MARWA ON ELECTIONS, AIRLINES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000864

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: MARWA ON ELECTIONS, AIRLINES

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Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: General Buba Marwa (rtd.) discussed
Nigeria's recent elections immediately following the official
ceremony where INEC Chairman Iwu handed over the victory
certificate to PDP Presidential candidate Yar'Adua. Marwa
speculated that the "embarrassing" results of the
Presidential polls were based on surprises in the
Gubernatorial elections. Still, he commented, what choice do
we have but to move ahead with Yar'Adua. He also complained
that his grounded al-Barka airlines had been singled out
while another startup emerged with "questionable connections
and funding sources." Marwa did not seem comfortable with
Nigeria's political future, but he seemed resolved to play
whatever role was necessary in supporting the PDP's efforts
to consolidate its "questionable victories." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Buba Marwa, a retired general, former military
governor of two states, chairman of the grounded al-Barka
airlines and one-time PDP Presidential aspirant, discussed
Nigeria's recent elections with PolCouns. He phoned
immediately following the official ceremony where the
national elections commission (INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu
handed over the victory certificate to PDP Presidential
candidate Governor Umaru Yar'Adua.


3. (C) Marwa appeared resigned to his relegated role as a
supporting player in the current political constellation. He
complained that the PDP convention had been anything but
transparent, saying that he was told the exact number of
votes he would get during the convention prior to arriving at
the venue. Marwa expressed his concern about the "excesses"
committed by party members in inflating vote totals, but held
to the party line that "Yar'Adua would have won anyway."


4. (C) Marwa commented that his own security sources had
been surprised by the results emerging from the Gubernatorial
elections. He claimed he was informed by these sources that
"the PDP lost all six states in the Southwest and was losing
in the South South and the Southeast." He said he had been
told that Vice President Atiku's AC party had won three
states, Buhari's ANPP had won two and the Labor Party had one
won of the six states in the region. He said that the
devastating returns emerging from the South were
"embarrassing" to the President and speculated that the "lack
of voting" during the Presidential polls was based on these
surprises in the Gubernatorial elections.


5. (C) Marwa then returned to the party line, commenting
that Nigeria had "no choice but to move ahead with Yar'Adua."
He tried to support the thought that Yar'Adua would be a
"good president anyway," but worried that he would not be
able to "choose his own cabinet." Marwa said that President
Obasanjo had already given Yar'Adua the names of four
ministers and had chosen Yar'Adua's chief of staff. He said
Obasanjo planned to name at least nine more ministers "that I
know of." Marwa refused to speculate on his own role in the
next government, but his name has surfaced with rumors that
he will be the next Minister of Defense. He said that it
would be difficult for Yar'Adua to "extricate himself" from
President Obasanjo for at least six months and this would
make reconciliation and legitimacy "difficult."


6. (C) Turning to a more personal matter, he also complained
about his al-Barka Airline's grounding by "Obasanjo's
people." He fretted that he had been singled out even while
another startup emerged with "questionable connections and
funding sources." Marwa said that Arik Airlines, among the
newest of Nigeria's revolving-door aviation companies, "was
owned by Governor Odili and Obasanjo was a silent investor."
He asked rhetorically how this new start-up was able to raise
one and a half billion dollars to buy new Boeing jets.


7. (C) COMMENT: General Marwa was one of the governors
under the Abacha regime that was widely viewed as a stellar
performer. He won popular support in his home area as
Governor of Borno and in the Southwest as Governor of Lagos
and appeared to be one of a new generation of better-educated
professionals in Nigeria. With his failure as a Presidential
candidate, he does not see any choice but to support the

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elements of the ruling party that remain in charge of the
country. Even though he did not seem comfortable with
Nigeria's political prospects, he seemed resolved to play
whatever role was necessary in supporting the ruling party's
efforts to consolidate its "questionable victories."
CAMPBELL