Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA1349
2007-05-03 08:22:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

SOMALIA: ETHIOPIA POSITIVE ON JOINT U.S.-ETHIOPIA

Tags:  PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET 
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VZCZCXRO4164
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #1349/01 1230822
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 030822Z MAY 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5929
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001349 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ETHIOPIA POSITIVE ON JOINT U.S.-ETHIOPIA
APPROACH TO TFG

REF: A. NAIROBI 1867 (NOTAL)

B. MAY 1 GAREY-YAMAMOTO EMAIL

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001349

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ETHIOPIA POSITIVE ON JOINT U.S.-ETHIOPIA
APPROACH TO TFG

REF: A. NAIROBI 1867 (NOTAL)

B. MAY 1 GAREY-YAMAMOTO EMAIL

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Ethiopia State Minister of Foreign
Affairs Takeda noted to Ambassador May 2 that Ethiopia is
positive on joint approaches with the U.S. to Somalia's
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) on common messages to
promote inter-clan dialogue. The approaches must be quiet,
behind-the-scenes efforts. Takeda noted that the security
situation is stable enough now to push the TFG on a
transparent and open national reconciliation conference. But
time is short, and if quick action is not taken now, an
opportunity may be lost. International community support,
especially funding, for the conference is critical. Takeda
stated that the conference, and not Ethiopia or others, will
need to work on selecting new government ministers and also a
new Prime Minister for Somalia, if the clans support such a
move. Takeda concluded that Ethiopia welcomes close
discussion on any potential joint demarche on Somalia, but
emphasized again that time is short. Finally, Takeda thanked
the U.S. for its support for the TFG but expressed
disappointment about one section of a proposed United Nations
PRST that was critical of the indiscriminate shelling of
populated areas in Mogadishu, which Ethiopia took as a
criticism of Ethiopia. END SUMMARY.

--------------
JOINT APPROACH IS FINE: LET'S DISCUSS
--------------


2. (S/NF) Ambassador met privately with State (deputy)
Minister of Foreign Affairs Takeda Alemu May 2 to discuss
ideas raised by Embassy Nairobi (ref A). Ambassador will
meet Foreign Minister Seyoum on May 3 for further discussions
on Somalia. Takeda and the Foreign Minister have been the
point people on Somalia, pressuring TFG President Yusuf to
reach out to other clans, and arranging Ethiopian meetings
with various Somali clan elders. In response to Ambassador's

suggestion on harmonizing common U.S.-Ethiopian messages and
demarches to the TFG and to other Somali actors/clans, on the
need for inter-clan dialogue and outreach on a wide range of
ideas such as power-sharing, Takeda replied positively. He
noted, however, that any approach should be quiet, and not an
open and public display of pressure on President Yusuf and
the TFG. A behind-the-scenes approach will prove more
effective, given Yusuf,s sensitivity and stubborn resistance
to public pressure, Takeda said.


3. (S/NF) Takeda reiterated the high cost of military
operations in Somalia, and the sacrifices made by Ethiopian
troops to neutralize extremists and to support stability in
Somalia through national reconciliation. While Ethiopia
cannot stay indefinitely, it wants to see positive results
and assurances that Somalia is headed in the right direction
towards peace and stability. Towards this end, Takeda said
Ethiopia looked forward to discussions with the U.S. on the
type of common approach to the TFG and other clans. Takeda
added that discussions should center on the message to be
delivered, the benefit or "carrots" to the TFG for complying
with requests, and on sequence of actions that need to be
taken (national reconciliation conference, followed by
cabinet reshuffle, then change in some TFG leadership
positions). This would be an excellent follow-up to Foreign
Minister Seyoum,s April visit to Washington and his
discussions on Somalia with the Secretary and with Assistant
Secretary Frazer, Takeda noted. Ambassador replied that he

SIPDIS
would discuss this with Ambassador Ranneberger in Nairobi and
A/S Frazer,s staff in Washington. The Ambassador suggested
that Ambassador Ranneberger or A/S Frazer,s deputy from
Washington could come and visit Addis for discussions.

--------------
TIME IS SHORT; TIME FOR ACTION IS NOW
--------------


4. (S/NF) Takeda said that time was short and that action was
necessary now. The security situation was stable at this

ADDIS ABAB 00001349 002 OF 003


moment, with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and
TFG in control of Mogadishu and facing little resistance.
But this could not last long, unless there was a political
solution. The temporary security in Mogadishu provided the
TFG with a great opportunity to push forward on a transparent
and open National Reconciliation Conference. Only through a
comprehensive Conference that attracted all clans and
important clan elders, would there be a genuine inter-clan
dialogue that could lead to sustainable peace and stability
in Somalia. The Conference should be pushed forward to occur
now and not be delayed. The TFG had to ensure that all clans
would be represented, and that the "right" clan elders were
present at the Conference. Absences by clans, or lack of
senior representation, would doom the conference.


5. (S/NF) President Yusuf did not have much time and needed
to act now to prepare for a successful conference. He needed
to be active in not only a dialogue, but addressing the
grievances of the clans. In addition, Takeda said the
international community needed to provide full support and
financial assistance to the Conference. Without
international backing, the Conference could fail. Takeda
also noted that despite differences with the European Union
and the Arab League, their support for the TFG and the
Conference was equally important and necessary to ensure
stability in Somalia.

-------------- --------------
CHANGE IN PERSONALITIES: GET A NEW PRIME MINISTER?
-------------- --------------


6. (S/NF) Asked about changing personalities in the Somali
government, Takeda was extremely cautious, stating that the
Somali clans must determine the make-up of the government.
The Conference would be the ideal venue for the clan elders
to determine who the new government ministers should be. It
would be up to the clans to determine if/when Prime Minister
Ghedi was replaced, he said. But changes should take place
at the time of the Conference by the clans, and not before,
in any unilateral decision by President Yusuf and the TFG
government. Takeda echoed Prime Minister Meles, caution
that there were many problems in Somalia and that one needed
to avoid creating new ones. Replacing Ghedi, for instance,
could lead to unintended consequences, such as alienating a
clan or creating new fissures in clan relations. Let the
Conference and the clan elders make the decisions, Takeda
said.


7. (S/NF) Takeda noted that the Ethiopian Government is fed
up with Ghedi, because of his recent cabinet reshuffle, which
occurred without consulting the Ethiopian Government or other
clans. The Ethiopians were particularly upset with the
ouster of the Foreign Minister. But again, Takeda remarked
that replacement of Ghedi lay in the hands of the other clan
elders.

--------------
ETHIOPIA SENSITIVE TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS
--------------


8. (S/NF) Takeda said that approaches to the TFG should
always be private and quiet, so as to avoid resistance by
Yusuf. In this context, Takeda raised a proposed United
Nations PRST criticizing the indiscriminate shelling of
populated areas in Mogadishu. Takeda took this to mean a
criticism of Ethiopian actions in Mogadishu to stabilize the
situation. Prime Minister Meles noted the same theme to the
Ambassador on April 30, noting that Ethiopia actions have
helped to improve security in Mogadishu and stabilize the
situation, which would help promote a national reconciliation
conference.


9. (S/NF) COMMENT. Somali TFG Ambassador to Ethiopia and
PermRep to the African Union Abdilkarin Farah asked
Ambassador May 2 to press Yusuf on inter-clan dialogue.
Farah is receiving word that Yusuf will replace Farah, a
Hawiye clan member, with one of Yusuf,s friends in the
Darood clan group. Such a change, especially the selection
of yet another Darood in Yusuf,s government, will not sit

ADDIS ABAB 00001349 003 OF 003


well with the Ethiopians. Post will be in touch with Embassy
Nairobi and the Africa Bureau on follow-up on how to commonly
approach the TFG. Ethiopia appreciates U.S. support, and the
visit last week to Washington by the Foreign Minister has
strengthened Ethiopia's receptivity to U.S. views on Somalia
and for any joint discussion in approaching the TFG and
Somalia issues. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO