NIGERIA: ASSESSING PROGRESS ON ELECTIONS

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W AND INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ASSESSING PROGRESS ON ELECTIONS

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. With April elections drawing ever nearer and
the deadline for voter registration at the end of January,
USAID elections partners remain pessimistic, though IFES
notes that completion of the voter registration exercise on
time is not entirely impossible. INEC continues to maintain
that the process is moving forward without a hitch, though
the INEC representative at this week's PDP retreat met with a
critical response from participants to his optimistic
assessment. IRI believes PDP emerged from the December
convention weakened by internal disagreements and is now
therefore more likely to resort to illegal means to ensure
its victory. The IRI representative posited, however, that a
weakened PDP and a groundswell of popular support for Buhari
could actually embolden INEC to act independently to ensure a
free and fair election afterall. END SUMMARY.


INEC REMAINS OPTIMISTIC, BUT CANDIDATES REBUFF CLAIMS
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2. (SBU) In a presentation at the PDP Retreat on January 10,
an unidentified INEC representative (reading a paper that
INEC Chairman Iwu had been scheduled to deliver) maintained
preparations for the elections remain on track. The official
told participants that 40,000 electronic registration
machines are currently distributed throughout Nigeria with
more to come. (NOTE: This is more than the 34,000 machines
INEC has been saying it will need for the elections and has
been telling the elections partners it currently has.) The
representative stated that INEC will not/not introduce manual
registration, maintaining that manual registration would be
"unconstitutional and illegal."


3. (SBU) Comments from the PDP candidates in response to the
INEC presentation were heated, indicating a high level of
frustration. A candidate for the Niger State House of
Assembly claimed that only 7,000 people in Niger State are
registered. The machines move every five days to a new
registration site, he said, but they can only register 25-30
people per day before the batteries run out and they can't
finish registering everyone before they move on to the next
location. A candidate from Rivers State complained that INEC
officials operating the machines are not properly trained.
He maintained one ward in Rivers State had only one
registration machine. He pointed out that some areas in his
state are accessible only by boat and have no electricity --
these voters are not being registered. Another candidate
complained that INEC has no authority to screen candidates,
noting that this should be up to the parties.


4. (SBU) The INEC representative maintained that the process
is going well. He claimed "many of the registration machines
sit idle because a majority of those wanting to register have
already done so." According to INEC, the registration sites
enroll 200-300 people per day. In addition, areas along the
rivers are fully covered and all sites have been supplied
with generators. He added that the registration process had
started early in some areas along the delta because
conditions for registration are more difficult.

ELECTIONS PARTNERS PESSIMISTIC, BUT NOT WITHOUT HOPE
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5. (C) In a January 11 meeting with USAID elections partners,
IFES told the Ambassador that recent INEC claims that 30
million voters have been registered are "possible," but
whether the figure is actually plausible or not depends
heavily on when additional electronic registration machines
were deployed, the efficiency with which they are working,
and whether registration sites remained open over the
holidays. It was noted that after all voters have
registered, the list must still be downloaded, merged and
allotted properly to states and local government areas (LGAs)
before it can be considered completed. IFES indicated that
it remains possible to meet the January 31 deadline; however,
it will require the registration of more than 30 million
additional voters in just three weeks.


6. (C) IFES stressed that a credible voter registration list

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provides the fundamental basis for a credible election. The
IFES representative noted, however, that Nigerian perceptions
of a "credible" list may differ from international
perceptions. In particular, IFES believes Nigerians are more
disposed to considering almost any list to be credible, owing
in large part to an overwhelming desire for a transition of
power in May. Credible elections also depend on a well
administered election day; however, the IFES representative
was pessimistic, indicating that the INEC is not only failing
to meet minimum acceptable standards but that there appear to
be no plans in place to attempt to meet them. The IRI
representative said the preliminary statement from the
November IRI/NDI observers team had to be softened prior to
its release due to fears INEC would no longer cooperate with
IRI if released as originally drafted. The final report has
been finalized and should be released in the coming week.

BUHARI VS. YAR'ADUA - THE RACE IS ON
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7. (C) There was general agreement among elections partners
that the race is between Buhari and Yar'Adua, with IRI noting
that some believe there is a chance Atiku may withdraw and
put his support behind Buhari. IRI told the Ambassador if
the elections were held today, Buhari would win. Rumors also
continue to circulate that the PDP (Obasanjo) may replace
Yar'Adua prior to the February 21 deadline for substitutions.
IRI reported that Buhari may be concerned that international
observers won't be allowed to observe the elections. The IRI
representative indicated the PDP had emerged from the
December convention weakened because the National Assembly
members who did not receive party backing for a second term
(those who had not supported Obasanjo's third term bid) will
actively campaign against the party. This, he indicated, may
make the PDP more likely to resort to illegal methods to
influence the outcome. He held out hope that PDP's weakened
position and a groundswell of popular support for Buhari may
actually embolden INEC to act independently and ensure a
credible election. As the situation stands now, however, he
told the Ambassador the elections "cannot be free and fair
because of the administration's use and control of government
resources."


8. (C) COMMENT. Discordant evaluations of elections
preparations to date are not new, nor are they surprising.
Hearing from our elections partners that not only is INEC
failing to meet basic standards for elections preparation,
but that there appear to be no plans in place to try to meet
these standards is disturbing. The sense is that, though we
haven't reached a point of no return, preparations must be
steered back on track soon. Perhaps the biggest obstacle
remains the unwillingness of INEC and the GON in general to
acknowledge the problem. NGOs and donor countries stand at
the ready to provide assistance but are repeatedly told that
everything is on track and no help is needed. IRI's
contention that overwhelming support for Buhari could
embolden INEC to act independently for free and fair
elections perhaps makes the valid point that the missing
ingredient is merely the political will to perform.
CAMPBELL