GHANA ON NIGERIA'S ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 001029

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: GH NI PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: GHANA ON NIGERIA'S ELECTION

REF: ACCRA 934

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PAMELA E. BRIDGEWATER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND
(d).


1. (C) Summary: The GOG has largely remained quiet about the
recent elections in Nigeria. President Kufuor urged &extreme
restraint8 at one point but has said little else publicly.
Most Ghanaian contacts want to accept the outcome and move
on, hoping that elections will improve next time. Close
personal ties between Presidents Kufuor and Obasanjo and
strong bilateral economic ties help explain the official
Ghanaian response, but perhaps more important are concerns
about the impact on Ghana of potential instability in
Nigeria. While Ghanaian contacts are not overly worried
about a flood of Nigerian refugees at the moment, every
Ghanaian we spoke to expressed fears that instability in
Nigeria has the potential to create a serious refugee problem
for Ghana which would strain infrastructure and government
services. End summary.


2. (C) Ghana,s relations with other West African countries
is guided by &good neighborliness.8 In practice this means
cooperation and support for stability while at times quietly
encouraging democratic change. This policy has clearly
guided the GOG's response to the recent Nigerian elections.
President Kufuor limited his public remarks to initial calls
for &extreme restraint8 and news coverage was similarly
restrained (reftel).

CLOSE PERSONAL TIES
--------------


3. (C) Ghana and Nigeria have had ups and downs in their
relations, but have been very close in the past seven years.
This close relationship began when President Olusegun
Obasanjo assisted President Kufuor financially in the 2000
election campaign. Kufuor,s gratitude was evident at his
inauguration in 2000, when he made Obasanjo the guest of
honor. More recently, Obasanjo was the guest of honor at
Ghana,s Golden Jubilee celebration in March 2007. During the
Jubilee events, Kufuor also bestowed Ghana,s highest award
on Obasanjo and renamed a major thoroughfare after him.


4. (C) Shortly after Kufuor,s 2001 inauguration, he visited
Nigeria. At this point, Ghana,s cash reserves were
perilously low and Obasanjo stepped in to help relieve this
burden. Since then, Nigeria has assisted Ghana in numerous
tangible ways. Two recent examples include Nigeria,s
agreement to assume Ghana,s responsibilities for providing
power to Togo and Benin, and its offer to sell energy and
oil to Ghana at less than market prices. In a recent meeting
with poloff, Nigerian DCM in Ghana Abdul Salisu highlighted
the personal ties between the two presidents, who he said
refer to each other as &brothers.8 He said Nigeria,s
president-elect plans to visit Ghana in May.


5. (C) Two leading experts on Ghana and Nigeria told poloff
that these close personal ties are a primary reason Ghana has
accepted Nigeria's election outcome. Dr. V. Antwi Danso, a
Political Science professor at the University of Legon, said
that Kufuor does not want to embarrass Obasanjo by
criticizing the elections. Professor Kwame Boafo Arthur, also
of the University of Legon, pointed to Obasanjo,s long
financial support of Kufuor and the NPP as a leading reason
for Kufuor,s decision not to be critical of the elections.

REGIONAL STABILITY PARAMOUNT
--------------


6. (C) Concerns for regional stability also help explain
Ghana,s stance. As many here like to say, &when Nigeria
sneezes, Ghana catches a cold.8 Ghanaians have memories of
the large numbers of Nigerians who came to Ghana in the 1960s
(many of whom were later expelled). Given their historical,
linguistic and ethnic ties, Ghanaians expect they would once
again be a major destination for any potential flood of
Nigerian refugees. According to C. Nii Amon Cortey,
Supervising Director of the African Union and Africa at the
Foreign Ministry, instability in Nigeria could cause a
possible flood of refugees that would overwhelm
infrastructure and social services. Other Ghanaian contacts
have suggested this could even threaten the stability of the
GOG if it were large-scale. Despite these concerns, the Chair
of the Ghana Refugee Board Emmanuel Owusu told Poloff that he
is not very worried about a possible influx of Nigerians at
the moment, acknowledging that this could change if there is
an upsurge of violence.

STRONG ECONOMIC TIES
--------------


7. (C) Economic ties are also strong between the two

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countries. Nigeria is Ghana,s leading trading partner. In
2005, Ghana's imports from Nigeria totaled nearly $900
million, 80 percent of which was oil. Ghana exported nearly
$34 million in products to Nigerian markets in 2005, mainly
cocoa and textiles. Since 2005, several Nigerian banks have
opened and are prospering in Ghana. Global Telecom of Nigeria
is pursuing investments locally. The Nigerian DCM expects
these economic ties to grow, especially with the West Africa
Gas Pipeline, which will pump Nigerian natural gas to the
region starting in late 2007. Any unrest in the
"powerhouse8 of the region, as Deputy Foreign Minister
Akwasi Osei-Adjei called Nigeria, could seriously disrupt
Ghana,s economy.

PDP WOULD HAVE WON ANYWAY
--------------


8. (C) The Nigerian opposition's failure to openly challenge
the election right away reportedly reinforced Ghana,s
stance. Ben Ephson, the Managing Editor of the Daily Graphic
newspaper, is convinced that if the opposition had been more
vocal early on, Kufuor would have likely taken a more
critical stance. Professor Danso had similar views, but
opined that the PDP would have won anyway, even without the
fraud.

&LET'S MOVE ON8
--------------


9. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Akwasi Osei-Adjei recently
told Ambassador that all sides must &move on,8 especially
given the complexity of holding elections in Nigeria.
Osei-Adjei said calling for new elections and/or nullifying
the previous election returns could invite trouble. He added
that he thinks President Kufuor has been in touch with the
President-elect. Professor Danso echoed these concerns,
saying it was too much to expect a smooth election in
Nigeria, especially given its history of corruption and
military rule. He pointed out that Ghana's first election in
1992 was seriously flawed and that, like Ghana, Nigeria's
elections should improve over time.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Ghana clearly has a special relationship with Nigeria
and has a great deal at stake in Nigerian stability. It is
not surprising that Kufuor was not more openly critical of
the election process. As indicated reftel, Kufuor's call for
"extreme restraint" was an uncharacteristically proactive
initial public position. While he genuinely supports
democracy and has been willing to intervene in some regional
problems, he is generally cautious by nature and prefers
wielding influence behind the scenes. Like many Ghanaians,
he may also fear that the GOG would have difficulty dealing
with the potential economic and refugee implications of an
unstable Nigeria.

BRIDGEWATER