KWARA GOVERNOR DEFENDS ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000865

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: KWARA GOVERNOR DEFENDS ELECTIONS

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with the re-elected PDP
Governor of Kwara state Bukola Saraki and stressed that the
USG was concerned about the conduct of the elections,
violence was not acceptable, and the tribunals were critical
to the final phase of the electoral process. Saraki defended
the outcome of the recently concluded elections, saying that
the "PDP would have won most of the elections anyway" and
absolved the national leadership of the party from any blame
for the "problems." He gave his assessment of the outcomes
and said that his PDP party would have to avoid "interfering
in the tribunal process." Saraki then promoted a meeting
between Governor Yar'Adua and President Bush "so that the
opposition did not get the wrong message." Saraki defended
the PDP party line and pushed the importance of a Washington
visit in an enthusiastic, if not belligerent, manner. In the
end, though, his exhortations suggested desperation by the
ruling PDP to gain the endorsement of the USG to bolster its
control within Nigeria. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ambassador called on the re-elected PDP Governor of
Kwara state Bukola Saraki to stress the USG position on the
elections. Pointing to the serious flaws in the process, the
Ambassador noted that the tribunals had become key to
enhancing the credibility of the of the process. The
Ambassador stressed that violence is unacceptable and that
the USG is prepared to work with the next government to
improve the process. The Ambassador left a copy of the
statement with Saraki, who said he had seen it previously.


3. (C) Saraki admitted that the recently concluded Nigerian
elections had "some lapses," but defended the outcome, saying
that the "PDP would have won most of the elections anyway."
He explained that the blame for the lapses rested with the
Independent National Elections Commission (INEC) and with the
grassroots PDP supporters. On INEC, he said that most of the
rigging or logistical problems should be blamed on INEC's ad
hoc staff. "They were recruited late and had little
training," he said, but the INEC Chair had done "everything
possible" to make the elections work. Similarly, Saraki
blamed the outlandish results on the "enthusiasm and
exuberance" that the PDP attracted at the local level. He
said the PDP national organization had been "confident of
victory" but that locally, "rigging tends to take on its own
life." He stated that, in his opinion, "the April 14
elections saw Nigeria's highest voter turnout in its
history." Saraki claimed that "there are not 60 million
valid voters registered," so turnout should be estimated
against the "40 million real voters on the list."


4. (C) Saraki began his assessment of the elections by
commenting that "we cannot defend the undefendable." He said
that the roles the PDP played in Lagos and Kano were "clearly
catastrophic." But, he postulated, while observers believe
that the party leadership is involved, in reality it is the
"local party supporters" acting on their "enthusiasm and
exuberance." This is inevitable, he said, in an election
where the "enthusiasm is so high." Later he expanded his
list of problems, saying that "results in the South South
region are indefensible." At another point, he claimed that
the results in only "five states are questionable;" still
later he said that results in "three states should be
changed." Saraki agreed that it was important for the PDP to
avoid "interfering in the tribunal process," and said the USG
should not be concerned about the judiciary's independence.
Still, judicial inefficiency could create a problem, he
stated.


5. (C) Saraki then turned to the proposed visit of Yar'Adua
to Washington and said that it was important for President
Bush to receive him, "so the opposition does not get the
wrong message about your support." He said that we (the USG
and the PDP) did not have time on our side as the swearing in
would take place in three weeks and the G-8 summit would take
place two weeks later, reemphasizing that it was important
for the USG to facilitate a meeting as soon as possible. The
opposition does not matter, he claimed, because in "two weeks
everything will be calm anyway." He stressed that the USG
needed to work with the PDP and "not encourage the
opposition" because "nothing can be done anyway." "We just

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need to move on," he stressed. Besides, he continued, "look
at the three candidates. Yar'Adua is the only good democrat
and he is the best that we have." "He is the President and
he will be sworn in. You should get on board and move
forward with us," he concluded.


6. (C) COMMENT: Saraki is posing as a Yar'Adua insider,
and, indeed, we have evidence that the Governor is turning to
him for advice. Saraki defended the PDP party line without
wavering. He also stressed the importance of a Washington
visit in an enthusiastic, if not belligerent, manner. He was
clearly worried that the opposition might think they could
challenge the results of the elections and gain international
support and stressed the importance of the PDP, in
partnership with the USG, moving ahead with their plans. In
the end, though, his exhortations suggest the level of
desperation within the ruling PDP to gain the endorsement of
the USG is rising as they seek to bolster their control of
the aftermath of the April events.
CAMPBELL