GHANA AT 50: SECURITY CHALLENGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000314

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2017
TAGS: ASEC GH PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: GHANA AT 50: SECURITY CHALLENGES

REF: A. ACCRA 939

B. ACCRA 1855

Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 d and e.


1. (C) Summary: This is the third in a series of cables on
Ghana at 50. Ghana faces a host of security challenges.
Narcotics trafficking is probably the most nefarious, with
the potential to corrode democracy and stability over time.
While in many ways Ghana is relatively safe, especially
compared to some other countries in the region, violent
street crime and financial crime are on the rise and
contribute to Embassy Accra's status as a high crime threat
post. Crime and traditional conflicts are exacerbated by an
abundance of small arms. Extremist Islamic elements,
traditional conflicts, corruption and the combination of
porous borders with fragile neighbors make Ghana vulnerable
to potential terrorism. The military is disciplined and
apolitical (and is likely to remain so in the current
environment) but it could pose a significant potential threat
to Ghana's stability if the economy and/or political
conditions deteriorate. End Summary.

Narcotics
--------------


2. (C) Ghana is increasingly becoming a transit point for
cocaine and heroin bound for Europe and the United States.
Narcotics scandals over the past year (one involving the
disappearance of 2 tons of cocaine) have implicated senior
police officials. The GOG does not have a handle on the
problem and President Kufuor admitted to us in discussions of
the narcotics problem that at times he does not know who to
trust in his national security apparatus. More worrisome,
recent GOG meetings suggest the government has decided
against seriously tackling the problem until after the 2008
election to avoid potential political embarrassment.

Crime
--------------


3. (SBU) Corruption, poverty and a lack of professionalism
in the police and judiciary have resulted in a rise in
violent crime and vigilante justice. As reported ref B, a
2005 UNDP study estimates there are 125,000 illicit guns in
Ghana, which contribute to violent crime. In addition, as
reported ref A, financial crime has increased significantly.
Our consular section has seen a major increase in cases of
Internet scams this year. Police statistics point to a 50
percent jump in advance fee fraud.

Conflict
--------------


4. (SBU) Every year, there are a number of chieftaincy and
traditional disputes in Ghana, many of which have political
overtones and some of which result in violence. The three
northern regions of Ghana in particular have a history of
ethnic and chieftaincy conflict, fueled by the easy
availability of small arms. In 2002, a chieftaincy dispute
in Northern Region resulted in the murder of the paramount
chief of Dagbon (Ya-Na) and 40 of his entourage, and the
imposition of a three-year State of Emergency in the region.
These kinds of conflict are unlikely to be regime threatening
but will continue to challenge Ghana's security apparatus.

Terrorism
--------------


5. (C) Ghana has never had a terrorist incident and the GOG
is very cooperative on counterterrorism issues. The majority
of Ghana's 15-20 percent Muslim population is moderate.
Nonetheless, there are extremist Islamic elements here.
Together with widespread corruption, porous borders,
narcotrafficking, and inadequately trained and equipped law
enforcement, this poses a potential terrorist threat that
bears watching.

The Military
--------------


6. (C) The Ghana Armed Forces are disciplined, apolitical
and currently appear committed to supporting civilian rule
and democracy. They understand that Ghanaians and the
international community are intolerant of military
adventurism. The military also benefits from participation
in UN peacekeeping missions (at any given time, 35% of the
armed forces are abroad on peacekeeping missions). This
participation effectively increases military compensation,
keeps them away from potential mischief making at home, and

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exposes them to the deleterious effects of conflict first
hand.


7. (C) Nonetheless, many Ghanaians still fear a military
coup, and the GOG is perpetually paranoid about the
possibility. Although we believe there is currently a low
probability of military intervention, it remains a
significant potential threat to Ghana's stability, especially
if led by a charismatic leader in the face of worsening
economic problems and/or an increased public perception of a
weak/corrupt civilian government.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Ghana does not have the kinds of strong ethnic
and regional tensions that have generated conflict in other
countries in the region. The past year has brought
controversies -- petrol price increases, an energy crunch,
corruption and narcotics scandals, and NDC protests against a
controversial expatriate voting bill -- which have generated
significant media debate but no feeling of political crisis.
In many ways, Ghana is relatively safe, especially compared
to other countries in the neighborhood. Violent crime is
still manageable and the GOG generally respects the rule of
law.


9. (C) Continued stability is promising, but by no means
guaranteed. The security agencies lack capacity and are not
aggressively confronting some major looming problems, such as
financial crime and narcotics trafficking. These underlying
security challenges, not to mention political and economic
vulnerabilities (reported septels),require careful
monitoring to help ensure that this fragile African success
story stays on track.
BRIDGEWATER