ETHIOPIA: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER MEETS WITH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002773

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER MEETS WITH
CHOD LTG SAMORA ON THE OGADEN, SOMALIA, AND ERITREA

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reason: 1.4 (D).


1. (S//NF) SUMMARY. LTG Samora Yenus, Ethiopian military
Chief of Staff, on September 6 discussed his views on the
Ogaden, Somalia, and Eritrea with visiting Assistant
Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, the Ambassador, DATT, and

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POLOFF. Samora explained that the situation in the Ogaden
was well in hand and that military operations would be
completed in a few months. In addition, he suggested the
real problem was a media conspiracy to undermine Ethiopia.
On Somalia, Samora made it clear Ethiopia would like to
withdraw, but circumstances required they remain for the time
being. Samora also stressed Ethiopia was prepared to fight a
short war with Eritrea if provoked, but his preference would
be to wait Eritrea out. END SUMMARY.

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NOTHING TO SEE IN THE OGADEN, IT'S A MEDIA CONSPIRACY
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2. (S//NF) LTG Samora explained to Assistant Secretary of
State Jendayi Frazer and the Ambassador on September 6 the
ENDF had nearly completed its mission in the Somali region
against Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) rebels, but
the real problem was a media conspiracy to overthrow the
Ethiopian government. Samora explained the media, "was paid
to lie," and since the enemies of Ethiopia had failed to
bring down the government in 2005 after the elections, the
media and others were using issues like the Ogaden to
continue undermining the government. He asserted the
soldiers of the ENDF were friends of the Ethiopian people and
there had been no house burning or massacres against its own
people. He said if the army used such tactics we could have
used them in Somalia, but we did not and the people of the
Ogaden support us. Samora further asserted the army would
not follow an order to kill civilians because it is an army
of national composition trained to target combatants, not
civilians.


3. (S//NF) Samora explained the army's strategy in the
Ogaden was one of search and attack to go after small groups
of rebels. He asserted the army was not using artillery or
tanks, and helicopters were only being used to ferry wounded
and to deploy troops. Samora said military operations
against the ONLF would be complete in two to three months and
underscored the situation in the region was OK. Samora
claimed most of the fighting was being done by militias and
regional police.


4. (S//NF) The general added the ONLF was supported by rich
diaspora financiers, some NGOs, diverted food aid, and
Eritrea, and therefore, the government's actions to seQ off
the military security zones were intended to deny the ONLF
assistance. He then asserted, however, that all food
deliveries and commercial traffic had restarted. Assistant
Secretary Frazer urged Samora that open access to the region

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would help alleviate the problems. Samora replied everyone
has access and, "this is not another Darfur," but complained
that Ethiopia is the only government that calls the ONLF
terrorists and Eritrean support to the rebels continues to be
a problem. Samora alleged arms from Eritrea are coming
through Galkayo, but "we cannot prove it by showing the
weapons because Eritrea purchases arms from all over the
world."

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WE WANT TO LEAVE SOMALIA
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5. (S//NF) Samora said due to financial expenses, Ethiopia
wishes to leave Somalia, but asserted the African Union does
not want us to depart and we cannot leave the peacekeeping
forces alone in Somalia. Samora said other African countries
were refusing to provide troops because of the lack of
financial support. Samora claimed the situation in Somalia
had improved and the remaining violence is, "not a big deal."
He noted in any large city you can occasionally hear
shooting. He also noted Ethiopia was training two brigades of
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces, one of
approximately 600 troops inside Ethiopia and another inside
Somalia. He claimed the TFG forces were improving and was

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expecting Burundi to deploy additional forces soon.

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WE ARE READY FOR WAR WITH ERITREA IF PROVOKED
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6. (S//NF) Turning to the border with Eritrea, Samora said
Eritrea is doing its maximum to destabilize Ethiopia and had
been doing so for the last seven years. He claimed Eritrea
was training Tigrayans, Oromos, Somalis, Amharas, and
"everyone" to fight Ethiopia. He asserted the Eritrean
Defense Force could not afford a long war and was losing its
strength day by day, but Eritrea could, in desperation, do
something to provoke Ethiopia. He said that although the
Eritrean commanders and soldiers were demoralized, they would
follow orders to fight. However, Samora admitted Ethiopia
could not support a lengthy war either. Samora noted the
Temporary Security Zone no longer exists because of the
Eritrean troop movements into the zone and the UN observers
were no longer observers rather they were watched by Eritrea.


7. (S//NF) When pressed concerning Ethiopia's strategy for
Eritrea, Samora replied it would be easy to attack them, but
it would be costly. He said war is expensive and against
Ethiopia's interests. He queried, "if Eritrea is killing
itself why attack?" Nevertheless, Samora underscored that if
attacked Ethiopia would respond and would defeat Eritrea in a
short period of time. Samora further stressed that Ethiopia
had, for planning purposes, been preparing for a short war.


8. (S//NF) COMMENT. Although Ethiopia faces a genuine
insurgent threat from the ONLF, serious humanitarian concerns
remain. Assistant Secretary Frazer made it clear that
commercial food trade and humanitarian food deliveries were
critical to meet the needs of the Ogaden region. There still
remains a lack of information on the Ogaden and additional
investigation is needed to determine the true scope of the
problem and prove or disprove allegations raised in the
press, by NGO groups, and the GoE. It is unclear how long
the counter insurgency operation will last, but the Embassy
will continue to press for opening more corridors for
humanitarian food relief and also food trade. Samora refused
to elaborate on Ethiopia's plans to aggressively counter
Eritrean rebel support, but his statement that Ethiopia is
ready to strike if attacked by Eritrea should be taken as an
indication that the border situation is volatile. END COMMENT.


9. (U) A/S Frazer cleared this cable.
YAMAMOTO