Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA3153
2007-10-25 04:58:00
SECRET
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA ON SOMALIA: GEDI SHOULD GO AND TFG SHOULD

Tags:  PREL PGOV SO ET 
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DE RUEHDS #3153/01 2980458
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O 250458Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8308
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003153 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SO ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA ON SOMALIA: GEDI SHOULD GO AND TFG SHOULD
FOCUS ON GOVERNING


Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales. Reasons 1.4 (
B) and (D)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003153

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SO ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA ON SOMALIA: GEDI SHOULD GO AND TFG SHOULD
FOCUS ON GOVERNING


Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales. Reasons 1.4 (
B) and (D)


1. (S) Summary. In an October 18 meeting State Minister for
Foreign Affairs Tekeda Alemu
told Charge that Ethiopia was delivering a very frank and
tough message to visiting Somali
Prime Minister Gedi, but due to Gedi's support against
terrorism could not overtly press
him to stand down. While the Ethiopian Government (GoE)
recognizes that Gedi should leave,
if he chooses not to wins a vote of confidence from the
Somali transitional parliament,
Ethiopia and the international community must accept it.
Regardless of the leadership,
Tekeda stressed that the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) must move beyond personal
politics and get on with governing and Ethiopia is prepared
to become substantively engaged
in pressing for forward movement in that area. End Summary.

Delicate Issue, but GoE Prefers if Gedi Leaves
-------------- -


2. (S) Prime Minister Meles and Dr. Tekeda met with Gedi for
over three hours during the
evening of October 17 and Foreign Minister Seyoum was
actively meeting with Gedi while
Charge met with Tekeda. Tekeda noted that in light of Gedi's
support for counter-terrorist
and counter-extremist activities, it is difficult for the GoE
to urge Gedi to resign.
Since the GoE recognizes that the TFG cannot go on with both
Yusuf and Gedi, Seyoum was
being &brutally frank8 expressing the GoE's concerns to
Gedi. Tekeda noted that the GoE
would prefer if Gedi resigned and made a magnanimous
statement, but barring that, the GoE
would prefer if the TFG Parliament voted Gedi out of office.
He argued that it is not
clear if Gedi is ready to leave, but believes that the GoE
would know in the coming days
whether Gedi is willing to take the gentleman's way out.
Tekeda claimed that over the
course of the October 17 discussions it was clear that &Gedi
was climbing down.8 If he
does not, and Parliament votes to keep him on, Tekeda
stressed that Ethiopia would have to
"swallow a bitter pill8 and respect that decision, but
engage the TFG to substantively
alter the way they have been operating. Tekeda noted that

GoE information suggests that
Gedi does not have sufficient votes to survive a vote of
confidence.

Where Should Gedi Go?
--------------


3. (S) Tekeda argued that the GoE would be "happy" to have
Gedi stay in Addis, but would also have no problem if he were
to go to the U.S. or elsewhere. He was clear that it would
be best if Gedi did not/not stay in Somalia. Ethiopia's
concern is that Gedi be treated well, lest his ill-treatment
deter other problematic leaders in the future from standing
down. Tekeda argued that if Gedi were planning to run in the
2009 elections, it would not make sense for him to be outside
of the region. (Tekeda noted that Gedi would have poor
chances of winning election in 2009.) Tekeda agreed that
however, or wherever, Gedi goes, it is critical that he do so
magnanimously and not undermine the TFG or support the Asmara
group or others. Tekeda does not believe that Gedi would be
antagonistic, but stressed that Gedi loves money and the
opposition groups could come up with enough to attract him if
there is no adequate alternative. While the GoE is adamant
that Somali President Yusuf would never turn to support the
&Islamist8 opposition, it is less confident about Gedi.

Gedi's Replacement
--------------


4. (S) The GoE has no individuals in mind for a replacement
for Gedi, but stressed that whomever is ultimately selected
must be a Hawiye (preferably an Abgal),must be completely
independent of Yusuf, and must have credibility with the

ADDIS ABAB 00003153 002 OF 002


Hawiye community. He said that the USG "has a funny idea"
about a possible candidate (presumably a reference to Ali
Mahdi),but that "won't work." Tekeda did not give further
details about why, but he did stress that the individual is a
friend of the GoE. The new Prime Minister must have the
necessary capacity and integrity, and be ready to embrace
other clans.

Phase Two Needed
--------------


5. (S) While dealing with the Yusuf-Gedi split and tensions
is key and &Phase One,8 Tekeda stressed the need for close
and intense discussions on how to alter how the TFG has been
operating ) "Phase Two." He cited the management and
operations of the Office of the President and Office of the
Prime Minister as well as diversion of money to support
political backing rather than to govern. He noted that the
TFG had had 16,000 troops, but now has only 7,000 troops
because Yusuf is giving money to MPs for their support
instead of paying the soldiers. He noted that Ethiopia
cannot want success in Somalia more than the Somalis
themselves, asking why Ethiopian troops should die if the
people directly concerned are not willing to discharge their
responsibilities and the international community is not
adequately and substantively engaged. Tekeda argued that: 1)
we must do whatever possible for the TFIs to function and to
strengthen them, 2) Yusuf must &shape up,8 3) those who are
around Yusuf who are not being helpful must leave, 4) we must
build institutions in Somalia, and 5) the TFG must share some
of the responsibility. Tekeda suggested that senior GoE
officials will be consulting soon among themselves, and with
Yusuf, to establish a clear road map for Somalia. While the
GoE has maintained a &laid back8 approach with the TFG
until now, it must have a much more active say in how Somali
political developments are handled from now forward. Tekeda
stressed that Ethiopia and the US must work closely together
on Phase Two.

YAMAMOTO