ETHIOPIA: ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003376

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017
TAGS: PBTS KPKO MOPS PREF PREL ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, FOR
NOW

Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael C. Gonzales for Reasons
1.4 (b)(d).


1. (C//NF) SUMMARY. On November 18-19, PolOff and RefCoord
traveled to Shire/Inda Silase in northwest Tigray to meet
with United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)
military observers (milobs) and separately with Ethiopian
Administration of Refugees and Returnee Affairs (ARRA)
officials at the Eritrean refugee registration center in Inda
Baguna. UNMEE milobs said they had seen little Ethiopian
military activity since the end of October, but assessed the
army would need only 2-3 days to transition to an offensive
military posture. At the Inda Baguna refugee center, the
number of Eritrean refugees during October had increased to
670, more than twice the previous month's average--probably
because of increased border tensions and the end of the rainy
season which made cross-border movement easier as young men
were attempting to escape Eritrean military service. Embassy
officers traveling between Axum, Inda Silase, and Inda
Baguna--the only east-west road in northern Tigray--observed
minimal military activity. END SUMMARY.

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SECTOR WEST QUIET...
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2. (C//NF) The military observers at UNMEE Team Site Inda
Silase reported that they had seen minimal Ethiopian National
Defense Force (ENDF) activity since late October when the
ENDF rotated the 31st infantry division off of the front
lines near Badme--where it had been deployed for several
years--and replaced it with the 22nd division previously
located outside of the Adjacent Area. With the Team Site
situated directly on the main road, the milobs noted they
were able to observe all traffic, day and night, moving
towards Badme coming from either ENDF Central Command
HQs--the HQs for Sector West--in Inda Silase, Adigrat to the
East, or Gonder to the south. UNMEE milobs said they
patrolled Central Command HQs and ENDF regimental garrisons
in the area 2-3 times a day. The milobs stated they had good
freedom of movement in the sector and that the ENDF was
generally cooperative.

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...BUT ETHIOPIAN MILITARY READINESS LEVEL HIGH
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3. (C//NF) Despite the lack of recent military activity,
the milobs assessed that the ENDF would need only 2-3 days to
transition into an offensive posture if Ethiopia was
preparing to initiate war, although they questioned whether
the military had sufficient logistic stockpiles to sustain a
long operation. One milob commented that he had not seen a
large buildup of supplies. The milobs reported that several
batteries of the ENDF's new Chinese 155mm towed artillery
pieces were kept inside shelters in travel mode hitched to
trucks ready to be deployed on short notice.


4. (C//NF) The milobs said they would be among the first to
detect any change in the ENDF's military posture because the
milobs would see the activity at Central Command HQ including
from the truck transportation unit based there. They also
reported that the large ENDF military hospital at Adi Hageray
remained in caretaker status. The milobs noted the
activation of this hospital would be a key indicator of
impending conflict. They also reported that UNMEE had been
invited to observe some parts of the ENDF's annual dry season
training cycle scheduled to begin in the coming weeks.

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ERITREAN REFUGEE INFLOW ON THE RISE
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5. (C//NF) At the Eritrean refugee registration center in
Inda Baguna, an ARRA official noted that during October they
had registered 670 new Eritrean refugees, more than double
the previous monthly average. The official speculated that
the increase may be a result of the recent political problems
between Ethiopia and Eritrea--most of the refugees were young
men who appeared to be escaping military service--but also

ADDIS ABAB 00003376 002 OF 002


noted that the end of the rainy season typically results in
an increase as movement across the border becomes easier.


6. (C//NF) Embassy officers observed approximately 30 young
Eritrean men at the center who had come across the border in
the previous week, many of whom were still wearing their
Eritrean army uniforms and the iconic "shida" black plastic
sandals. The refugees insisted they were all civilians,
despite being in uniform, and declined to answer questions
about their experiences because, according to a local NGO
worker, the refugees feared being identified in the media and
the effect that would have on their families' safety back in
Eritrea. The NGO worker reported that the Eritrean military
had recently tightened their control of the border to limit
escape and that more Eritreans have been getting killed
attempting to leave Eritrea.

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THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED
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7. (C//NF) In driving from Axum to Inda Silase to Inda
Baguna and back--the only east-west road between Sector
Central and Sector West in Tigray--Embassy officers observed
more camels than soldiers as the visible military presence
was minimal and saw no obvious indication of heightened
military tensions. Tigray was in peak harvest time as men,
women, and children were busy harvesting teff by hand as they
have done in the region for centuries. Primarily, the only
apparent reminders of war were those of wars past with many
abandoned tanks and armored vehicles left to rust in the sun
and children playing on 500 lb bomb casings in roadside
villages. Embassy officers saw little activity at ENDF
Central Command HQ and occasionally passed scattered Tigrean
militia, old men with AK-47s, walking along the road at the
end of the harvest day.

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COMMENT
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8. (C//NF) Although the ENDF is clearly at a high state of
military readiness, Post would expect to see increased
activity along the border area if Ethiopia was considering
taking military action prior to the November 30
Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission demarcation by
geographic coordinates. The lack of truck movement, day or
night, and the empty hospital are strong indicators that
Ethiopia remains in a defensive posture. The visit
highlighted the prime location of the UNMEE Team Site and the
utility of sustaining UNMEE, for its potential early-warning
role, after its current mandate expires. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO