


how far Norway can go in pushing for some type of dialogue
with Eritrea, leading to possible peace talks or
normalization discussions between Eritrea and Ethiopia.


5. (S/NF) Ambassador Yamamoto encouraged Norway to continue
its efforts, but to also keep Washington informed.
Ambassador cautioned that Norway should not count on the U.S.
to become involved at this point, given President Isaias,
restrictions on U.S. activities in Eritrea and strong
criticism of the U.S. The Norwegian Ambassador also noted
that other countries like Japan and the Netherlands could be
helpful, given their neutrality and support for a peace
process.

--------------
Comment: Ethiopia Still Not Spoiling to Fight
--------------


6. (S/NF) Norway,s efforts to ease border tensions will be
a long shot at best. For the present, Somalia and internal
stability are Prime Minister Meles, top concerns. He is
looking at the Eritrean border as a diversion from the more
pressing strategic interests of stabilizing Somalia and
resolving internal political issues. Until Somalia is
settled, Meles is taking a defensive posture and keeping his
forces in line and not reacting to Eritrean incursions into
the TSZ or Ethiopian civilian casualties due to Eritrean
attacks. Ethiopian officials we have met feel that despite
Isaias, failures in Somalia to weaken Ethiopia through a
proxy war, Isaias may still try to push beyond common sense
in other efforts to undercut Ethiopia, and his actions could
eventually lead to direct conflict.
WILGUS