ETHIOPIA: REACHING OUT TO THE OLF AND CUTTING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001961

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS ER ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: REACHING OUT TO THE OLF AND CUTTING
ERITREA'S DIVISIVE INFLUENCE


Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Norwegian Church Aid representatives Arne
Saeveraas and Hans Birkeland told Ambassador June 21 that
while there was little progress on their mediation efforts
between the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ethiopian
Government, they were keeping lines of communications open.
The continued presence of OLF hard-liners and leaders in
Asmara remains a stumbling block to progress in engaging
Ethiopian leaders and the OLF, but the Norwegians are hopeful
that they can bring moderate elements of the OLF into closer
dialogue with Ethiopian officials. Sebhat Nega, TPLF central
committee member and stalwart within the Ethiopian
government, is scheduled to travel to Europe in the near
future to meet with OLF representatives. The Norwegians
believe that strong U.S. support for the moderate OLF
leadership will help undercut Asmara,s divisive influence
and bolster a greater opening between the OLF and Ethiopian
government. Embassy supports Norway's approach and believes
encouragement of the Ethiopian Government and outreach to the
OLF moderates on a dialogue will enhance internal Ethiopian
peace and stability. END SUMMARY.


2. (S/NF) Norwegian Church Aid special advisor Arne Saeveraas
and country representative Hans Birkeland briefed Ambassador
on their latest discussions with Ethiopian officials on an
OLF engagement. Saeveraas said Norwegian Church Aid and
Norwegian Government remained hopeful but that the current
dialogue between the OLF and Ethiopian Government (which is
conducted in Brussels through former Ethiopian Ambassador to
the U.S. and current Ambassador to the EU Berhane
Gebrechristol) required higher Ethiopian attention.
Ambassador Berhane, a conservative hard-line member of the
Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF),had been a barrier
to dialogue. Saeveraas noted that TPLF central committee
member and stalwart of the Ethiopian Government, Sebhat Nega,
who remains a close advisor to Prime Minister Meles, plans to
travel to Europe in August to meet with moderate OLF
officials.


3. (S/NF) While Sebhat,s involvement is hopeful, Saeveraas
is trying to push the Ethiopians to reach out and engage the
moderate elements of the OLF rather than to set conditions
for expanded dialogue. Saeveraas noted that so long as
Asmara hosted and played a significant role influencing the
hard-line OLF members and much of the leadership, expanded
OLF-Ethiopia dialogue would be difficult. Saeveraas said
moderate OLF leaders like former leader Leencho Lata were
being marginalized by more hard-line members resident in
Asmara.

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U.S. MUST PLAY A ROLE
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4. (S/NF) Saeveraas and Birkeland both underscored the
importance of the U.S. to the process. Public encouragement
by the U.S. and other countries for the moderate wing of the
OLF would help bolster OLF leaders seeking a dialogue with
Ethiopia and moderate the influence of the hard-liners in
Eritrea. Saeveraas suggested that Norway could host a
meeting of the OLF leadership, including those from Asmara,
but there needed to be strong support from the U.S. and other
countries to help moderate OLF leaders demonstrate to their
membership that the path of dialogue was more effective than
armed resistance and the more intolerant rhetoric of
hard-line members.


5. (S/NF) Further, both Norwegian Church Aid officials said
that the U.S. and other countries privately encouraging the
Ethiopian Government to reach out to the moderate OLF leaders
would be the best way to undercut Asmara,s negative
influence.


6. (S/NF) COMMENT. Over two years ago, the Africa Bureau,
working with Norway, engaged moderate elements of the OLF and
encouraged Prime Minister Meles and his envoy, Ambassador
Berhane, to take a more positive approach to OLF-Ethiopia
Government discussions. A meeting with some OLF leaders,
including a few based in Asmara, over two years ago at the
State Department, while highly encouraging, did not lead to

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greater USG involvement, because of the lack of interagency
consensus and differing views with Post which did not fully
support engagement.


7. (S/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED. Tough measures adopted by
Ethiopian security forces in parts of the country in response
to increased security threats and continued political
differences between Oromo and Ethiopian Government leaders
make dialogue between the Government and the OLF challenging.
A dialogue with moderate elements, an effort Prime Minister
Meles supports, should be encouraged. Post recommends that
the interagency support the Norwegian efforts for a moderate
OLF-Ethiopian Government dialogue, and that the U.S. play a
greater supportive role, along with our European colleagues,
in encouraging expanded dialogue. Getting the OLF leadership
and supporters out of Asmara would be critical to a
successful dialogue, but the U.S. and others will need to
encourage the OLF that dialogue will be more beneficial in
securing long-term peace, than armed resistance or opposition
to dialogue. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO