Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA2778
2007-09-10 13:47:00
SECRET
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER AND PRIME

Tags:  ER ET KPKO MOPS PBTS PREL SO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #2778/01 2531347
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 101347Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7755
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 0725
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002778 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2017
TAGS: ER ET KPKO MOPS PBTS PREL SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER AND PRIME
MINISTER MELES DISCUSS OGADEN, SOMALIA, NORWAY AND ERITREA

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO.
REASON 1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002778

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2017
TAGS: ER ET KPKO MOPS PBTS PREL SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER AND PRIME
MINISTER MELES DISCUSS OGADEN, SOMALIA, NORWAY AND ERITREA

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO.
REASON 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Assistant Secretary Frazer, accompanied
by NSC Senior Advisor Pittman raised the Ogaden and her visit
to Gode in the heart of the Ogaden region, noting the
insurgency problem, food insecurity and the need for
reestablishing market mechanisms to help alleviate problems
in the region. The Prime Minister noted the insurgency
problem in the Ogaden and his efforts and continued
commitment to relief efforts. He noted the need for the
international community to support institution building and
training of TFG troops as two essential elements to ensure
the survival of the TFG and to avoid a resurgence of the
extremist Islamic Courts. Meles also noted that a middle way
between recognition and no relations must be found to deal
with Somaliland. Finally, the Prime Minister defended the
downsizing of the Norwegian Mission as a warning to stop its
unhelpful role supporting Eritrean destabilizing policies and
other political activities on behalf of insurgent groups.
END SUMMARY.

--------------
THE OGADEN REGION
--------------


2. (S/NF) Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer, accompanied by
NSC Senior Africa Advisor Bobby Pittman and Ambassador
(notetaker) met Prime Minister Meles, September 8. The
Assistant Secretary expressed her appreciation to the Prime
Minister for the release of 71 detainees arrested in the wake
of the 2005 national election, calling the release helpful
for Ethiopia's internal political dialogue and addressing
concerns in the U.S. She also thanked the Prime Minister for
facilitating her travel to Gode, in the heart of the Ogaden
region the previous day, noting that the trip allowed her to
address concerns back in Washington on the situation in the
Ogaden based on her meetings with local officials, clan

elders, NGO groups and a visit to a feeding center. She
noted that opening commercial traffic, which supplies over 80
percent of the food needs for the people in the Ogaden, is
key to addressing the food needs as well as supporting market
mechanisms which will help alleviate food insecurity in the
region. The Prime Minister discussed the insurgency problem
in the Ogaden and noted his government's efforts to address
the humanitarian needs of the population in the Somali region
of Ethiopia, and agreed that climatic problems of both
semi-desert conditions and flooding in some parts of the
Ogaden add to food insecurity.


3. (S/NF) In an earlier meeting with the Prime Minister's
national security advisor, Abey Tsehaye, the Assistant
Secretary delved into the detail of her trip to the Ogaden

SIPDIS
and the necessity to open commercial traffic, as well as to
ensure that military escorts for food deliveries not delay
distribution. Tsehaye, one of the Prime Minister's close
advisors and the key minister working on the Ogaden, noted
that Ethiopia was focused on, and will continue to focus on,
opening more corridors for humanitarian food deliveries and
commercial food trade. He and the Prime Minister noted the
problem of landmines and insurgent activities as a barrier in
providing safe passage for food deliveries, and underscored
that Ethiopia will continue to resolve the security problem
and continue its commitment to push forward on relief efforts.

--------------
SOMALIA: TWO ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS FOR SUCCESS
--------------


4. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles said AMISOM troops are
critical for Somalia not because they are a peacekeeping
force, and not because of their size, but because they are a
symbol of AU commitment to Somalia. AMISOM represents an
official recognition of the Transitional Federal Government
as the legitimate sovereign entity for Somalia. The
challenge is to expand the number of troops contributing
countries to AMISOM and to find funding to sustain
operations. AMISOM will not have the necessary troops
strength to stabilize Somalia and so ultimately only the
Somalis themselves can bring peace to Somalia. Towards this

ADDIS ABAB 00002778 002 OF 003


end, the Prime Minister said he saw two essential elements
necessary for success. First, the TFG must expand political
reconciliation, seeking out former Islamic Court officials
and clan elders. Second, the international community could
help stabilize Somalia and support the TFG by institution
building and training of TFG forces.


5. (S/NF) The Prime Minister viewed the reconciliation
congress as going half way in engaging the clans and bringing
them into the process. Prime Minister expressed his
appreciation to the Saudis for funding the congress, noting
that it was important for an Arab country to support efforts
in Somalia. The actions of Qatar providing assistance to
Eritrea, which seeks to undermine efforts in Somalia, for
instance, were unhelpful. The TFG needs to do more to engage
individuals who could help bring clans into the process. For
instance, former Islamic Court officials, some of whom see
protection of their private property as key to the
reconciliation process. Somalis are the most practical
people in the continent and private property and land
ownership are foremost on their minds over ideology.


6. (S/NF) The second essential element is revamping the TFG
to ensure that it acts like a responsible government
accountable for its actions. Lack of salary payments has
forced clans to revert to setting up roadblocks to collect
taxes, thus making the TFG more of a warlord government.
Unfortunately, many of the actions taken by the TFG are short
term focused on immediate gains rather than a long term
approach to build institutions and stability in the country.
The Prime Minister said the international community has
ignored the important objective of building institutions, key
to stability. The European Union has not been helpful and
has been resistant to helping the process. The Prime
Minister expressed his deep appreciation to the U.S. for its
support, but more needs to be done, particularly financial
support from the international community. Training of TFG
troops are also essential to allow the TFG to guarantee
security of the country on its own. Meles commented that
insurgents still operate in the lower Juba area as well as in
Mogadishu and other areas. The TFG cannot neutralize
insurgents in the south, but can contain the region until
that time they are strong enough to counter the insurgents.


7. (S/NF) Meles said Ethiopian troops cannot stay in Somalia
because it is counter productive. But the GOE must find a
balance between withdrawal of its troops and ensuring that
the TFG is strong enough to stabilize the country and
survive. But the criticism from the EU and the cost of
sustaining the deployment may force Ethiopia to withdraw
sooner than is appropriate and Meles has already advised
President Yusuf to make every effort to speed up institution
building and training of TFG troops.

-------------- -
RESURGENCE OF THE ISLAMIC COURTS - NOT EXACTLY
-------------- -


8. (S/NF) The Assistant Secretary referred to her meeting
with AU Chairman Konare who told her that the 2009 elections
could bring back the Islamic Courts because these extremists
are more popular than any other group. Meles countered by
saying that while there is a small hardcore group of
ideologues, Somalis are practical and that clan ties are more
important. The problem is not that Jihadists would win.
Rather, the government elected will be so fractured that the
progress being made now will be undercut. A jihadist group
could not control all of Somalia, but it could undermine
stability. Finding a model to help stabilize Somalia is
difficult. Afghanistan comes closest but Somalia's clan
structure makes it unique and a difficult challenge.

--------------
SOMALILAND - SEMI-RECOGNITION
--------------


9. (S/NF) Meles noted that he had cautioned TFG President
Yusuf to focus strictly on Somalia and not to be sidetracked
by taking on other issues, such as Somaliland or to support
Puntland which would enhance fissures between Somaliland and

ADDIS ABAB 00002778 003 OF 003


Puntland. Meles believed that treating Somaliland like
Moldova or Taiwan, providing it a status between full
recognition and no recognition is a good interim solution for
dealing with Somalia. "Semi-recognition" would allow the
international community to engage with Somaliland on trade
and assistance, while keeping relations between Somaliland
and the fledgling Somali state in balance.

--------------
DEALING WITH ERITREA
--------------


10. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles briefly touched on Eritrea's
destabilizing activities calling it a part of the terrorism
problem in the region. President Isaias uses terrorist
activities to blackmail countries to get attention and to get
support or recognition of its position on issues. Isaias is
not being held accountable, according to Meles. Discussion
of placing Eritrea on the list of countries sponsoring
terrorism has sparked reaction from Eritrea, but also raised
attention to its activities. Meles agreed with the
Assistant Secretary to share fully information Ethiopia has
on Eritrean activities as well as on materials, such as
weapons, captured, which could be traced through the serial
numbers on the weapons.




11. (S/NF) The Assistant Secretary raised Norway as seeking
to play a helpful role in the Somali contact group and did
not seek to undermine the venue for the EEBC discussions.
Meles said it was an accumulation of activities which forced
it to reduce Norway's diplomatic presence in Ethiopia, not
sever relations, as a warning to Norway to cease its
unhelpful activities. Meles noted that Norwegian groups were
providing indirect support for Eritrean funds to Sudan and
other areas which have proven unhelpful to peace and
stability; the Norwegian government has been involved with
the OLF beyond its coordination with the Ethiopian
government, as well as with other insurgent groups; and
support for Eritrean policy positions.



12. (S/NF) COMMENT: Prime Minister Meles was much more at
ease than we have seen of him in previous meetings. He
expressed confidence that the Ogaden insurgency problem is
being handled and his commitment to support relief efforts to
the region is helpful to our efforts to explain to Washington
the Ogaden problem and the solutions necessary to meet these
challenges. Somalia continues to trouble the Meles
government and the financial drain is forcing Ethiopia to
consider an exit strategy earlier than desired by the African
Union and the Ethiopians themselves. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO