ETHIOPIA: CUD LEADERS EXPLORING FUTURE OF PARTY AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002813

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND DRL: S.JOSEPH
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2017
TAGS: PHUM KJUS KDEM PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CUD LEADERS EXPLORING FUTURE OF PARTY AT
HOME AND ABROAD


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Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION DEBORAH MALAC FOR REASON 1.4(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Since their pardon and release from prison in
July and August, the members of the Coalition for Unity and
Democracy (CUD) Supreme Council have begun actively working
to reestablish themselves as the recognized leadership of the
CUD. After nearly two years in prison, the former leaders of
the CUD party wasted little time after their release, almost
immediately restarting the regular meetings of the CUD
Supreme Council. Many of these meetings were held in
conjunction with the leaders of the reformed Coalition for
Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP),who had in 2005 elected to
take their seats in the federal parliament. Before taking
control of the CUDP again, however, the CUD leaders must
address the divide among the current legal party leadership.
Until then, they remain populist leaders with no political
platform from which to operate.


2. (C) After initial domestic reengagement, much of the top
leadership departed for a tour of the CUD diaspora
strongholds around the world. Many of the top leaders,
including former firebrand and party leader Hailu Shawel,
chose to visit the U.S. There they will focus on solidifying
financial links with supporters and repairing rifts that
developed in the CUD diaspora leadership while they were in
prison. The Ambassador has stressed to the departing CUD
leaders the importance of a constructive diaspora role in
Ethiopian politics and avoiding a return to the 2005
post-election conflict. Even if they discover they have the
same level of support they had in 2005, Hailu Shawel and the
other Supreme Council leaders have a long road ahead to truly
secure control of this fragmented party after spending two
years facing political trials. END SUMMARY.

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CUD LEADERS TO REESTABLISH INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
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3. (SBU) One of the CUD leaders' first strategies since being
released from prison was to organize an extensive "world
tour" by the former detainees, with the goal of reaching out
to diaspora followers and party leadership. Several members
of the Supreme Council were assigned to visit South Africa,
Kenya, Australia, Europe, Canada and the U.S. Most of the
top leadership elected to visit the U.S., including party
leader Hailu Shawel, Addis Ababa mayor-elect Berhanu Nega,
and federal parliamentarians Yacob Hailemariam, Birtukan
Mideksa, Gizachew Shiferaw, Hailu Araya and Biruk Kebede.
They applied in separate groups for reinstatement of LPR
status (Berhanu and Yacob) or B-1 visas (all others). Hailu
was the last of this group to receive his visa, which was
granted on September 7. In separate meetings with
Ambassador, Pol-Econ counselor and Poloff prior to their
departure, the CUD leaders explained that they would be
touring various CUD strongholds throughout the U.S. to speak
to followers, reestablish financial links with diaspora
supporters and work to address the divide in the diaspora
CUD. Stops are scheduled in Washington D.C., Atlanta,
Dallas, Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago and New York.


4. (SBU) Though the degree of their popular support was never
in doubt, it was clearly demonstrated by the estimated 5,000
supporters that turned out to welcome their arrival at Dulles
airport on September 9. Similarly, their domestic support
does not appear to have waned either. During their visits to
Post's consular section, they were approached and
congratulated by nearly every LES, an event they report as
typical when they appear in public.

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THE STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE NAME CUD
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5. (SBU) In addition to addressing support from domestic and
international followers, another major challenge currently
facing the CUD is internal party matters. Although the CUD
continued to function in parliament while the leadership was
in jail, albeit reconstituted under a new name (CUDP) and
with the leaders outside of jail, it is unclear whether those
detained and those that remained free agree on the future of
the party. Many of those who took their seats in parliament

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feel that they made an equally important sacrifice for the
party by continuing to engage the GoE and feel slighted by
supporters and the international community for being viewed
as less relevant than the jailed CUD. Though the CUDP
leaders have publicly stated that they plan to hand the reins
of the party back over to the released detainees, they have
privately told Emboffs that it is so far unclear what the
future structure of the party will be, noting that they have
no intention of giving up control of the party entirely.
Though several joint meetings have been held, there has been
no decision on how a reconstituted party leadership will be
formed.


6. (SBU) Even if the matter of party leadership were settled,
another fundamental challenge prohibits them from controlling
the CUDP--none of the released detainees are members of this
party. They can only be considered for membership once a
CUDP party congress is officially held and recognized by the
National Election Board (NEB). Furthermore, technically
speaking, the CUD no longer exists. As explained by the head
of party registration at the NEB, Mekonnen Wondimu, the
released detainees are officially members of their former
parties (Rainbow, All Ethiopia Unity Party, Ethiopian
Democratic League, United Ethiopian Democratic Party-Medhin)
that formed the coalition CUD solely for the 2005 elections.
However, the released detainees have publicly declared their
former parties as "dead," leaving themselves somewhat at the
mercy of the current CUDP leadership.


7. (C) Despite having applied to form a new party in early
2006, the CUDP has yet to be certified by the NEB due to
intra-party fighting between Chairman (and federal MP)
Temesgen Zewdie and Vice-Chairman (and Addis Ababa city
council member-elect) Ayele Chamisso. Though they had close
working relations at the outset of the party's formation, a
power struggle soon erupted with Ayele attempting to wrestle
control from Temesgen. Many opposition members believe that
Ayele adopted this strategy after being co-opted by the GoE.
Indeed he did take a markedly more cooperative position
toward GoE policies after diverging from the
Temesgen-controlled portion of the party. Though Ayele
continues to maintain some support, this comes mostly from
lower-level party members. All of the CUDP federal
parliamentarians side with Temesgen.


8. (SBU) To date, a CUDP party congress has not been held.
However, the leadership of the (former) CUD Supreme Council
has been working with both Temesgen and Ayele to arrange this
meeting. Once this is done, the leadership of the CUDP can
elect to name all of the CUD leaders as members, and
presumably as Executive Council members. However, if the
party congress is not held, the NEB holds the right to
dissolve the CUDP if the application for party registration
was not confirmed with a party congress. In this case, the
only option would be to form yet another party, though the
leadership has stated that this is not preferable, since the
CUD name is of critical importance.

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COMMENT: COMING MONTHS CRITICAL FOR RELEASED CUD LEADERS
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9. (C) In the past, the CUD diaspora had been split not only
by petty power struggles, but also in approaches in how to
engage the GoE in political opposition. Some groups
encourage engagement, while others encourage the leadership
to take a more "by any means necessary" stance. In meetings
with CUD leaders before their post-release tour of the U.S.,
Ambassador Yamamoto stressed the importance of engaging with
the moderate diaspora CUD and working to quell the fiery
rhetoric from the hardliners. Hailu Shawel, who had been
most subjugated by the hardliners in the pre- and post-2005
election period, is on this tour of the U.S., but his primary
concern is getting medical treatment in New York for a
variety of health issues. Though he likely remains the most
popular opposition political figure among the diaspora, it is
uncertain whether he will reengage to the degree he did
during the election period. Post encourages the Department
to meet with the CUD leaders during their trip to field their
viewpoints and to reiterate the need for constructive
opposition on the part of the CUD. A return the pre-election

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rhetoric could easily result in the CUD leaders rearrest.


10. (SBU) Once they return home, the CUD leaders will face a
difficult chore of reuniting the divided camps of the CUDP.
This will be necessary, however, if they intend to keep the
name CUDP and not have to form another new party, a task the
GoE would likely make as difficult as possible for the
released leaders. Meanwhile the CUDP leaders that had taken
their seats in parliament will struggle to maintain a degree
of respect among followers and to continue to hold a
leadership position in a potentially reunited party. While
the international community has praised them for active,
legal political engagement, the heart of CUD followers still
remains with the released leaders, who are riding a wave of
support for their sacrifice.
YAMAMOTO