ETHIOPIA: UNMEE MILITARY OBSERVER REPORTS ETHIOPIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002968

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: UNMEE MILITARY OBSERVER REPORTS ETHIOPIA
INCREASING MILITARY READINESS

Classified By: Political Officer Ted Harkema for Reasons 1.4 (B)(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On September 27 Poloff met with an Amcit
United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)
military observer (Milob) to discuss the military situation
along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border and report on Ethiopian
National Defense Force (ENDF) activity. According to the
milob, Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General
Azouz Ennifar does not believe Ethiopia will initiate war
because of the financial costs, but UNMEE military staff
disagree and assess that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles would
not allow the international community or the cost to prevent
him from taking action he felt was in Ethiopia's national
interest. The Milob said UNMEE further assessed the
Ethiopian military is ready for any contingency and reports
the military has increased readiness since the September 6-7
Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC) meeting at The
Hague. UNMEE is reviewing evacuation plans and procedures
after ENDF Chief of General Staff Samora recently advised
UNMEE to consider the need to move away from the border. The
Milob reports that the ENDF obstructs UNMEE military observer
patrols on a daily basis, and UNMEE has detected an increase
in firefights along the border between regular army units on
both sides including two skirmishes the week of September 16.
In addition, ENDF units have begun conducting daily live
fire exercises near the border in the last month. UNMEE
remains vigilant for signs of imminent conflict, but cautions
the Ethiopian military could move with little warning in the
event of war. END SUMMARY.

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ENDF INTENT UNCLEAR BUT READY FOR ANY CONTINGENCY
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2. (C) The Milob stated Ennifar does not believe Ethiopia
will initiate war because of the potential economic
repercussions, but UNMEE's military staff disagrees and
assesses the Ethiopian government is not concerned about the
reaction from the international community or the potential
costs. UNMEE staff do not have specific information that
Ethiopia is intending to initiate war, but they note a
discernible increase in readiness and activity across the
border since the September 6-7 EEBC meeting at The Hague.
Just prior to the EEBC meeting, the military held an
army-wide general staff meeting. UNMEE staff assess the ENDF
is ready for any contingency and note the senior ENDF
leadership along the border appears ready and willing to go
to war. The Milob emphasized that ENDF officers appear to be
losing patience with the status quo versus Eritrea. He also
reported that the military is rotating units out of Somalia
who have recent combat experience to front echelon positions
along the border and that all Ethiopian surface-to-air
missile sites near the border were now operational.

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UNMEE REVIEWING EVACUATION PLANS
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3. (C) UNMEE last week initiated a mission-wide review of
evacuation plans and procedures prompted by a conversation
the week of Sept 16 with ENDF Chief of General Staff General
Samora Yonus. During the meeting Samora advised Ennifar that
UNMEE needed to start thinking about moving away from the
border. Ennifar queried whether this was official
notification to withdraw, but Samora replied no, "but you
need to start thinking about it." Samora also claimed that
if war started, "I will not be stopped short," and, "I will
crush them."

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ENDF OBSTRUCTING UNMEE ON A DAILY BASIS
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4. (C) The Milob reported that the ENDF obstructs UNMEE
patrols on a daily basis using various tactics. In most
cases he said ENDF forces block UNMEE movement in the field
at random locations and demand the patrol leave the area. In
other cases ENDF commanders use the explanation of "troop
rotations" as cover for troop build ups in strategic areas.
UNMEE is not allowed to patrol after dark when milobs
frequently report hearing heavy vehicle movement along the

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roads and wake up to find ENDF units missing from their
previous deployment sites. ENDF commanders consistently
refuse to answer milob questions about the movement of ENDF
units or military activity in an area. In one recent
instance when UNMEE milobs arrived at an Ethiopian
surface-to-air missile site near Axum an hour ahead of
schedule, when the ENDF was operating an unmanned aerial
vehicle from the airfield, the patrol was surrounded at
gunpoint and told by the senior most ENDF officer present he
would kill them if they returned to the area again. The
Milob relayed that on the Ethiopian side of the border UNMEE
is only allowed to patrol and report on Ethiopian military
activity within the 15 kilometer adjacent area to the
Temporary Security Zone (TSZ),but most Ethiopian forces
along the border are deployed outside this narrow corridor
allowing ENDF units to move more easily without being
observed.

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SHOOTING INCIDENTS INCREASING ALONG THE BORDER
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5. (C) The Milob noted shooting incidents had been
increasing along the border in recent months, particularly
between Ethiopian and Eritrean regular army units rather than
between militias, but that both sides were deliberately
refusing to publicize the skirmishes. He reported during the
week of September 16 UNMEE detected two small firefights
resulting in at least one ENDF casualty shot in the leg.
UNMEE could not identify who initiated the skirmishes.

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ENDF CONDUCTING DAILY LIVEFIRE EXERCISES
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6. (C) The ENDF has been conducting daily livefire
exercises along the border in the last month, according to
UNMEE. In addition, the Ethiopian SU-27 fighter aircraft at
Mekele have been flying training missions on a near daily
basis. The Milob underscored that in both cases, this
activity was an increase from previous months.

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UNMEE WATCHFUL FOR INDICATORS OF IMMINENT CONFLICT
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7. (C) The Milob reported UNMEE is watching carefully for
signs of imminent conflict, but he noted the Ethiopian
military repositioned most of its heavy weapons prior to the
rainy season and would not need to conduct a major
redeployment prior to initiating offensive action. He also
noted the ENDF is capable of moving quickly, citing an
example last fall when the army loaded and redeployed an
armored division in less than a day. He further cautioned
UNMEE has been unable to locate this division, but they
believe it is now deployed somewhere between the Sitona
Triangle and Humera. In particular, UNMEE is watching the
large Ethiopian military hospital near Adi Hageray which is
now in caretaker status. Milob asserted the activation of
this hospital would be a clear sign of impending war.


8. (C) COMMENT. UNMEE, which has historically downplayed
the military situation along the border, now classifies the
TSZ and adjacent area as "volatile and tense" highlighting

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the seriousness of the military standoff between Ethiopia and
Eritrea. Although the intent of the two parties remains
unclear, the potential for miscalculation by either side
remains high. Both sides have a history of reading each
other's actions in the worst light, and tension will almost
certainly increase further as the November 27 EEBC
demarcation by coordinates date approaches. Post will
continue to impress upon Ethiopian government officials at
the highest levels that war is not an acceptable option and
restraint must be exercised to avoid conflict. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO