SOMALIA: ETHIOPIAN OFFICIALS DISCUSS SOMALIA WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002978

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ETHIOPIAN OFFICIALS DISCUSS SOMALIA WITH
AMBASSADOR YATES


Classified By: Political Officer Ted Harkema for Reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On September 25 US Special Envoy for
Somalia Ambassador John Yates, Ambassador Yamamoto, and
Poloffs met with State Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Tekeda
Alemu and separately, with National Security Advisor Abay
Tsehaye. On September 26 Ambassador Yates and Poloffs met

SIPDIS
with Acting Chief of Staff to the Foreign Minister Abdeta
Dribssa to discuss Ethiopia's views on Somalia. Tekeda
insisted that Ethiopia would not be drawn into a quagmire in
Somalia and stated the Ethiopian military would withdraw
rather than allow that to happen. Tekeda also stated his
government had smoothed relations between President Yusuf and
Prime Minister Ghedi for now and was attempting to reform the
Transitional Federal Government's (TFG) security forces.
Abay echoed Tekeda's comments, asked for financial support
for TFG security reform, and asked for support for the
peacekeeping process in general. Abdeta commented that,
although there were problems between Yusuf and Ghedi,
Ethiopia would ensure the issues between the two TFG leaders
did not devolve into open conflict. END SUMMARY.

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TEKEDA: SOMALIA MAKES YOU HUMBLE, BUT NO QUAGMIRE FOR ETHIOPIA
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2. (C) Tekeda told Amb. Yates that Somalia "makes one
humble." He declared Ethiopia would not be drawn into a
quagmire in Somalia, and underscored, "you can rule it out
completely." Tekeda said the Ethiopian military would
withdraw to its borders to defend Ethiopia should the Somali
political process collapse. On the volatile situation in
Lower Juba, both Tekeda and Abdeta maintained that Ethiopia
had no intention of intervening militarily on the side of TFG
forces. They said Ethiopia has consistently urged the TFG to
address the serious political issues through dialogue rather
than force.


3. (C) On the issue of Yusuf-Ghedi relations, Tekeda stated
that "his people" were talking to both leaders and the
immediate crisis had passed, although much remained to be
seen in the coming days and weeks. Tekeda assessed the TFG
leadership was in disarray and the situation might make it
possible for TFG opponents to gain traction. He said his
government was considering calling both men to Addis Ababa
upon Foreign Minister Seyoum's return from New York to
discuss their issues. The near term problem was the lack of
a unified security structure for the TFG, according to
Tekeda. He revealed that Ethiopia, in the previous several
days, had told Yusuf and Ghedi they would no longer be
permitted to maintain separate militia forces. He noted that
how the TFG would reform their security forces was up to the
Ethiopian military commanders on the ground in Mogadishu.

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ABAY TSEHAYE: TFG SECURITY FORCES NEED ASSISTANCE
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4. (C) National Security Advisor Abay Tsehaye emphasized
that TFG security forces, including both the army and police,
needed to be built up to improve their capability and create
more favorable conditions for the deployment of peacekeepers.
Abay asked that the United States help get the donors on
board with supporting peacekeeping efforts and help financing
the building of the TFG forces to prevent external actors
from spoiling the political process. When queried why more
African troop contributors had not yet deployed to Somalia,
Abay responded at first it was because of security, but now
it is because of financial reasons, in particular the lack of
sufficient resources provided by the international partners
of the AU.

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ABDETA DRIBSSA: YUSUF AND GHEDI, GLASS BROKEN OR HALF-FULL?
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5. (C) Abdeta, amplifying Tekeda's comments from the day
before, cautioned that although there were problems between
Yusuf and Ghedi, the current situation was more favorable
than a "broken glass" situation where the TFG dissolved into
chaos. He opined that the problems between Yusuf and Ghedi

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would continue, but insisted that there would be no open
violence between the two camps while Ethiopia remained in
Somalia. Abdeta also stated Yusuf would not easily be able
to replace Ghedi until the parliament had endorsed the
recommendations of the National Reconciliation Congress,
which would allow the Prime Ministership to be filled by a
non-MP. Abdeta commented that Ethiopia's priority was to
patch the relationship between Yusuf and Ghedi and reform the
TFG security forces to a unified command.


6. (C) COMMENT. None of the Ethiopian officials displayed
any particular loyalty to Yusuf or Ghedi, acknowledging both
leaders were guilty of failings, but the officials appeared
resigned that to keep the TFG process moving forward both
should continue in office until elections can be held in

2009. The officials viewed Ghedi as expendable, but were
concerned that his departure could result in the unraveling
of the TFG. Tekeda's comment that Ethiopia will withdraw
from Somalia before becoming embroiled in a quagmire is
probably intended in part to motivate the international
community into increasing support for the TFG and the
peacekeeping process. While the Ethiopian army reportedly
wants to withdraw from Somalia at the earliest opportunity,
the senior political leadership of Ethiopia appears to
recognize that the military for now must stay to keep the TFG
afloat. Tekeda's comments on Ethiopia directing the TFG's
security sector reform were the most explicit confirmation to
date of what everyone has assumed about who is calling the
shots on the TFG's military strategy. END COMMENT.


7. (U) Ambassador Yates cleared this cable.
YAMAMOTO