ETHIOPIA: POSITIVE MESSAGE ON THE EEBC PROCESS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001510

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: POSITIVE MESSAGE ON THE EEBC PROCESS,
BUT FEARS OF RENEWED CONFLICT

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 1275

B. ADDIS ABABA 908

C. ADDIS ABABA 895

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Prime Minister Meles and other senior
officials expressed their deep concern to the Ambassador over
the November 30 deadline set by the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary
Commission (EEBC) for final demarcation of the border by
"coordinates." The GOE wants to avoid anther border war with
Eritrea, but raised fears that if the international
community, especially the European Union, uses the EEBC's
November 30 demarcation deadline to pressure the parties to
act, it may precipitate renewed conflict. GOE officials urge
caution in addressing the November 30 deadline, a similar
message noted during recent briefings for the diplomatic
corps (septel) by acting Special Representative of the UN
Secretary-General for Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE SRSG)

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Ambassador Azouz Ennifar. The Ambassador urged the GOE not
to drop out of the EEBC process. The GOE leadership does
plan to send a positive letter to UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon
reiterating the GOE's acceptance of the EEBC decision as
final and binding as well as commitment to work with the
Witnesses to the 2000 Algiers Agreement on the demarcation
process. END SUMMARY.

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NOVEMBER 30 DEADLINE: A CRISIS IN WAITING
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2. (S/NF) Over the past two weeks, Prime Minister Meles,
Foreign Minister Seyoum, State Minister for Foreign Affairs
Tekeda, MFA Counselor for Legal Affairs Menelik Alemu and
acting UNMEE SRSG Ambassador Ennifar discussed with
Ambassador their concerns about the EEBC decision to finalize
the demarcation of the border by "coordinates." The GOE and
UNMEE note the EEBC decision contradicts the EEBC
Commissioners, guidance to the parties for physical
demarcation, and agreements by the parties on final placement
of the demarcation pillars. The abrupt change from
"physical" demarcation to demarcation by "coordinates" may
reflect frustration by the EEBC, but it could precipitate
renewed conflict, according to Tekeda and Menelik. Menelik,
who served as one of the Ethiopian representatives to the
2006 EEBC meetings in London, noted Eritrea,s rejection of
the EEBC's November 30 deadline declaration. Menelik stated
emphatically that if the international community pressed the
parties to abide by this decision and immediately act to
demarcate the border, this could potentially lead to renewed
conflict.


3. (S/NF) GOE officials echoed to the Ambassador a common
theme that the European Union/European Commission in
particular is hostile to Ethiopia, as demonstrated by their
warm reception of Eritrean President Isaias and unconditioned
grant to Eritrea, despite Eritrea,s arms shipments to
extremists in Somalia and Sudanese rebels. Some GOE
officials privately expressed to the Ambassador whether
renewed openness to Eritrea by the Europeans was an effort to
engage Isaias or counter U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa.

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HOW TO APPROACH THE NOVEMBER 30 DEADLINE
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4. (S/NF) GOE senior officials recommended caution when
addressing the November 30 deadline. While Tekeda and
Menelik rejected the EEBC's decision as dangerous, open
expression of such sentiments could raise bitter public
debate. Menelik, in particular, urged quiet diplomacy. He
related that during Ethiopia's participation in the EEBC
talks in London, his own colleagues focused criticism on him
for Ethiopia's decision to re-enter the EEBC talks. The
Ambassador urged GOE officials not/not to drop out of the
EEBC process but to remain committed to a peaceful
demarcation of the border. Further public comments on the
November 30 deadline may not be helpful and may only raise
heated and unhelpful debates. Ambassador Ennifar in May 10
and May 17 briefings to the diplomatic corps on the situation

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along the border (septel) echoed the same message of caution.

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SENDING A POSITIVE MESSAGE
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5. (S/NF) The GOE plans to send a letter to UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon reiterating Ethiopia's position

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of accepting the EEBC decision as final and binding and, more
important, the GOE's continued commitment to work with the
Witnesses to the Algiers Agreement of December 12, 2000
(i.e., Algeria, the AU, EU, US, and UN) on the demarcation
process. In discussions with the Ambassador, GOE officials
note that the following additional elements may be included
in a letter to the UN Secretary-General:

(a) Reaffirm plan to submit a security plan, reminding the UN
that such plans depend on unhindered UNMEE operations;

(b) Reaffirm Ethiopian commitment to pay any and all arrears
to the EEBC;

(c) Reaffirm support for and importance of the Witnesses,
noting the February 22, 2006 meeting of the Witnesses in New
York;

(d) Reaffirm support for the efforts of the Witnesses on the
importance of direct Eritrea-Ethiopia bilateral discussions
to resolve the consequences of the demarcation process
(divided towns and villages and potential refugee flows) and
to normalize relations;

(e) Remind the UN that Ethiopia has not dropped out of the
EEBC meetings;

(f) Remind the UN that Ethiopia allowed the opening (in Addis
Ababa) of the UN office for the demarcation surveyors;

(g) Remind the UN that Ethiopia abides by UNSCR 1640, and
that the focus of the resolution was on Eritrean actions;

(h) Call on Eritrea to renounce violence;

(i) Call on Eritrea to support and work with the Witnesses;

(j) Call on Eritrea to abide by UNSCR 1640.


6. (S/NF) COMMENT. We firmly believe that the potential for
war will increase significantly if the Witnesses are not
clearly united on a common position in addressing the
November 30 EEBC deadline. Efforts to actively force the
parties to demarcate without addressing the consequences of
demarcation, would signal a departure from the commitment
made by the Witnesses last year to promote peaceful
demarcation as well as normalization of relations between
Eritrea and Ethiopia. This could lead the parties to drop
out of the EEBC process and increase the possibility of
renewed conflict. Post stresses caution, impressing on the
parties not to drop out of demarcation process and calling on
the parties to reaffirm their commitment to the peaceful
demarcation of the border. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO