ETHIOPIAN POPULAR OPINION: INFLATION, POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000258

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/25/17
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN POPULAR OPINION: INFLATION, POLITICAL
PRISONERS LEAD CONCERNS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 00170


1. (C) SUMMARY In an informal survey Post conducted of Addis
Ababa residents, interviewees said that the current domestic
political climate has yet to recover fully from the violence
that marked the 2005 post-election period, and that a subdued
anger continues to fester as a result. However, despite the
political unease, people's more immediate concerns relate to
the increasing difficulty to make financial ends meet.
Rising prices (over 20 percent last year) for food and other
necessities are a daily concern for many, as incomes have not
kept up with inflation, despite strong growth in the economy
on the whole. Most respondents also said they support the
GoE's involvement in Somalia and felt that intervention was
necessary to prevent the spread of terrorism across borders.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On January 23, Poloff and senior political FSN
conducted a random survey of Addis Ababa residents in order
to gauge public opinion on key economic issues, the domestic
political environment, and Ethiopia's intervention in
Somalia. Though the sample size of respondents was not large
(around 20),an effort was made to interview Ethiopians from
various socio-economic backgrounds, ethnicities and
religions. (COMMENT: It should be noted that the survey was
conducted only in Addis Ababa, which voted strongly in favor
of opposition parities in the 2005 election. END COMMENT).

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TROUBLE AFFORDING THEIR DAILY INJERA
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3. (SBU) In light of the strong economic growth that Ethiopia
has experienced over the last three years (6-8 percent),
Poloff asked respondents whether they feel they are better
off today than one or two years ago. Sixty-five percent said
no, while those remaining said that their situation had
improved moderately. Those who indicated that they are
currently worse off all pointed to inflation as the key
factor affecting them, particularly in the prices of basic
food stuffs such as tef, the grain used to make the national
staple bread injera. One interviewee, a social worker, said
that prices for food had increased so much that he no longer
can afford to eat three times per day, and is now forced to
limit himself to two meals. Respondents also said that
inflation in the areas of rent and transportation costs have
also affected their daily lives. Most of those who
complained of these issues, including one government
employee, said that wages had failed to keep up with price
increases.


4. (SBU) When asked what they felt the GoE could or should do
to help improve the economic situation of the average
citizen, the majority of respondents said they would like to
see the government intervene in the markets for staple
commodities and to put a cap on rising prices. Many also
said that more could be done to stimulate investment,
particularly as it relates the construction industry.

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CUD RELEASE WOULD HEAL WOUNDS, DERG IRRELEVANT
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5. (SBU) Interviewees were asked whether they thought the
current political climate in the capital had calmed
noticeably since post-election disturbances in June and
November 2005. Though some said things were slowly getting
back to normal, the majority recited nearly the same thing
)- that the situation appears calm on the surface, but in
fact people were still upset from the results of the May 2005
parliamentary elections and the government's response to the
protests that followed. Several noted that they are afraid
to be vocal in opposition to government policies as a result.
When asked what, if anything, the GoE could do in order to
ease the tension that remains, all said that a release of the
Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) leaders currently on
trial for treason and genocide, as well as opening up of
political space for political opposition, would send a very
strong positive signal to the general populace.


6. (SBU) As a follow-up, interviewees were asked whether the
events following the last election have influenced their
willingness to participate in future elections, in particular
the upcoming local elections in 2007. The majority said that
they participated in the last election, but will not do so in

ADDIS ABAB 00000258 002 OF 002


the future unless the political climate changes
significantly. Only a few of the respondents said that they
would vote regardless. Nearly the same set of respondents
that said the domestic political situation remains unstable,
also said that they follow the trial of the CUD leaders in
the press. All of those that follow the CUD trial said they
do not believe the GoE is handling the case in a fair and
transparent manner.


7. (SBU) Respondents were most split when asked whether they
felt the recent sentencing of former Derg officials (reftel
A) was too harsh, too lenient, or appropriate. Those that
said that it was fair, including one interviewee that
reported having a relative killed by the Derg regime,
expressed relief that the defendants were not given the death
penalty. Some though felt that the Derg deserved more severe
punishment in light of the seriousness of the crimes that
were committed ) several said they felt the defendants
"should be hanged." A surprising number, particularly those
interviewees under 30 years old, said that the punishment was
too severe and that, "their acts are water under the bridge,
or that "Ethiopia should move on." Others said that the
courts decision is irrelevant and that punishing these
officials now, after a very long trial, "is like flogging a
dead horse." A few also said that they are unaware of what
crimes were committed and therefore had no opinion.

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PRESENCE IN SOMALIA NECESSARY TO PROTECT BORDERS
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8. (SBU) Three-quarters of respondents reported that they
support Ethiopia's military intervention in Somalia. Of
those, only two said that they initially were opposed and
then changed their mind. Some added that they would have
preferred that the Somali Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) been able to handle the conflict alone, but agreed with
the GoE,s decision to intervene in order to protect the
country. When asked to what extent they felt Eritrea's role
in supporting the CIC had in Ethiopia's decision to become
involved, all but one respondent said they did not know
because there has been no obvious link demonstrated in the
media. Poloff asked to what extent they felt the GoE was
influenced to become involved in Somalia as a result of US
foreign policy, the war on terrorism or the US's pursuit of
al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. Nearly all respondents said that
Ethiopia became involved on its own accord and due to the
threat perceived to Ethiopia by terrorism. Some did say they
felt that the US had blessed Ethiopia's involvement by
tacitly supporting military action. Lastly, when asked
whether they believed what effect the war in Somalia had on
domestic Ethiopian politics, most saw no direct impact,
though one person reported that he had heard of police
round-ups of people who appear to be of Somali origin.

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COMMENT: CUD DETAINEES REMAIN MAIN CHALLENGE FOR GOE
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9. (SBU) While the military operation in Somalia remains an
important challenge for the GOE, at home the primary concerns
remain high food prices and continuing resentment over 2005
elections and their fallout. The military success in Somalia
has probably strengthened GoE's standing somewhat -- winning
greater popular respect, if not love -- but real stability
will require a resolution of the detained CUD leaders'
situation in particular. The current harvest season has not
relieved pressure on food prices. Hoarding by farmers has
kept prices artificially high. Prime Minister Meles
requested food aid for the urban poor to force prices down to
a more natural market price level.
YAMAMOTO