YAR'ADUA VIEWED AS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT, LEFT-LEANING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000945

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
LABOR FOR SUDHA HALEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA VIEWED AS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT, LEFT-LEANING


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Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for reasons 1.4. (
b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Professor Akin Mabogunje (strictly protect)
told Poloff and Econoff that President Obasanjo chose
Yar'adua as the PDP candidate and successor as president
because of Yar'adua's ability to remain outside the political
establishment. Mabogunje views Yar'adua as in the unique
position to bring about reform in the north from within and
pointed to his record as Governor. Likewise, labor leader
John Olanrewaju views Yar'adua as progressive and is hopeful
that the new administration will mean a strong focus on
workers' rights. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Poloff and Econoff met with Professor Akin Mabogunje,
a personal friend of President Obasanjo, member of the
Technical Board of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria and
Chair of the Lagos Urban Development committee formed by
Obasanjo, on May 8. Mabogunje, a PDP-supporter and backer of
Obasanjo's reforms, characterized President-elect Yar'adua as
left-leaning and not afraid to work outside the
establishment. As a southern, Christian Yoruba from Ibadan,
Mabogunje said the choice for Yar'adua over the other
northern presidential candidates was clear. He conceded that
the new president had to come from the north, recognizing the
north-south power swap that was worked out when Obasanjo came
to power.

3. (C) Mabogunje said Obasanjo picked Yar'adua as his
replacement for the PDP because of Yar'adua's ability to
remain outside the establishment. Mabogunje felt Yar'adua
was uniquely poised to be able to reform the north by his
position as a leader. He pointed to Yar'adua's left-leaning
party affiliation in his youth and the fact that he had not
joined the ruling party despite his father and late brother's
affiliation. Obasanjo chose Yar'adua, and southerners like
Mabogunje supported him, because Yar'adua's commitment to
education and fighting corruption could actually bring about
needed change in the north. No southerner, he contended
could have that impact. Mabogunje said Obasanjo had been
left with a choice of Yar'adua or General Ibrahim Babangida
as the PDP candidate, but that Babangida was too tarnished.
Babangida's failure to take responsibility publicly and offer
a reason for refusing to hand over power to the elected
civilian Chief Moshood Abiola in 1993 would not be easily
forgiven and Mabogunje believed Nigerians would never have
elected him.


4. (C) Mabogunje described Vice President-elect Goodluck
Jonathan as worthy of his name "goodluck." Jonathan, he
noted, was never elected Governor, but only ended up in the
position after the Governor Diepriye Alamieyeseigha was
impeached in December 2005. Mabogunje reiterated what we
have heard before, that Jonathan is a political unknown.
Mabogunje did not feel Jonathan has the political clout to be
a force for change in the Delta.


5. (C) Poloff met with John Olanrewaju, Director and Chief
Executive of the Michael Imoudu National Institute for Labor
Studies (MINILS) and a well-connected leader in the labor
movement, on May 10. Olanrewaju has clear PDP allegiances,
with PDP Governor of Kwara State (where MINILS is located)
donating considerable resources to the Institute, including
for the recent construction of a dormitory. Olanrewaju was
hopeful that the Yar'adua administration would strongly
support labor issues. He pointed to Yar'adua's leftist (even
socialist) leanings in his youth and his focus on education,
noting that teachers' salaries were consistently paid in
Yar'adua's Katsina state. Olanrewaju was confident that the
Permanent Secretary for Labor Relations at the Ministry of
Employment, Labor and Productivity, Dr. Timiebi
Koripamo-Agary, would remain with the incoming
administration. He was optimistic that the new Labor
Minister would be a strong supporter of workers' rights.


6. (C) COMMENT. Both Mabogunje and Olanrewaju have their own
reasons for supporting a continued PDP dominance of the
political arena and so their comments must be taken within
that context. However, both pointed to Yar'adua's
leftist-leaning in his youth and his ability to bring about

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change as Katsina Governor and expected that to carry over
into his presidency. Prof. Mabogunje's theory that Obasanjo
chose Yar'adua exactly for his status as outside the
establishment and his potential ability to reform the north
gives another insight on top of the oft-heard assertion that
Yar'adua is simply a weak figurehead whom Obasanjo can
manipulate from afar. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL