THE NPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND ELECTION 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002587

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GH
SUBJECT: THE NPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND ELECTION 2008

REF: ACCRA 2477


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As the December 22 New Patriotic Party (NPP)
Convention moves closer, the debate has intensified, and rank and
file supporters appear more disillusioned by ostentatious campaigns
and exorbitant spending. Some party officials fear the NPP is
losing touch with its base and privately worry that the NDC, lead by
two time Presidential candidate, John Atta Mills, is quietly
drumming up support in NPP strongholds. No frontrunner has emerged
yet, but some insiders and pundits believe Kufuor is intervening to
support former Trade Minister Alan Kyerematen as the NPP nominee.
In turn, these efforts appear to be heightening divisions within the
NPP after eight years in power, and these divisions threaten to
carry over to the general election campaign in 2008. END SUMMARY.

Internal party Challenges, a Stormy Test for Democracy
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2. (SBU) Eighteen individuals from varying backgrounds and
ethnicities are seeking the NPP nomination to be the next President
of Ghana. As the December 22 Convention approaches, internal
battles within the NPP have increased and the party is struggling to
stay unified as it focuses on selecting one candidate for President
who all factions of the NPP can support.


3. (U) The 18 presidential aspirants were recently vetted by the
party and the final, official list of candidates was released on
November 30 (reftel). One candidate, former Deputy Interior
Minister Nkrabeah Effah-Dartey, was disqualified due to a 1981 court
martial.


4. (SBU) Following the vetting process, each of the 230 NPP
constituencies (corresponding to parliamentary constituencies) in
Ghana has named 10 delegates to vote at the Convention. This list
was released to the candidates on December 8, giving them time to
personally lobby those individuals. The regional breakdown of the
delegates is as follows: Ashanti 17%, Brong Ahafo 10%, Central 8%,
Eastern 12%, Greater Accra 12%, Northern 10%, Volta 10%, Western 11%
Upper East 6% and Upper West 4%. Ethnicity promises to be an
important part of the selection process.

Accusations all Around
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5. (SBU) Allegations of misconduct have been prominent during the
NPP nomination process, and corruption allegations will likely
continue to play a large part in the general election. For example,
former Finance Minister Yaw Osafo Maafo said in October that Alan
Kyerematen was involved in shady lending deals with government money
while in office. Kyerematen responded that he suspects, but cannot
prove, that Osafo Maafo benefited from under-the-table dealings with
the Chinese in multi-million dollar construction projects. Osafo
Maafo's supporters shot back and accused Kyerematen of diverting
Presidential Special Initiatives (PSI) funds and mismanaging the
project. Former FM Nana Akuffo Addo has also repeatedly attacked his
long time rival Kyerematen. The media, for its part, continues to
hype up the rivalries between different ethnic factions in the NPP.



6. (SBU) Questions have also been raised about the integrity of the
NPP selection process, as both Vice President Aliu Mahama and Alan
Kyerematen publicly protested the publication of personal details
from their party files by a newspaper. They insisted that those
details were submitted to the NPP's vetting committee only. In the
ensuing outcry, the Party's national headquarters denied any
wrongdoing, and declined to explain or investigate the matter.

Rallying the Troops in a Shifting Political Landscape:
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7. (SBU) As aspirants continue to canvass for delegates' votes,
rank and file party members seem to be growing disillusioned. Some
have publicly criticized the government's policies. Unemployment,
poverty, corruption, and the high cost of living, have led to this
disillusionment, including in NPP strongholds. Candidates have also
waged expensive campaigns, raising questions about the source of
funds. Some frustration appears to stem from the perceived gap
between the continued high levels of poverty among ordinary
Ghanaians and the high expectations for material prosperity created
by the NPP in 2000 and 2004.

NPP Privately Worries about a Loss Next Year
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8. (SBU) In recent weeks, some NPP activists have confided to us
that the threat of losing the 2008 election is real. They believe
that a malaise exists among party members, but do not seem to have a
plan to repair the party's divisions. Meanwhile, John Atta Mills of
the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) seems to be
gaining ground. Notably, he appears to have growing support in the

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Central Region - historically a strong region for the NPP. In an
internal NPP memo circulated last month, the party's regional
executive warned NPP national headquarters of "the positive gains
Mills' door-to-door campaign has made to the disadvantage of the
NPP." The memo said some NPP supporters may not participate in the
election and focus group discussions have revealed that many
supporters feel "government is ignoring ordinary voters."

Who Will Win?
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9. (SBU) Because of the number of aspirants, including a handful of
serious candidates, it is unclear who will win the NPP nomination on
December 22. As this is the first democratic succession for an
incumbent NPP, the struggle is replete with suspicion and intrigue.
The mistrust among the aspirants and their supporters has increased,
leading both pundits and party activists to question the party's
cohesiveness.


10. (SBU) While the NDC is unified around a candidate and is quietly
watching the NPP political infighting, it appears that the NPP is
tearing itself apart. Many pundits claim that Kufuor is using his
influence to push delegates to support his favored candidate, Alan
Kyerematen. As this occurs, the nomination is becoming antagonistic
and divisive. Kufuor's leadership style and policies have alienated
important elements of the party, and some delegates may vote against
Kyerematen to signal their displeasure at Kufuor's actions.


11. (SBU) To win the national election, the NPP must select a
candidate capable of attracting nationwide support, counter its
Ashanti/Akan tag, and persuade its disaffected supporters to vote.
Retaining core support in Ashanti, Eastern, Central and Western
regions and improving on 2004 electoral records in Greater Accra,
Northern and Volta regions are essential to retaining power. Party
officials understand this logic but it is still too early to tell
who they will select to challenge NDC aspirant John Atta Mills to
succeed Kufuor.

BROWN