SOMALIA: ETHIOPIA ON TFG INCLUSIVENESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000161

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, AF/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ETHIOPIA ON TFG INCLUSIVENESS

REF: A. 1/17/06 FRAZER-YAMAMOTO TELCON

B. STATE 4804 (NOTAL)

C. ADDIS ABABA 95

D. ADDIS ABABA 89

E. ADDIS ABABA 80

Classified By: DEPUTY POL-ECON COUNSELOR ERIC WONG. REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In ongoing discussions with GOE principals,
Ambassador has repeatedly raised ref B points on the need to,
inter alia, encourage Somali Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) leaders to not only reconcile with TFG Speaker Shariff
Hassan, but also to reach out to all Somali stakeholders.
Prime Minister Meles has explicitly urged TFG President Yusuf
to delay efforts to impeach the Speaker, but assesses that
the Speaker suffers from a weakening political base, and that
neither the Speaker nor TFG Prime Minister Ghedi play a
significant role in the TFG. END SUMMARY.

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MELES HAS ADVISED YUSUF TO DELAY SPEAKER'S IMPEACHMENT
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2. (C) Per ref A, Ambassador underscored to Prime Minister
Meles on January 17 that the TFG should be urged not to
impeach TFG Speaker Shariff Hassan or TFG Prime Minister Ali
Mohammed Ghedi, as doing so would undermine international
support for the TFG, which now required a semblance of unity.
Meles informed Ambassador that he had urged TFG President
Abdullahi Yusuf to delay any impeachment of the Speaker.
Meles observed that while the Speaker had been acting as a
"government in exile," and remained in direct contact with
remnants of the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) leadership,
Meles had nevertheless still asked Yusuf to delay his
impeachment.


3. (C) Ambassador remarked that TFG actions on Shariff could
undermine international support for the TFG. Meles responded
that if the EU were conditioning support for IGASOM or for
the TFG on political reconciliation, then it was giving in to
the "Somalia mafia" in Nairobi (i.e., remnants of the CIC).
Meles urged that the EU and others in the international
community support the peace process in Somalia without
establishing any preconditions or "excuses."

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MELES REPORTS YUSUF PLEDGES TO LAUNCH INCLUSIVE DIALOGUE
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4. (C) Ambassador highlighted the need for TFG inclusiveness
in several previous meetings on Somalia with both PM Meles
Zenawi and Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin. GOE principals
share our understanding of the need to promote TFG
inclusiveness, and have raised it with President Abdullahi
Yusuf and other TFG leaders:

-- Ambassador raised ref B points with PM Meles on January
16, with FM Seyoum on January 11 (ref D),and with deputy
foreign minister Tekeda Alemu on January 12 (septel). FM
Seyoum observed that PM Meles had discussed the issue at
length with TFG President Yusuf, and that Yusuf did not favor
impeaching Speaker Shariff Hassan, despite pressure from TFG
parliamentarians to do so (ref D).

-- On January 9, Meles informed Ambassador that he had raised
the need for TFG inclusiveness with President Yusuf. Meles
noted that he had urged Yusuf to foster a representative
political dialogue among Somalis by engaging Hawiye and other
clan elders and integrating clan militias into a unified
army. Meles reported that Yusuf acknowledged the need for
inclusive dialogue "from the bottom up," which would involve
all clans. Yusuf had also informed Meles that the TFG
intended to work collaboratively with stake-holders to
establish provincial-level government structures and to hold
a national reconciliation conference, involving
representatives of all provinces as well as the Somali
diaspora (ref E).

-- In a January 10 press conference, Meles publicly commented
that Yusuf had pledged to engage with former CIC members,
saying "the President assured me that he would negotiate with
all clans... with all religious leaders... with all
businessmen... with those civil society associations which
are not directly associated with Al Qaeda. And therefore
that should cover the whole gamut of moderate Islamicists in
Somalia" (ref C).


5. (C) COMMENT: PM Meles and FM Seyoum are acutely aware of

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the need for the TFG to reach out broadly to all Somali
stakeholders, and PM Meles has explicitly appealed to
President Yusuf not to prosecute or impeach Speaker Shariff.
Meles and Seyoum assess, however, that the Speaker as well as
TFG PM Ghedi suffer from a weakening political base that
threatens to marginalize them further, and that neither plays
a significant political role in the TFG. Meles indicated
that the TFG did not always follow Ethiopian advice. He also
indicated that clan representatives in the TFG could be
replaced over time, but that it was up to the clans -- in a
bottom-up political reconciliation process -- to do so in
"the Somali way." END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO