MELES DISCUSSES REGIONAL EVENTS WITH CJTF-HOA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002710

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LODNON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR RADM HART AND POLAD
USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS SO ET SU ER
SUBJECT: MELES DISCUSSES REGIONAL EVENTS WITH CJTF-HOA

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles thanked Admiral Hart August 30
for Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa's (CJTF-HOA)
civil affairs projects, logistical support, and training for
the Ethiopian military. The Prime Minister lamented that
Ethiopia bears the primary burden in Somalia for providing
force protection for the Transnational Federal Government
(TFG) as well as training the officials and military with
little financial assistance or support from the international
community. He expressed doubt that there would be further
additions to AMISOM forces for Somalia. Meles reviewed
Ethiopia's concerns in the region, highlighting Somalia as
its major challenge. The Prime Minster felt that the TFG
would be able to survive allowing Ethiopian troops to
withdraw soon. After the next training session by the
Ethiopian military, TFG forces will be able to handle
extremists in most parts of Somalia, except for the lower
Juba area from Kismayo south. If these elements can be
contained the TFG will continue to survive.


2. (S/NF) The Prime Minister reviewed threats posed by the
ONLF (Ogadeni National Liberation Front) and other insurgents
to Ethiopia's domestic stability, Eritrea's destabilizing
activities, and Sudan peace efforts, noting that Ethiopia is
committed to providing peace keeping troops for Sudan. Meles
did not mention Eritrea at any great length. He concluded by
seeking CJTF-HOA's continued focus on enhancing Ethiopia's
command and staff college and logistical support. End Summary

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CJTF-HOA IS KEY TO REGIONAL INTERACTION
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3. (S/NF) The Prime Minister met August 30 with CJTF-HOA
Commander Admiral Hart, Ambassador, DATT, CJTF Liaison
Officer and the Admiral's personal assistant to review U.S.
military programs for the region. Admiral Hart briefed the
Prime Minister, MFA Director General for North America and
the PM's chief of staff on CJTF-HOA's civil affairs projects
and training programs in Ethiopia and the region, and
commitment to support Ethiopia's request for spare parts for
C-130 aircraft and to continue civil affairs projects. The
Prime Minister expressed appreciation for CJTF-HOA's efforts
and underscored support from CENTCOM in promotion of
U.S.-established Command and Staff College as the top
priority in professionalizing the Ethiopian military. Meles
stressed the need for continued logistical support, primarily
spare parts for aircraft were also essential.

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SOMALIA OPERATIONS
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4. (S/NF) The Prime Minister lamented that Ethiopia continues
to carry the primary burden of providing force protection for
the TFG, support for the Ugandan troops, and training of TFG
officials and military. Thus far, the international
community has not responded adequately to calls to provide
the financial assistance to support the TFG, undercutting its
viability and chance of survival. Besides the United States,
the Prime Minister praised Saudi Arabia for its financial
contribution to the TFG. On AMISOM troop deployments, Meles
expressed deep pessimism that Ugandan troops would soon be
relieved with additional troops. Meles gave Burundi only a
30 percent chance of being deployed and a much smaller chance
of any other country providing troops for Somalia operations.
Ethiopia has, and will continue to, finance training for TFG
officials in hopes of creating capacity for the TFG to
operate a government. Further, Ethiopia has trained some
600-700 TFG troops from various clans, forming an integrated
brigade. Should this effort succeed, another one thousand
troops will be trained and Meles expressed his hope that this
would be sufficient to stabilize the TFG and allow Ethiopia
troops to leave Somalia. The PM shared that there is concern among the

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newly trained TFG troops that they will be forced to rejoin their clan
militias instead of being allowed to participate as a National Force. A
joint Ugandan-Ethopian military training program of TFG troops
failed when Uganda could not meet its commitment due to lack of
funds. The Ethiopian troops proceeded with training of TFG forces
in Mogadishu. Meles said that they hoped to pull out some Ethiopian
troops by the summer but would retain their flexibility to react to the
situation inside Somalia. Meles believes that it
would be impossible to stop the violence completely but said that it
could be managed. He said that "terrorism" is their
primary focus and that a lot of the terrorist attacks going on in
Mogadishu are being done by "free lancers" who need the money.


5. (S/NF) The Prime Minster used the phrase "feckless" to
express his frustration with the TFG and leadership across a
spectrum of government institutions. He noted the leadership
needed to be more effective in forming a cohesive government.
The National Reconciliation Congress would hopefully support
the strengthening of the TFG. Financial challenges, fighting
corruption and securing assistance will be key to the TFG's
survival. Overall, the Prime Minister was confident that the
TFG would survive. After the next training program of TFG
military personnel, the TFG would be able to handle
insurgents and extremists in most of Somalia. The hard-core
extremists in the lower Juba area, from Kismayo and to the
south, are tough. But a containment strategy would help
limit operations by extremists and allow the TFG to
consolidate their hold on the rest of the country.

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OGADEN AND ERITREA
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6. (S/NF) Meles believes that insurgent operations by the
ONLF in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia pose the greatest
domestic threat to their stability and does not want this to
become a defining issue. Symptomatic of the problems in the
neighboring Somalia, Prime Minister Meles felt that the ONLF
can be contained and the Ogaden region stabilized.
Complaining about misinformation about the Ogaden, Meles
underscored that the situation is improving. Eritrea, the
Prime Minister pointed out, was taking advantage of regional
strife to undermine regional peace and security. Meles said
that he understands that CJTF-HOA may not want to involve
themselves in the Ogaden issue, but CJTF-HOA could play a
positive role in contribution to regional stability by
continuing its programs in the region and expanding its
coordination with the GOE from information sharing to
logistical support. Meles stated that the Ogaden situation
cannot be resolved by military means alone and also must
address food issues. Eritrea has been engaged in activities
to exacerbate regional instability through arms flows to
insurgents and support for operations against Ethiopia as
well as for rebel groups in Ethiopia, Meles argued. Meles
also believes the Eritrea situation can be resolved
peacefully and that Ethiopia would not allow Eritrea to
provoke them. He said that at present Ethiopia would
maintain the status quo.

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SUDAN
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7. (S/NF) Meles commented that Sudan was Ethiopia's second
major challenge after Somalia. To support stabilization of
Sudan, Ethiopia is committed to providing peace keeping
troops for Sudan. Regardless of Ethiopia's financial strain
in sustaining operations in Somalia, Meles regarded Sudan as
critical to regional peace and to Ethiopia's security.

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COMMENT
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8. (S/NF) Meles' warm reception of Admiral Hart underscores
the evolving perception of the U.S. Only a few months ago,
the ENDF complained bitterly about the lack of U.S.
commitment to meet past promises. Since then, Central
Command, CJTF-HOA and other DOD elements along with State

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Department funding have procured 3 million USD in C-130 spare
parts a major thorn in bilateral relations since 2000 when
U.S. officials promised to provide the spare parts. Further,
DOD elements are identifying assigned personnel to support
the U.S.-established and State Department financed Command
and Staff college, a high priority for the GOE, but it is
only a temporary fix. Committed funding and staffing needs
to be identified immediately and put into effect if the
school is to remain open. Further, strong USG support for
humanitarian efforts in the Ogaden and support for Ethiopia
and the African Union in Somalia have enhanced bilateral
relations.
YAMAMOTO