DEMARCHE DELIVERED: ETHIOPIAN VIEWS ON AU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000232

SIPDIS

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DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PREL AU SU ET ER
SUBJECT: DEMARCHE DELIVERED: ETHIOPIAN VIEWS ON AU
CHAIRMANSHIP VOTE

REF: A. STATE 8022 (NOTAL)


B. STATE 8619 (NOTAL)

Classified By: ERIC WONG, DEPUTY POL-ECON COUNSELOR. REASONS: 1.4 (B),
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador delivered ref A points on January
23 to State Minister of Foreign Affairs Tekeda Alemu.
Minister Tekeda highlighted that while Ethiopia believed
selecting Sudanese President Bashir as African Union Assembly
Chair was not desirable for the AU, Ethiopia could not openly
oppose Bashir's candidacy for fear of alienating
pro-Ethiopian elements within the GOS, which would thus drive
Sudan closer to Eritrea. While noting that Bashir's
candidacy violated a 2005 agreement that allowed Sudan to
host the January 2006 AU Summit, Tekeda observed that the
January 2006 Summit had affirmed Bashir's taking the
Chairmanship in 2007. Opposing Bashir's candidacy risked
creating fault lines between Arab and African states, Tekeda
added, with League of Arab States members (especially Egypt
and Libya) likely backing Sudan. Tekeda identified the
presidents of South Africa, Rwanda, Uganda, and Ghana as
possible alternates. END SUMMARY.

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ETHIOPIA: CANNOT OPENLY OPPOSE BASHIR
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2. (C) Minister Tekeda, accompanied by MFA acting Director
General for Europe and America Almaz Ameha and First
Secretary Araya Kidane, said Ethiopia recognized that a

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Bashir chairmanship would leave the AU "paralyzed for a
year." Recognizing the situation as "tragic," Tekeda
nevertheless questioned what Ethiopia could do. He noted GOE
concern that some GOS leaders were "leaning toward Eritrea,"
and thus opposed to Ethiopian interests. To avoid causing
political harm to GOS leaders leaning toward Ethiopia, rather
than Eritrea, Ethiopia could not be seen as confronting
Sudan. "Don't take our reticence as evidence of support" for
Bashir, Tekeda said.

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JAN. 2006 SUMMIT AFFIRMED BASHIR FOR 2007
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3. (C) Tekeda explained that Bashir's candidacy was improper:
representing the GOS's reneging on a pledge to de-link AU
Assembly Chairmanship from the geographical location of the
semi-annual AU Summits. The January 2005 AU Summit had
concluded that the AU Summit held each January would always
occur in Addis Ababa, while the Summit held each June would
rotate. However, immediately following that decision, Bashir
had pleaded for the January 2006 Summit to be held in
Khartoum, citing Sudan's jubilee. AU leaders agreed to this
exception, Tekeda said, but on the condition that Sudan would
not seek the AU Assembly Chairmanship. "It was on this basis
that the January 2006 Summit was held in Khartoum," Tekeda
said.


4. (C) Tekeda noted that African leaders attending the
January 2006 Summit in Khartoum had concluded that while
Bashir could not hold the Chairmanship at that time, Bashir
could do so in 2007. Thus, while Bashir's candidacy violated
the agreement made in January 2005, the January 2006 Summit
had affirmed Bashir's ascendancy, rather than quashing it.
"Therefore, it's not going to be easy," Tekeda said. Tekeda
mused that Nigerian President Obasanjo had hoped that the
"commotion" over Bashir's candidacy would have led AU members
to propose extending Obasanjo as Assembly Chairman.


5. (C) Opposing Bashir's candidacy risked creating fault
lines between Arab and African states, Tekeda added, with
League of Arab States members (especially Egypt and Libya)
likely backing Sudan. Some African countries were "willing
to stick their neck out" for Bashir, he commented.

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POSSIBLE ALTERNATES: EAST AFRICAN PRESIDENTS
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6. (C) Questioned about possible alternate candidates, Tekeda

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said "solid candidates" included: South African President
Thabo Mbeki, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Rwandan
President Paul Kagame, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, and
Ghanaian John Agyekum Kufuor. Tekeda noted that Botswana
perpetually sought the Chairmanship as well. While Tekeda
hailed the virtues of PM Meles, he observed that Ethiopia
"should not be seen as competing with Sudan."


7. (C) COMMENT: Ethiopia's reluctance to oppose the GOS
openly and thus empower pro-Eritrean elements, underscores
Ethiopia's concern about endangering its strategic
relationship with Sudan, from which it obtains a growing
amount of petroleum. Asmara's hosting of eastern front talks
to mediate among Sudanese factions, and its close ties with a
number of Sudanese rebel groups, however, indicate that
Ethiopian concerns about Eritrean engagement with Sudan are
not without foundation. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO