GHANA'S OPPOSITION NDC ON ELECTION 2008 AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 001247

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2017
TAGS: GH MOPS PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: GHANA'S OPPOSITION NDC ON ELECTION 2008 AND
POSSIBLE U.S. MILITARY BASES

REF: ACCRA 1205

ACCRA 00001247 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e).


1. (C) Summary: Poloffs recently met separately with four
leaders from the main opposition National Democratic Congress
(NDC) party. They expressed familiar concerns about
implementation of a bill allowing expatriate Ghanaians to
vote and were worried about the example set by the recent
flawed Nigerian election. The party's main challenges
heading toward the 2008 election are its poor finances and
"managing" former President Rawlings, they agreed. They
depicted the NDC as largely supportive of its presidential
candidate John Atta Mills, who is reportedly in good health
and traveling extensively on the campaign trail. Several of
the NDC contacts assured us that media stories opposing the
idea of a U.S. military base in Ghana reflect concerns about
sovereignty, not anti-Americanism. End summary.

The ROPA Bill and the Nigerian Election
--------------


2. (C) Special Assistant to John Atta Mills Ludwig Hlodze
told PolChief the main opposition National Democratic
Congress (NDC) is very concerned about efforts by the ruling
New Patriotic Party (NPP) to implement the Representation of
the People Amendment (ROPA) bill, which would give Ghanaian
citizens resident overseas the right to vote in Ghanaian
elections. The NDC is convinced the NPP will use this bill
to try to rig votes. Both he and NDC Deputy General
Secretary Baba Jamal told PolChief that the Nigerian election

SIPDIS
raised concerns in the NDC that similar election fraud could
happen in Ghana. Hlodze also saw the potential for the ROPA
bill to cause regional conflict, if the large number of
Ghanaians in Togo, Burkina Faso and Cote d'Ivoire try to vote
under the bill. Most of these are without identification and
the ensuing disputes about who can and cannot vote could
cause legal battles and possible unrest in Ghana and in
neighboring states, according to Hlodze.

Discontent in the Land
--------------


3. (C) Hlodze and Jamal's views on problems in Ghana
tracked with those expressed in our recent meetings with NDC
Youth Chairman Koffi Adams and prominent NDC Member of
Parliament Haruna Iddrisu. All four painted a picture of
growing frustration in the country. Energy shortages are
having a serious economic impact, they said. Hlodze
highlighted narcotics trafficking concerns, saying the GOG is
dragging its feet and arresting small players while ignoring
te larger traffickers. The NDC remains frustrated ith
corruption and poor education performance, h added, also
criticizing the GOG's acceptance of he flawed Nigerian
elections and its uted response concerning violence against
the opposition in Zimbabwe.


4. (C) Our NDC contacts were confident their party could
win the 2008 election but admitted several handicaps. They
depicted the media in Ghana as largely bought off by the GOG
and NPP, which allegedly have contributed money to have the
NDC depicted in a negative light. All agreed that the NDC
has serious financial challenges and shared concerns that the
NPP could use its greater financial resources to win votes
with money and projects. They were sure that the NPP uses
money to buy off confidantes and trouble makers within the
NDC. Nevertheless, they acknowledged that some businessmen
were contributing discreetly to NDC coffers and said that
despite the media's slant, some stories favorable to the NDC
had appeared in back pages.


5. (C) The NDC leaders were divided on whether former
President J.J. Rawlings was a net liability for the party,
but admitted that the NDC was stuck with "managing" him as
well as possible. Jamal stressed that this is perhaps the
NDC's biggest challenge, adding that no one can effectively
manage the former President, who remains a larger-than-life
icon within the party. Hlodze was firm that Professor Mills
is "his own man"; Jamal agreed but opined that Mills will
have difficulty managing Rawlings even if he wins the
presidency. Jamal believes the NDC cannot win without
Rawlings, who he said remains very popular in rural areas,
but he conceded that the former President's erratic,
outspoken ways have alienated many in the party and continue
to scare away many potential voters for the NDC.

Mills as Candidate
--------------

ACCRA 00001247 002.2 OF 002




6. (C) Jamal told PolChief there is still some friction
within the party over Mills' candidacy, although he said this
is diminishing. He thought the NDC had no choice but to get
behind Mills because of Mills' popularity in the country.
Jamal was clear that Rawlings does not like Mills. However,
Jamal believes Rawlings feels he has to back Mills because he
brought Mills into politics during the 1990s. During a
recent tour and breakfast hosted by the Ambassador at the New
Embassy Compound, Rawlings made casual comments indicating
his support for Mills (though the rock-star enthusiasm
Rawlings generated from the Ghanaian workers on site were a
vivid display of his charisma and continued political drawing
power).


7. (C) All our NDC contacts claimed Mills is in good
health. Hlodze said Mills was controlling his weight under
doctor's orders. Jamal confided that Mills had some kind of
throat cancer and said he was on the mend, although not yet
fully recovered. In Ghanaian culture, a politician cannot
admit to illness, so we should not expect Mills to be
forthcoming on this, Jamal added. However, Mills is actively
campaigning and should have no trouble running the course of
the campaign, Jamal said, while admitting that Mills' voice
sometimes gets hoarse on election tours. Iddrisu had
recently returned from a campaign swing with Mills in Ghana's
three northern provinces, where he said Mills performed well
and received enthusiastic receptions.

On Establishing a U.S. Military Base in Ghana
--------------


8. (C) NDC-leaning newspapers have repeatedly published
stories about alleged U.S. plans to establish a military base
in Ghana. Iddrisu and Addams explained to Poloff that this
reflects a concern that a U.S. base could compromise Ghana's
perceived neutrality and leadership within the African Union
and the Non-Aligned Movement. We should interpret the
stories in that light, they said, rather than as a sign of
anti-Americanism.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The NDC's concerns are familiar, although our
contacts are becoming more candid about the need to "manage"
Rawlings. In a recent meeting with PolChief, Electoral
Commission Deputy Chairman Sarfo-Kantanka also highlighted
managing Rawlings, as well as countering the NDC's
Rawlings-era legacy as the party's biggest challenges in 2008
(reftel). An April 2007 Economist Intelligence Unit report
underscored concerns about Mills' health as a potentially
serious handicap for the NDC in the upcoming election. For
the moment, this issue has faded somewhat among political
pundits here, but if Mills shows more visible signs of poor
health in the coming year, this will likely be an important
factor in the election.


10. (C) Iddrisu's and Addams' take on the military base
issue makes sense. Ghanaians are generally very pro-American
and NDC officials are somewhat less anti-USG than in the
past, although some resent our strong relationship with the
GOG and wish we were more critical of it. During the recent
NEC tour, Rawlings and his entourage were enthusiastic about
our new facility and warm toward the Ambassador. Sensitivity
about a potential U.S. military presence in Ghana (AFRICOM or
otherwise) cannot be viewed as an NDC issue. The smaller
Nkrumahist Convention People's Party (CPP) has been the most
vocal critic on this issue, tapping into a more broadly held
concern about sovereignty, international optics and political
repercussions (even within the GOG).





BRIDGEWATER