Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ADDISABABA1097
2007-04-12 12:31:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER MELES POSITIVE ON HAWIYE

Tags:  PREL PGOV MOPS ET ER SO 
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VZCZCXRO2620
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #1097/01 1021231
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 121231Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5569
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001097 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/12/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS ET ER SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER MELES POSITIVE ON HAWIYE
TALKS, BUT SEES POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RENEWED FIGHTING

REF: A. NAIROBI 1564 AND PREVIOUS

B. ADDIS 1079 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001097

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/12/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS ET ER SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER MELES POSITIVE ON HAWIYE
TALKS, BUT SEES POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RENEWED FIGHTING

REF: A. NAIROBI 1564 AND PREVIOUS

B. ADDIS 1079 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Ethiopia Prime Minister Meles called in
Ambassador for an April 10 private meeting to discuss
Somalia. He stated that Ethiopian military (ENDF) operations
in the Hawiye-controlled northern Mogadishu area against
extremist elements were costly but successful, resulting in
the Hawiye clan and the Habr-Gedir/Ayr sub-clan limiting
activities by extremists and forcing extremist leaders to
leave the area. Meles suspects that there is still potential
for renewed but limited fighting, to clear out any remaining
extremist elements and to stabilize the city prior to the May
national reconciliation conference. The Prime Minister gave
the impression that he was extremely frustrated with TFG
President Yusuf on reaching out to other clan groups, but
Meles underscored the importance of the TFG to the
reconciliation process. In order to engage the Ayr sub-clan,
the Prime Minister requested the U.S. and the international
community assure the Ayr that they are not the target, that
their property will not be confiscated, and that a solution
will be found to resolve any property dispute.


2. (S/NF) Finally, Meles understood that recent press
articles on "secret prisons" for foreign fighters and a New
York Times article on a North Korean shipment to Ethiopia
were not criticism of Ethiopia, but part of internal
political debates in the U.S. He also complained about
Eritrea's destabilizing activities in Somalia and called on
the U.S. to threaten President Isaias as a way to moderate
Eritrean destabilizing activities in Somalia and other
countries. END SUMMARY.

--------------
CEASEFIRE HOLDING, HAWIYE TALKS VERY POSITIVE:
--------------


3. (S/NF) The Prime Minister said that when the ENDF attacked

extremist elements in northern Mogadishu, the ENDF took
precautions to minimize civilian deaths. He said over 80
percent of the civilian population left the area, thus
minimizing what could have been a far worse civilian death
toll. The ENDF action to control the stadium was symbolic:
demonstrating to the clans and extremist elements the ENDF's
resolve to fight the extremists despite casualties.


4. (S/NF) As a result of the ENDF actions, Meles said the
level of violence has declined, with mortar strikes at the
airport and seaport eliminated and security enhanced.
Negotiations with the Hawiye elders have resumed and have led
to the clan acting to limit extremist elements. Meles said
the Hawiye forced extremist Council of Islamic Courts (CIC)
leader Aden Hashi Ayro out of Mogadishu. The talks are
positive, and Meles was confident that the Hawiye would be
able to marginalize and eliminate extremist elements.


5. (S/NF) Meles noted the potential for another round of
fighting, albeit smaller in scale. The fighting would be to
mop up areas of extremist remnants. Meles gave no timeframe
when renewed fighting could resume. But he stressed that the
talks with the Hawiye are key to determining if the clans are
able to limit extremist activities.

-------------- --------------
FRUSTRATION OVER THE TFG, AYR STILL KEY TO PEACE,
AND REQUESTS FOR THE U.S. TO ASSIST
-------------- --------------


6. (S/NF) Meles hinted at frustration with TFG President
Yusuf, due to Yusuf's lack of effort in reaching out to other
clans. But Meles underscored the importance of supporting
the TFG and Yusuf in preparation for the national
reconciliation conference in May. Meles stressed the
importance of the Ayr sub-clan to peace in Mogadishu, and
requested that the U.S. and international community help to
assure the Ayr that its property and land rights would be
respected, and that problems would be resolved through an

ADDIS ABAB 00001097 002 OF 002


agreed process. Meles also requested the same message be
passed to Abubakar Adane, a Hawiye/Abgaal sub-clan member and
CIC supporter, in order to reach out to all potential
"spoilers" for dialogue.

--------------
PRESS LEAKS AND ERITREA
--------------


7. (S/NF) Recent press articles in the U.S. on "secret
prisons" for foreign fighters and a North Korean shipment to
Ethiopia in violation of the U.N. sanctions regime were not
helpful. But the Prime Minister understood the articles to
be political infighting between the Democrats and Republicans
over Administration policy. Nevertheless, Meles was
particularly angry with Eritrea's destabilizing activities in
the region, especially arms shipments to Somalia. Meles
questioned why the U.S. was not more aggressive against
Eritrea, given its restrictions on U.S. Embassy personnel
working in Asmara, its arms shipments to Somalia, and support
for extremist elements. The Prime Minister urged U.S. and
international community support for cutting off funding to
Eritrea from the diaspora, and for threats to President
Isaias as means of curbing his destabilizing activities.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (S/NF) Somali Ambassador Farah told us separately that
the TFG was preparing for renewed though limited fighting to
clear out extremists from Mogadishu (ref B). It is unclear
if the TFG is reaching out to the Ayr, or trying to settle
old scores with a bitter clan rival. Ethiopia, while
reaching out to Ayr leaders, is fully prepared for renewed
fighting if the situation warrants. We cautioned Meles that
another round of fighting could lead to greater instability
and expansion of conflict to other clans. END COMMENT.
YAMAMOTO