OPPOSITION ACTIVIST COMMENTS ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ACCRA 002173

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL GH
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ACTIVIST COMMENTS ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: ACCRA 2096

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Sue K. Brown for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. SUMMARY/COMMENT: National Democratic Party (NDC) activist
Fiji Kwetey told PolChief during a October 5 meeting that his
party would likely select NDC parliamentary foreign affairs
spokesman John Mahama as its Vice Presidential candidate. He
indicated that NDC insiders view former Trade Minister Alan
Kyerematen as the favorite among New Patriotic Party (NPP)
candidates for President, but said Kyerematen's Ashanti
ethnic background would work against him in the general
election and would be exploited by the NDC. Finally, Kwetey
noted that a resurgent Convention People's Party (CPP) may be
an important factor in the election. Kwetey's remarks
regarding Jonn Mahama are consistent with other sources who
view the NDC's foreign affairs spokesman as the front-runner
for the NDC Vice Presidential slot. However, Kwetey's
comments also suggest that Ghana's main opposition party is
currently watching carefully and strategizing as the ruling
NPP agonizes over choosing a successor to President Kufuor as
party leader. END SUMMARY/COMMENT.


2. (C) PolChief spoke October 5 with opposition National
Democratic Party (NDC) activist and advisor to former
President Jerry Rawlings, Fiji Kwetey. Kwetey said that NDC
parliamentary foreign affairs spokesman John Mahama will
likely be the party's choice for Vice Presidential candidate
on the ticket with John Atta Mills (reftel). Kwetey also
noted that many in the NDC believe Mahama is the best choice
as a young, charismatic and "moderate" member of the party.
In addition, Mahama is a Northerner from the Gonja ethnic
group, which will help cement NDC support in a traditional
stronghold and add important diversity to the NDC ticket.


3. (C) Kwetey commented that NDC insiders view former Trade
Minister Alan Kyerematen as the likely New Patriotic Party
(NPP) choice for presidential candidate, although both Vice
President Aliu Mahama and Nana Akufo-Addo are also strong
candidates. Among the three, said Kwetey, the NDC prefers
Kyerematen as an opponent. Kyerematen is a member of the
Ashanti ethnic group - the same group as President Kufuor -
and Kwetey said many Ghanaians will resent it if the NPP
chooses a second consecutive candidate from the Ashanti
ethnic group. In addition, Kwetey said some Ghanaians,
particularly Northerners and Muslims, will feel that Vice
President Mahama deserves the nomination and is being treated
disrespectfully by his party after serving loyally as
Kufuor's deputy. Kwetey said the NDC would exploit these
negative sentiments to generate support for its own candidate.


4. (C) Concerning Vice President Mahama's Muslim faith,
Kwetey said religion is an important factor in Ghanaian
politics and that many Christian Ghanaians would never vote
for a Muslim presidential candidate. While most Ghanaians
would not admit this openly, Kwetey said a Muslim could not
be elected President of Ghana.


5. (C) Among the NPP candidates, Kwetey said NDC insiders
view former Foreign Minister Nana Akufo-Addo as the most
formidable potential opponent in the general election. He
noted that Akufo-Addo is well-funded, popular, charismatic,
and has great appeal to younger voters. In addition,
Akufo-Addo comes from the Akyem ethnic group in the Eastern
Region, meaning that he lacks the ethnic baggage that
Kyerematen carries as an Ashanti.


6. (C) Kwetey also indicated that his party sees increasing
disenchantment among Ghanaian voters toward the ruling party.
He noted that in the Ashanti region, an NPP stronghold,
there is growing frustration with the central government.
While the NDC has not typically polled well in that region,
gaining 18% of the vote in 2000 and 22% in 2004, the NDC has
set a target of 30% in Ashanti for the 2008 election.


7. (C) Finally, Kwetey conceded that the Convention People's
Party (CPP) may have a stronger than usual showing in 2008
and that this could have a significant effect on the election
results (NOTE: This is due to the closeness of the 2004 and
2000 elections, and the expectation that 2008 will be close
as well. END NOTE). Among the CPP candidates, Kwetey
dismissed the chances of pathologist Paakwasi Nduom, noting
that many in the CPP view Nduom as a "traitor" for having
served as a minister in Kufuor's government. However, Kwetey
said Dr. Ageyman Badu Akorsa would be a more formidable
candidate and raise the fortunes of the CPP. Nevertheless,
Kwetey stressed that the NDC had largely taken over the CPP's
role as Ghana's "Nkrumaist" political party, and that there
has been weak support for the CPP in recent elections.
BROWN