Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA2392
2007-07-30 15:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

SOMALI TFG PRIME MINISTER GHEDI OPTIMISTIC ABOUT

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM KPKO SO EG QA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHDS #2392/01 2111550
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 301550Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7238
INFO RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 0684
RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA IMMEDIATE 0179
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 002392 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KPKO SO EG QA
SUBJECT: SOMALI TFG PRIME MINISTER GHEDI OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION CONFERENCE

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2185


B. ADDIS ABABA 1771

Classified By: ERIC WONG, ACTING DCM. REASON: 1.4 (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 002392

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KPKO SO EG QA
SUBJECT: SOMALI TFG PRIME MINISTER GHEDI OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION CONFERENCE

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2185


B. ADDIS ABABA 1771

Classified By: ERIC WONG, ACTING DCM. REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Transitional Federal Government of Somalia
(TFG) Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi, accompanied by TFG
Foreign Minister Hussein Elabe Fahiye, informed Ambassador on
July 27 that earlier meetings with AU Commission Chairperson
Konare and French FM Kouchner "went well," with Kouchner
noting that France was providing USD 500,000 to transport a
contingent from Burundi to deploy with the African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). PM Ghedi expressed optimism
about the ongoing Somali National Reconciliation Conference
(NRC),which was expected to continue for another 45 days, in
order to promote reconciliation and forgiveness, as well as
the roadmap for political transition and 2009 elections. The
conference would also likely recommend the registration of
property ownership, to clarify the status of property
currently being occupied, which remained contentious. Ghedi
cited no new formulas for power-sharing but noted that
individuals could be replaced, and offered to step down as
Prime Minister, if it led to Somaliland supporting the TFG.
On international partners, Ghedi appealed for U.S. assistance
in facilitating meetings with the prime ministers of Egypt
and Qatar, citing Qatar's opposition to the TFG and its
proposal to host an alternate Somali reconciliation
conference in either Asmara or Doha. Italy had pledged 10
million Euros for AMISOM, and another 5 million Euros for the
NRC. Ghedi asserted that former Council of Islamic Courts
(CIC) leader Adan Hashi Ayro had recently met with
"Islamicists" in Ethiopia's Somali Region, and had reportedly
formed an alliance with Ethiopian rebels from the Ogaden
National Liberation Front (ONLF) in order to destabilize both
Somali and the adjacent Somali Region. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --

FRANCE SUPPORTING BURUNDI CONTINGENT FOR AMISOM
-------------- --


2. (C) Ambassador and A/DCM met on July 27 with TFG Prime
Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi and TFG Foreign Minister Hussein
Elabe Fahiye, who were visiting Addis Ababa for consultations
with African Union Commission Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare
and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. Ghedi was also
scheduled to meet Ethiopian PM Meles on July 28, prior to
departing July 29. According to Ghedi, his meetings with
Konare and Kouchner "went well," with Kouchner noting that
France was providing USD 500,000 to help transport a
French-trained and supported contingent from Burundi to
deploy with AMISOM. Kouchner had reportedly said that it was
now "too early" to deploy a hybrid (i.e., AU-UN) peacekeeping
force in Somalia.


3. (C) PM Ghedi expressed optimism about the ongoing NRC,
observing that it "started very well" and had surpassed
expectations. Many in the international community--except
Uganda, Kenya, Yemen, and Ethiopia--had doubted the NRC would
occur; the UN did not attend the conference opening. The
recent amnesty had encouraged the emergence of moderates in
Mogadishu; only former CIC leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed
and "politicians" remained in isolation in Asmara. The next
6 days would address forgiveness among Somali clans,
concluding with a ceremony involving TFG President Abdullahi
Yusuf, PM Ghedi, and others declaring forgiveness. Then, the
"political reconciliation process" would be presented:
addressing such political transition issues as the
constitution, the establishment of political parties,
power-sharing, conducting a census, the formation of a
national electoral board, and preparations for 2009 national
elections. The NRC would thus continue for another 45 days:
30 days in order to further reconciliation, and another 10-15
days to promote the roadmap for transition. If the NRC
concluded successfully, some 300-400 traditional leaders
(ougazes, sultans, elders) would travel to Mecca, at the
invitation of Saudi Arabia's King Abdallah.


4. (C) Ghedi asserted that reconciliation had led to improved
security in Mogadishu, with no mortar attacks or bombings in
the last 4-5 days. Mogadishu Mayor Mohamed Dhere had cleared

roads in the city, including in Bakara Market, and had
removed illegally constructed kiosks. A delegation of EU and
UN representatives was scheduled to visit Mogadishu on July

28.


5. (C) The occupation of property in Mogadishu by
Hawiye/Habr-Gedir/Ayr and other sub-clans remained a
contentious issue, Ghedi said, adding that even two TFG
cabinet ministers were directly affected, with one minister
occupying the other's house. Ghedi said he expected the NRC
to call for property to be registered to original owners.
Property registration would serve merely to acknowledge who
was occupying property, he said; it would not lead to
immediate evictions. The UN Human Settlements Program (UN
HABITAT) sought to assist with the repatriation of displaced
Somalis, he said, but that would require Somalis returning to
their original residences. Ghedi also appealed for
international donor assistance to help fund the construction
of low-income housing for Somalia.

-------------- --------------
GHEDI READY TO GIVE UP OFFICE--IF SOMALILAND JOINS TFG
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Asked the outcome if the NRC were to make
power-sharing recommendations, Ghedi noted that the Hawiye
clan now had 61 seats in parliament, and that each of the
four major Somali clans had 7 ministers in the federal
government. Power-sharing was thus not an issue, he said,
although individual "personalities" could be replaced. Asked
how the TFG would respond if the NRC were to recommend the
replacement of TFG principals, Ghedi replied that he was
ready to be replaced, if necessary. Ghedi added that if
Somaliland sought the Prime Minister position, "I will offer
it for the sake of Somali unity." Ghedi noted his close
family ties to Somaliland leaders, and asserted that his
family was currently collecting and sending monthly rent from
Mogadishu to 10-15 Somaliland absentee landlords that it
represented. FM Fahiye added that he was from Borema, in
western Somaliland, and that peace in Mogadishu would help
attract support from those "in the north" (i.e., Somaliland).

-------------- --------------
SLOW DEPLOYMENT OF AMISOM HAMPERS ETHIOPIAN WITHDRAWAL
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Ghedi complained that slow deployment of AMISOM
hampered the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. The anticipated
success of the NRC in September 2007 would present an
opportunity for Ethiopian troops to withdraw, Ghedi said.
Furthermore, both Ethiopia and Uganda were currently training
TFG security forces; once 10,000 were trained, security could
be handled, so long as "terrorist elements" were targeted.
Citing strong statements in support of AMISOM and the NRC by
the U.S. and UK at the previous international contact group
meeting, FM Fahiye appealed for greater financial support
from donors. Ghedi added that while Italy had pledged 10
million Euros for AMISOM to the AU, and another 5 million
Euros to support the NRC, these funds had not yet been
received.

--------------
ASSISTANCE NEEDED TO ENGAGE EGYPT AND QATAR
--------------


8. (C) While expressing appreciation for recent support from
Saudi Arabia, PM Ghedi underscored the need for the TFG to
engage other Arab states, particularly Egypt and Qatar.
Ghedi said he sought to see Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed
Nazif or Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, as Somalia
needed to "strike a balance" between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Ghedi said it was also important for him to meet with Qatar's
Prime Minister Hamad, as Qatar was currently only meeting TFG
"opponents" and had close ties to Eritrea's President Isaias.
According to Ghedi, Qatari PM Hamad had consulted Saudi
Arabia's King Abdallah to seek Saudi support for a Somali
reconciliation conference in Asmara or Doha; Abdallah had
reportedly responded that Saudi Arabia was supporting the
existing NRC in Mogadishu. Ghedi added that during recent
UNSC consultations, in response to a USG representative

calling for immediate support to the TFG, the Qatari PermRep
had stated that there could be "no support" of the TFG unless
Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia. FM Fahiye questioned
why the USG could not influence Qatar. Ambassador pledged to
convey Ghedi's request for meetings to appropriate officials
in Cairo and Doha.


9. (C) Citing recent meetings with U.S. officials in
Washington, Ghedi expressed appreciation for U.S. support,
and noted that President Yusuf (now visiting Puntland),FM
Fahiye, and other TFG ministers would meet soon in Nairobi
with U.S. officials. Security, reconciliation, health,
education, and water were priorities for discussion, he said.
Ghedi observed that he would accompany President Yusuf to
the UN General Assembly in New York in September, in order to
follow up on previous consultations with UNSC members.

-------------- --------------
EX-CIC ELEMENTS ALLIED WITH ETHIOPIA'S ONLF REBELS
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Questioned about how Ethiopia's ongoing
counterinsurgency against ethnic Somali ONLF rebels in
Ethiopia's Somali Regional State affected Somalia, Ghedi
asserted that "Islamicists" led by former CIC leader Adan
Hashi Ayro had met recently in Ferfer, Ethiopia (part of the
Somali Region's Gode Zone, bordering Somalia),and were now
in an alliance with the ONLF to destabilize Somalia and
Ethiopia's adjacent Somali Region. Members of the ONLF, the
Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),and other "terrorist elements"
were now in Asmara, Ghedi said. As Ayro was close to ONLF
leaders and sought to destabilize Somalia, the situation in
the Ogaden was of concern to the TFG. Alluding to reports
that Ethiopia's counterinsurgency in the Ogaden was causing
civilian suffering, Ghedi noted that any conflict would
"touch the people," particularly as there was much
cross-border linkage among pastoralist Somalis in both
Somalia and Ethiopia's Somali Region. Ghedi pledged to raise
concerns about the Ogaden counterinsurgency with PM Meles.


11. (C) COMMENT. Prime Minister Ghedi's statement that the
ongoing National Reconciliation Conference would spend 30
days fostering reconciliation and forgiveness, and then
another 10-15 days discussing the political transition
leading up to 2009 elections, reflects an important departure
from earlier briefings (ref B),in which he highlighted that
the NRC would aim only at "social reconciliation." Ghedi's
observation that he would yield his position as Prime
Minister to a Somalilander "for the sake of Somali unity,"
and his highlighting that Foreign Minister Fahiye hails from
Somaliland, underscores that even if the NRC succeeds in
addressing power-sharing, property registration, and
preparations for 2009 national elections, the status of
Somaliland remains unresolved. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO