Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA3101
2007-10-23 05:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:
ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS NOT READY TO RULE
how-toVZCZCXRO6580 PP RUEHROV DE RUEHDS #3101/01 2960559 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 230559Z OCT 07 FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8233 INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003101
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SU
SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS NOT READY TO RULE
REF: ADDIS ABABA 03016
Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales for Reason 1.4
(b)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003101
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SU
SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS NOT READY TO RULE
REF: ADDIS ABABA 03016
Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales for Reason 1.4
(b)
1. (C) SUMMARY. On October 18 PolOff met with Chairman of
the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) Bloc-1 Menghesteab
Asmerom to discuss the state of the Eritrean political
opposition. Menghesteab is also a member of the Eritrean
Liberation Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC) and serves as
its head of information and chief representative in Ethiopia.
He explained that the Eritrean opposition was divided by
differences over the role of religion and ethnic identity in
a future Eritrean government. He stressed his group was
trying to reconcile the two EDA blocs and that the bloc
leaderships would be meeting in late October to discuss their
differences. He said Bloc-1 military forces were used
primarily to spread propaganda inside Eritrea rather than
fight and that his group received only limited support from
the Ethiopian government. Menghesteab admitted that the
Eritrean opposition was unprepared to assume power in Eritrea
and asserted that if Isaias were to fall now, Eritrea would
descend into chaos because no one would be able to maintain
control. Lastly, he did not think Eritrean President Isaias
would initiate war with Ethiopia because Isaias knew he could
not win and Menghesteab did not believe the Eritrean army
would support the war. END SUMMARY.
-------------- --------------
EDA DIVIDED BY LEADERSHIP, RELIGION, AND ETHNIC IDENTITY
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Menghesteab began by explaining that the Eritrean
opposition groups were primarily divided by long-standing
differences over the role of religion and ethnic identity in
a future Eritrean government, but that the two blocs were
officially formed during the February 2007 EDA congress when
the groups could not agree on who to elect as EDA chairman.
He said Bloc-1 was a grouping of the three largest secular
groups including his own Eritrean Liberation
Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC),the Eritrean National
Salvation Front (ENSF),and the Eritrean Democratic Party
(EDP). He asserted Bloc-1 was the most inclusive and enjoyed
the most support from the Eritrean diaspora and from within
Eritrea. Menghesteab emphasized there were no real political
divisions between the Bloc-1 groups and he hoped the three
groups would join together as a single party in the future.
3. (C) Bloc-2 was a grouping of seven smaller parties
including several Islamic and ethnically based factions. EDA
Bloc-2 was composed of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF),
the Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Eritrean Kunama
(DMLEK),the Democratic Organization of the Red Sea Afar
(DORSA),Eritrean Federal Democratic Movement (EFDM),
Eritrean Islamic Party for Justice and Development (EIJCDP),
Eritrean People's Congress (EPC),and the Eritrean People's
Democratic Front (EPDF).
--------------
EDA BLOCS TAKING FIRST STEPS TO RECONCILE
--------------
4. (C) Menghesteab stressed his group's goal was to see the
EDA reformed as a united umbrella organization for all
Eritrean opposition parties. The goal of the EDA was to
unite all Eritrean opposition for the purpose of replacing
President Isaias. Once Isaias was gone, each of the EDA
parties would then compete with each other in free and fair
elections in a new government. He added that in early
October the leadership of each bloc exchanged notes agreeing
to meet in late October to discuss possible reconciliation.
He noted that as of yet the blocs had no specific plans to
hold a new opposition congress, but he said the issue would
be a topic of discussion for the upcoming leadership talks in
Addis Ababa.
-------------- --------------
BLOC-1 MILITARY FORCES USED FOR PROPAGANDA, NOT FIGHTING
-------------- --------------
5. (C) The ELF-RC military forces were small, operated in
conjunction with ENSF forces (Reftel),and were used to
ADDIS ABAB 00003101 002 OF 003
spread EDA information inside Eritrea rather than to fight
the Eritrean military, according to Menghesteab. EDP, the
third Bloc-1 group, did not have military forces because they
believed in employing only peaceful means against the Isaias
government.
6. (C) Menghesteab confirmed ENSF information (Reftel) that
the EDA operated out of military camps in Ethiopia after
Khartoum closed the Eritrean opposition training camps in
Sudan. He noted the EDA could keep their offices in Sudan,
and they could hold meetings inside those offices, but they
could not conduct any other outside activities like holding
public meetings or rallies. He added Sudan was becoming more
risky for the Eritrean opposition because the Eritrean
government had more freedom to conduct intelligence
operations against them in the country.
--------------
ETHIOPIA PROVIDES ONLY LIMITED SUPPORT
--------------
7. (C) Menghesteab asserted his bloc did not receive
monetary support from the Ethiopian government, but they do
meet with government officials who allow the opposition to
operate politically and militarily within Ethiopia. He said
the Sanaa Group--Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen--financially
supported a radio station in Ethiopia that the EDA used to
broadcast information into Eritrea. He also commented that
the Ethiopian government favors the ethnically based parties
in Bloc-2 because those parties' platforms more closely
resembled Ethiopia's ethnic federalism.
--------------
ELF-RC TO BECOME A NEW PARTY
--------------
8. (C) The ELF-RC, a splinter group from the original ELF,
was planning to hold its own congress in 2008 to convert from
a council to a new political party. Menghesteab said any
Eritrean would be able to attend the congress and participate
in the new party's formation. The name of the new party
would be determined during the conference.
--------------
ERITREAN OPPOSITION NOT READY TO RULE
--------------
9. (C) Menghesteab admitted that the Eritrean opposition
was not yet capable of governing Eritrea in a post-Isaias
environment. He said if Isaias were to be overthrown now,
Eritrea would fall into chaos because the army would
factionalize and different groups in the country would fight
each other for power. For example, the Islamic groups would
insist on shari'a while the Kunama and Afar groups would
insist on political autonomy including the possibility of
secession. He emphasized that no person in the current
government would be able to maintain control and that foreign
troops would be needed to restore order.
--------------
ISAIAS WILL NOT START WAR WITH ETHIOPIA
--------------
10. (C) When queried whether Eritrea would start a war with
Ethiopia, Menghesteab responded that Isaias knows he cannot
defeat Ethiopia and would not initiate conflict. He further
asserted that the rank and file of the Eritrean army would
not fight to defend a government they did not support. He
said most Eritrean soldiers are in uniform against their will
and have been forced to serve for too long. Nevertheless,
Menghesteab stressed that no Eritrean would ever submit to a
lengthy Ethiopian occupation of Eritrea, Eritrean nationalism
was too strong.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
11. (C) Post will continue to monitor the Eritrean
opposition's progress towards reconciliation, however, it is
clear that the EDA, long beset by internal divisions, is not
close to being capable of fielding the type of opposition
ADDIS ABAB 00003101 003 OF 003
that could remove Isaias or assume power in a post-Isaias
power vacuum. Menghesteab may be downplaying the level of
support his group receives from the Ethiopian government, but
the group appears to have limited resources and his comments
suggest their primary source of support is the Eritrean
diaspora. Menghisteab was a member of the original ELF
formed in the 1960s, but was forced to flee Ethiopia in 1981
when the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front and the Eritrean
People's Liberation Front joined forces to expel the ELF.
END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SU
SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS NOT READY TO RULE
REF: ADDIS ABABA 03016
Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales for Reason 1.4
(b)
1. (C) SUMMARY. On October 18 PolOff met with Chairman of
the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) Bloc-1 Menghesteab
Asmerom to discuss the state of the Eritrean political
opposition. Menghesteab is also a member of the Eritrean
Liberation Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC) and serves as
its head of information and chief representative in Ethiopia.
He explained that the Eritrean opposition was divided by
differences over the role of religion and ethnic identity in
a future Eritrean government. He stressed his group was
trying to reconcile the two EDA blocs and that the bloc
leaderships would be meeting in late October to discuss their
differences. He said Bloc-1 military forces were used
primarily to spread propaganda inside Eritrea rather than
fight and that his group received only limited support from
the Ethiopian government. Menghesteab admitted that the
Eritrean opposition was unprepared to assume power in Eritrea
and asserted that if Isaias were to fall now, Eritrea would
descend into chaos because no one would be able to maintain
control. Lastly, he did not think Eritrean President Isaias
would initiate war with Ethiopia because Isaias knew he could
not win and Menghesteab did not believe the Eritrean army
would support the war. END SUMMARY.
-------------- --------------
EDA DIVIDED BY LEADERSHIP, RELIGION, AND ETHNIC IDENTITY
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Menghesteab began by explaining that the Eritrean
opposition groups were primarily divided by long-standing
differences over the role of religion and ethnic identity in
a future Eritrean government, but that the two blocs were
officially formed during the February 2007 EDA congress when
the groups could not agree on who to elect as EDA chairman.
He said Bloc-1 was a grouping of the three largest secular
groups including his own Eritrean Liberation
Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC),the Eritrean National
Salvation Front (ENSF),and the Eritrean Democratic Party
(EDP). He asserted Bloc-1 was the most inclusive and enjoyed
the most support from the Eritrean diaspora and from within
Eritrea. Menghesteab emphasized there were no real political
divisions between the Bloc-1 groups and he hoped the three
groups would join together as a single party in the future.
3. (C) Bloc-2 was a grouping of seven smaller parties
including several Islamic and ethnically based factions. EDA
Bloc-2 was composed of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF),
the Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Eritrean Kunama
(DMLEK),the Democratic Organization of the Red Sea Afar
(DORSA),Eritrean Federal Democratic Movement (EFDM),
Eritrean Islamic Party for Justice and Development (EIJCDP),
Eritrean People's Congress (EPC),and the Eritrean People's
Democratic Front (EPDF).
--------------
EDA BLOCS TAKING FIRST STEPS TO RECONCILE
--------------
4. (C) Menghesteab stressed his group's goal was to see the
EDA reformed as a united umbrella organization for all
Eritrean opposition parties. The goal of the EDA was to
unite all Eritrean opposition for the purpose of replacing
President Isaias. Once Isaias was gone, each of the EDA
parties would then compete with each other in free and fair
elections in a new government. He added that in early
October the leadership of each bloc exchanged notes agreeing
to meet in late October to discuss possible reconciliation.
He noted that as of yet the blocs had no specific plans to
hold a new opposition congress, but he said the issue would
be a topic of discussion for the upcoming leadership talks in
Addis Ababa.
-------------- --------------
BLOC-1 MILITARY FORCES USED FOR PROPAGANDA, NOT FIGHTING
-------------- --------------
5. (C) The ELF-RC military forces were small, operated in
conjunction with ENSF forces (Reftel),and were used to
ADDIS ABAB 00003101 002 OF 003
spread EDA information inside Eritrea rather than to fight
the Eritrean military, according to Menghesteab. EDP, the
third Bloc-1 group, did not have military forces because they
believed in employing only peaceful means against the Isaias
government.
6. (C) Menghesteab confirmed ENSF information (Reftel) that
the EDA operated out of military camps in Ethiopia after
Khartoum closed the Eritrean opposition training camps in
Sudan. He noted the EDA could keep their offices in Sudan,
and they could hold meetings inside those offices, but they
could not conduct any other outside activities like holding
public meetings or rallies. He added Sudan was becoming more
risky for the Eritrean opposition because the Eritrean
government had more freedom to conduct intelligence
operations against them in the country.
--------------
ETHIOPIA PROVIDES ONLY LIMITED SUPPORT
--------------
7. (C) Menghesteab asserted his bloc did not receive
monetary support from the Ethiopian government, but they do
meet with government officials who allow the opposition to
operate politically and militarily within Ethiopia. He said
the Sanaa Group--Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen--financially
supported a radio station in Ethiopia that the EDA used to
broadcast information into Eritrea. He also commented that
the Ethiopian government favors the ethnically based parties
in Bloc-2 because those parties' platforms more closely
resembled Ethiopia's ethnic federalism.
--------------
ELF-RC TO BECOME A NEW PARTY
--------------
8. (C) The ELF-RC, a splinter group from the original ELF,
was planning to hold its own congress in 2008 to convert from
a council to a new political party. Menghesteab said any
Eritrean would be able to attend the congress and participate
in the new party's formation. The name of the new party
would be determined during the conference.
--------------
ERITREAN OPPOSITION NOT READY TO RULE
--------------
9. (C) Menghesteab admitted that the Eritrean opposition
was not yet capable of governing Eritrea in a post-Isaias
environment. He said if Isaias were to be overthrown now,
Eritrea would fall into chaos because the army would
factionalize and different groups in the country would fight
each other for power. For example, the Islamic groups would
insist on shari'a while the Kunama and Afar groups would
insist on political autonomy including the possibility of
secession. He emphasized that no person in the current
government would be able to maintain control and that foreign
troops would be needed to restore order.
--------------
ISAIAS WILL NOT START WAR WITH ETHIOPIA
--------------
10. (C) When queried whether Eritrea would start a war with
Ethiopia, Menghesteab responded that Isaias knows he cannot
defeat Ethiopia and would not initiate conflict. He further
asserted that the rank and file of the Eritrean army would
not fight to defend a government they did not support. He
said most Eritrean soldiers are in uniform against their will
and have been forced to serve for too long. Nevertheless,
Menghesteab stressed that no Eritrean would ever submit to a
lengthy Ethiopian occupation of Eritrea, Eritrean nationalism
was too strong.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
11. (C) Post will continue to monitor the Eritrean
opposition's progress towards reconciliation, however, it is
clear that the EDA, long beset by internal divisions, is not
close to being capable of fielding the type of opposition
ADDIS ABAB 00003101 003 OF 003
that could remove Isaias or assume power in a post-Isaias
power vacuum. Menghesteab may be downplaying the level of
support his group receives from the Ethiopian government, but
the group appears to have limited resources and his comments
suggest their primary source of support is the Eritrean
diaspora. Menghisteab was a member of the original ELF
formed in the 1960s, but was forced to flee Ethiopia in 1981
when the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front and the Eritrean
People's Liberation Front joined forces to expel the ELF.
END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO