Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA3196
2007-10-30 10:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: CONCERNING POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PTER ECON ET 
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RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #3196/01 3031022
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 301022Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8369
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003196 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2027
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER ECON ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CONCERNING POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN OROMIYA


Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003196

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2027
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER ECON ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CONCERNING POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN OROMIYA


Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During an October 17-20 trip to Western
Oromiya by Ethiopia Desk Officer John Wysham, Deputy
Political-Economic Chief and Political Specialist, GoE/Oromo
People's Democratic Organization (OPDO) interlocutors said
there were no political tensions in their region and, while
acknowledging that opposition offices remain closed, said
they expect opposition parties to participate in upcoming
local elections. Separately, opposition members from the
Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) and Oromo
National Congress (ONC) said the GoE/OPDO is, through
frequent beatings, jailings and other coercive tactics,
harassing and intimidating opposition members and
sympathizers in Western Oromiya. OFDM and ONC officials said
that if the GoE/OPDO's current tactics continue, they do not
know how, or if, they will participate in the local
elections. While Post will certainly urge all parties to
participate actively in the elections, it will be difficult
to convince the opposition to do so if the impediments
imposed by the government and ruling party cadres persist or
increase. Ambassador Yamamoto will meet soon with other
donor Ambassadors to discuss a common approach to the
Ethiopian government to exert greater accountability over
local officials who might be impeding democratic processes.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) From October 17-20, Ethiopia Desk Officer John
Wysham, Deputy Political-Economic Chief and Political
Specialist (collectively, EmbOffs) traveled in Western
Oromiya to assess political conditions in advance of the
upcoming local elections. EmbOffs met with GoE/ OPDO zone
administrators and party officials in Gimbi (West Wellega
Zone) and Dembi Dolo (Kellem-Wellega Zone),as well as
proxies for the zone administrators in Nekemt (East Wellega
Zone) and Ambo (West Shoa Zone). In Gimbi, EmbOffs met
opposition OFDM party officials and OFDM regional parliament
MPs. In Dembi Dolo, Presbyterian church officials provided

insight into the challenges facing their zone. In Ambo and
Nekemt, EmbOffs spoke with opposition Oromo National Congress
(ONC) party officials and ONC regional MPs.

OPDO: We Are All For Democracy
--------------


3. (C) In Gimbi, Dembi Dolo, Nekemt and Ambo, GoE/OPDO zone
administrators, OPDO party officials and their proxies
generally said that their zones had no political tensions,
but confirmed to EmbOffs that no opposition offices are
currently open. OPDO officials largely attributed the
absence of opposition offices to the fact that the campaign
season for local elections has not begun, or explained that
the opposition simply had not reopened offices that were
closed in the wake of violence associated with the 2005
parliamentary elections. In Gimbi and Dembi Dolo, GoE/OPDO
officials said they expect the National Electoral Board (NEB)
will soon finalize the schedule for local elections, paving
the way for a peaceful campaign, in which opposition parties
will participate. ODPO officials expect a "nice turnout" of
voters. West Wollega Zone administrator Tekle Deressa
explained that OPDO is "all for democracy" and opposition
parties will encounter "no problems" campaigning provided
they follow proper rules and regulations and produce a letter
from the NEB that shows they are legitimate parties and
permitted to campaign in the zone. Tekle demurred when
queried whether OPDO, whose offices are open currently
throughout the zone, itself possesses such a letter. By way
of explaining the dearth of opposition political activity at
present, Tekle added that the West Wollega Zone constituents
are "totally focused" on socio-economic development projects
and the impending harvest. Both Tekle and Tamirat Kibebew,
Kellem-Wellega Zone administrator, insisted that there are no
political prisoners in their respective zones. In Ambo and
Nekemt, proxies for the zone administrators did not appear to
have the authority to engage EmbOffs substantively and
limited the meetings to courtesy calls.

Opposition: Democracy In Name Only
--------------


4. (C) In contrast, OFDM and ONC opposition members in
Western Oromiya uniformly said that the GoE/OPDO, rather than
create democratic space, makes every effort to intimidate and
stifle political opposition and erode support for opposition
parties. Both OFDM and ONC members told EmbOffs that
GoE/OPDO authorities subscribe to "democracy in name only."
In Dembi Dolo, an OFDM opposition interlocutor regretted by
phone that he could not meet with EmbOffs for fear of
government retaliation. Interlocutors affiliated with the
Presbyterian church said Dembi Dolo is under de facto
"one-party rule." In Gimbi, two of three OFDM opposition

ADDIS ABAB 00003196 002 OF 003


members were detained by police the day they were scheduled
to meet EmbOffs (both were released without charges by
nightfall, and one managed to meet with EmbOffs afterward,
describing his detention as police harassment). In Nekemt
and Ambo, ONC opposition members said that their contacts
with EmbOffs were being closely monitored and they feared
retaliation at some point.


5. (C) Western Oromiya opposition allegations against the
GoE/OPDO include: (i) the routine detention or jailing of
opposition members and sympathizers without charges, for
periods that range between a day and several months; (ii) the
surveillance and beatings of the opposition by GoE/OPDO
authorities or OPDO cadres; (iii) the use of electric prods
against jailed or detained opposition members by GoE/OPDO
authorities; (iv) the ransacking of opposition offices by
OPDO cadres, with all materials confiscated; (v) pressure
applied to landlords by OPDO cadres to prevent the reopening
of shuttered opposition offices; and (vi) the use by OPDO of
crude, coercive tactics -- such as denying educational
opportunities to students that do not overtly pledge their
support for OPDO -- to bolster OPDO support at the expense of
the opposition. In Nekemt, ONC officials said that in some
cases GoE security services and/or OPDO
cadres have killed opposition members or sympathizers. The
Nekemt ONC officials cited a February 2007 incident in
Horo-Guduru where, they said, a family of fifteen disappeared
after being stripped and beaten by state security. The same
ONC officials allege that state security services frequently
bind the testicles of young Oromos who refuse to pledge
allegiance to OPDO in order, supposedly, to prevent them from
having children. On August 8, 2007, ONC Nekemt interlocutors
alleged, an ONC
member named Geremew Teresa was jailed by state security and
beaten so severely that he died from his injuries a day
later. In Ambo, three of four ONC interlocutors told EmbOffs
that they had been detained without charges, some multiple
times, for varying periods over the past two years for
alleged incidents not/not connected with the 2005
parliamentary elections. "The jail is our home," one said.

Uncertainty About Participation in Local Elections
-------------- --------------


6. (C) As a result of alleged GoE/OPDO harassment and
intimidation, Western Oromiya opposition interlocutors said
that they do not know if, or how, they will be able to
participate in upcoming local elections. In Gimbi, an OFDM
member told EmbOffs "We are afraid. We can be arrested or
killed if we talk to our constituents. The government is not
ready to give any power to the opposition." The OFDM member
noted confidently, however, that OFDM still enjoys widespread
support and concluded "We will win if we have even a month to
prepare." Another OFDM interlocutor said that the OPDO is
spreading cash in villages to win support, but averred "the
people know to who to vote for." In Ambo, ONC members told
EmbOffs "The situation is deteriorating very fast. We have
no freedom to associate, organize or express ourselves. We
have no access to the press. Conditions have nose-dived
since the 2005 parliamentary elections. Basically, the
ruling party does not want to see an opposition." In Ambo,
ONC members say ONC will only participate in local elections
if: (i) "people's rights are respected"; (ii) ONC is given
access to the media; (iii) ONC is permitted to assemble
peacefully; (iv) the NEB is neutral; and (v) ONC offices are
permitted to reopen. At present, ONC interlocutors said,
none of these conditions have been met.

Christian-Muslim Tensions
--------------


7. (C) In Dembi Dolo, Presbyterian church officials expressed
concern that the GoE/OPDO obsesses about tamping down Oromo
opposition political activities but ignores a growing threat
of Islamic extremism. The church officials said that five
years ago, in response to a drought, the GoE resettled
approximately 100,000 predominantly Muslim Oromos from
Eastern Oromiya into predominantly Christian Western Oromiya.
Church officials said that well-funded Imams at certain
mosques have begun espousing extremist views, even calling
for Shari'a law and distributing flyers that say Oromos
should not be Christian, adding that in October, 2006, Muslim
extremists burned several churches, raped two Christian girls
and mutilated a Christian evangelist. The GoE/OPDO responded
simply with several arrests and platitudes about the need for
religious tolerance, the church officials said, lamenting
that the GoE/OPDO is willing to tolerate a degree of
extremism in order to divide Oromos. Opposition
interlocutors in Nekemt and Ambo said that their areas did
not have religious tensions but were quick to say the
government would not be above exploiting religious

ADDIS ABAB 00003196 003 OF 003


differences for its own purposes.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) With local elections likely to occur in early March
2008, the on-going harassment and impediments to opposition
party activity risks leading major parties to boycott the
election. While Post will certainly urge all parties to
participate actively in the elections, it will be difficult
to convince the opposition to do so if the impediments
imposed by the government and ruling party cadres persist or
increase. Ambassador Yamamoto will meet soon with other
donor Ambassadors to discuss a common approach to the
Ethiopian government to exert greater accountability over
local officials who are impeding democratic processes. While
a holistic assessment of the coming local elections will be
difficult in light of the Ethiopian government's decision not
to permit international observers and the new National
Electoral Board's slow progress in presenting procedures and
requirements for voter education or local observation
activities, Post has begun a series of trips to the various
regions to assess the current playing field and is working
with other donors to get GoE buy-in for, and to implement, an
"electoral playing field" assessment to serve as a metric for
progress as the campaign period sets in and local elections
approach. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO