ETHIOPIA: UN A/SYG FOR PEACEKEEPING MULET ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003337

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: UN A/SYG FOR PEACEKEEPING MULET ON
BORDER DEMARCATION AND SOMALIA


Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales for Reasons 1.
4 (b)


1. (C//NF) SUMMARY. On November 8 PolCouns and Poloff
attended a "Friends of UNMEE" meeting where newly appointed
UN Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping (A/SYG)
Edmond Mulet briefed the resident diplomatic community on his
views of the Ethiopian-Eritrean border situation and Somalia.
Mulet, who was on a familiarization trip to the region, said
that in his view demarcation of the Ethiopian-Eritrean border
by geographic coordinates would not fulfill the
Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission's (EEBC) mandate. He also
stated that if the EEBC were to be disbanded, the UN would be
available to assist with any post-EEBC process. Ethiopian
Prime Minister told Mulet in a November 7 meeting that
Ethiopia would not start a war with Eritrea even if provoked.
On Somalia, Mulet made it clear that the UN would not send
peacekeepers unless the situation improved and there was a
peace to keep. He offered that a multinational force
authorized by the UN might be a better option in the near
term. The A/SYG also noted that the African Union (AU) was
preparing to engage diplomatically on both the
Ethiopian-Eritrean border issue and Somalia. END SUMMARY.

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UNSC SHOULD NOT ENDORSE EEBC "VIRTUAL DEMARCATION"
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2. (C//NF) Mulet opened by commenting that in his personal
opinion demarcation of the Ethiopian-Eritrean border by
geographic coordinates would not fulfill the EEBC's mandate
and that the UNSC should not endorse the EEBC's decision.
Rather, the EEBC's job was not complete until pillars had
been placed on the ground. He further remarked that both
parties want demarcation on the ground. Mulet also
personally believed that the Ethiopian government wanted the
EEBC to fade away opening the door to a new and as yet
undefined mechanism for resolving the differences between the
two countries.


3. (C//NF) Mulet said the UNSC should advise the EEBC that
any endorsement of demarcation by coordinates would alienate
Ethiopia. He thought that either the parties should take the
November decision as a non-event or the UNSC should convince
the EEBC to postpone its decision to give the process more
time. He suggested that the focus should also begin to shift
to the post-November period when the international community,
in conjunction with the parties, should look at post-EEBC
mechanisms. The UK Ambassador cautioned that the
international community should not give the Ethiopians the
impression that the demise of the EEBC is acceptable. Mulet
responded that if the EEBC were to disband, the UN would be
available to assist with any new process.


4. (C//NF) The A/SYG announced that he was to visit Eritrea
on November 9 and that he had already secured permission from
the Eritrean government to travel overland to the Temporary
Security Zone. He interpreted Asmara's acquiesce to his
visit as a positive sign and he felt there might be a small
window of opportunity for the UN to repair its relationship
with Eritrea. He further commented that positive language by
the Eritrean PermRep to the UN along the lines of "letting
bygones be bygones," "starting a new track," and "starting a
new relationship with the UN" reflected the possibility of a
new opening in engaging Asmara positively on the border.

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MELES: ETHIOPIA WILL NOT START WAR
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5. (C//NF) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Mulet in a
meeting on November 7 that Ethiopia would not start war with
Eritrea even if provoked. Mulet said he delivered a message
of restraint to the Ethiopian government, but he assessed
that the GOE was building a deterrent force along the
Eritrean border rather than preparing to launch an offensive.

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NO PEACE TO KEEP IN SOMALIA
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6. (C//NF) Mulet emphasized that there must be a peace to
keep in Somalia before a UN peacekeeping mission could be
deployed. He stated unless certain preconditions were met,
including improved security and political negotiations
between Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and
its opponents, it would be impossible to deploy UN
peacekeepers. He underscored that the UN had been unable to
send in a technical assessment mission because of insecurity
and he said that other than Uganda and Burundi, no country
wants to contribute troops. Mulet did respond defensively
when questioned about the UN's contingency planning for a UN
PKO to Somalia noting that the Somalia Task Force continues
to plan for options of what could be done, including
unconventional options such as basing a PKO's headquarters
off-shore to enhance security. He added that for the time
being the UN would assist the AU and he commented that a
multi-national force authorized by the UNSC, but not led by
the UN, might be a more realistic way to improve the
situation in the near term.


7. (C//NF) Ethiopian State Minister of Foreign Affairs
Tekeda Alemu told Mulet in a meeting the week of November 4
that Ethiopia would withdraw its forces from Somalia by the
end of 2007 or in early 2008 if the situation did not
improve. In Mulet's view, the Ethiopians were becoming
increasingly frustrated with the lack of political progress
in Somalia. The Ethiopians also complained to Mulet that
they were disappointed with the lack of support from the
international community for Ethiopia's role in assisting the
TFG.

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AU PREPARING TO ENGAGE ON ET-ER BORDER AND SOMALIA
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8. (C//NF) AU Chairman Konare told Mulet in a separate
meeting the week of November 4 that the AU was laying the
groundwork for an initiative to engage Prime Minister Meles
and Eritrean President Isaias on the border issue. Konare
told Mulet he was going to talk to Ghana, Nigeria, South
Africa, and Algeria to gain support for the project. Konare
preferred that the EEBC postpone its November decision to
give time for his diplomatic initiative.


9. (C//NF) Konare also planned to engage on Somalia by
holding a key stakeholders meeting in Addis Ababa on December
12-13 to mobilize the international community, according to
Mulet. The members of the International Somali Contact Group
(ICG) for Somalia would be invited, but there was division
within the AU on whether to invite Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Some AU leaders felt the two countries must be part of the
solution, but other leaders disagreed. (A subsequent
diplomatic note from the AU to ICG members gave the dates as
December 13 for the ICG meeting and December 14 for high
level meetings focusing on Somalia.)

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COMMENT
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10. (C//NF) The Ethiopian government's frustrations with
the lack of political progress in Somalia are clear, but Post
has no indication that the Ethiopian military is preparing to
withdraw from Somalia this year. Senior Ethiopian officials
for now continue to recognize the importance of the Ethiopian
military in propping up the TFG. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO