ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER MELES TO RELEASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002005

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND DRL: S.JOSEPH
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2017
TAGS: PHUM KJUS KDEM PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER MELES TO RELEASE
POLITICAL DETAINEES, DESPITE INTERNAL OPPOSITION

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 01420 AND PREVIOUS

B. ADDIS ABABA 01818

ADDIS ABAB 00002005 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On June 22, the many months of shuttle
diplomacy on the part of Professor Ephraim Isaac to secure
release of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD)
political detainees reached an important milestone. Nearly
two weeks after the High Court announced their conviction on
criminal charges, the 21-member CUD Supreme Council agreed
unanimously to sign a document admitting their "mistakes,"
thereby complying with the Prime Minister's condition for
granting clemency. Almost all of the remaining 40 detainees
in GOE custody, including members of the media, have signed
as well. (The two civil society representatives decided
against signing and will continue their legal defense; their
trial resumes on July 12.) The Tigrayan People's Liberation
Front (TPLF) Central Committee on June 23 reluctantly
approved the PM's proposal to release the prisoners, but
forced a two-week delay in the announcement. This gives
hard-liners in the TPLF, as well as those in the CUD, who
oppose any deal with the PM, more time to "deep six" the
agreement. Post urges no public statements during this
sensitive period. END SUMMARY.

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ELDERS WORK HARD TO BROKER DEAL
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2. (C) The first order of business on Professor Ephraim's
current trip to Ethiopia was meeting with PM Meles on June 13
to discuss the state of negotiations with the CUD leadership
(on hold since his prior visit in April) and the terms that
the detainees must agree to in order to secure their release
(ref A). The PM agreed that if the detainees each signed
individual documents acknowledging that they made a mistake
by "attempting to change the government through illegal
means," they would be released and given unconditional
freedom. The exact wording of the document had previously
been a point of contention, but Professor Ephraim and the
Elders negotiated tirelessly to arrive at agreeable language
for both CUD and TPLF leadership. During the week of June
18, Ephraim spent countless hours at Kaliti prison working
with CUD leadership on their decision to sign the release
document. Indeed, in a breakthrough on June 22, all 21
members of the CUD Supreme Council agreed unanimously to sign
the document. This move by the leadership prompted
signatures of nearly all of the remaining 40 detainees,
including members of the media, on June 25. However, the two
civil society representatives decided against signing and
will continue their legal defense. Their trial will resume
on July 12. (ref B)

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MELES TAKES BOLD MOVE
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3. (C) Professor Ephraim relayed the good news to PM Meles
late on June 22, though much of the hard work was still to
come. During a previously scheduled meeting of the central
committee of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) on June 23, PM Meles presented his
plans to release the CUD detainees on the basis of their
statement acknowledging mistakes and agreeing to uphold the
constitution. During the meeting, Meles faced sharp
criticism from the hard-liners of his own TPLF Central
Committee, many of whom vehemently oppose release of the CUD
detainees. They pointed out that a release at this point
would amount to circumventing the judicial process, given
that the detainees had been convicted, but not yet sentenced
(ref B). They further noted that negative attention coming
from American media, as well as from the U.S. Congress, makes
any action at this point appear that the GOE capitulated to
public pressure. In the end, after a prolonged debate, PM
Meles was able to secure agreement from the Central
Committee, but the apparent difficulty he faced in doing so
is evidence that the TPLF is not the one-man show that some
believe it is.

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ADDIS ABAB 00002005 002.2 OF 002


WHEN THEN RELEASED?
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4. (C) In order to secure agreement from the TPLF Central
Committee to release the CUD detainees, PM Meles agreed that
Ethiopia's High Court would first be permitted to complete
the sentencing of those found guilty, scheduled to take place
on July 9. Following that, the detainees who signed the
document are expected to be released, and the GOE will issue
a statement explaining the move. PM Meles asked Professor
Ephraim to return to Ethiopia at that time, when the Elders
are also expected to issue a statement on the release and the
need for national reconciliation.

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COMMENT: NEXT 10 DAYS CRITICAL
--------------


5. (C) The coming two weeks before the sentencing and
subsequent release of the detainees are very volatile. PM
Meles took a very significant political risk by pushing TPLF
hard-liners to agree to release the CUD detainees. Those in
the TPLF Central Committee undoubtedly will be looking for a
means to reverse this decision. Additional negative
attention from the international media, and more importantly
from the U.S. Congress, could potentially cause the agreement
to derail, resulting in a disaster for Ethiopian peace and
stability. This breakthrough, won through the hard work of
Professor Ephraim and his fellow Ethiopian Elders, as well
the political risks taken by PM Meles, would make
immeasurable progress in repairing the damage done following
the post-May 2005 election protests.


6. (C) The GOE is very thankful to the Embassy and the
Department for getting the U.S. Congress to delay mark-up of
Representative Payne's Ethiopia bill. But CUD hard-liners in
the U.S. have been critical of any agreement with the PM.
From very harsh phone calls and emails to the Ambassador, it
is clear that the CUD hard-liners in the U.S. view continued
detention as the best means to hammer the PM. Their release
would force them to find other areas in which to go after the
GOE. END COMMENT.


7. (U) ACTION REQUEST. Post requests the Department to
continue to use previously agreed upon language to answer any
possible questions on this matter. Additionally, upon
release of the detainees, Post requests that the Department
issue the following statement:

BEGIN TEXT.

The United States expresses it deep appreciation to the
Ethiopian Elders for their tireless and unselfish dedication
to advancing political openness and dialogue in Ethiopia.
Their efforts were at the heart of the successes we now
recognize. Prime Minister Meles and his government took a
bold step in the release of the detainees. We applaud and
commend the Government of Ethiopia for its action. We also
commend and support the political opposition for its
commitment to dialogue and promoting peaceful solutions. We
also express our commitment to help the detainees upon
release.

END TEXT.
YAMAMOTO