EL-RUFAI: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS DESTROYING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000753

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: EL-RUFAI: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS DESTROYING
ELECTIONS CREDIBILITY

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: FCT Minister el-Rufai, depressed,
complained about the greed of the PDP in the April 14
elections and acknowledged "some problems" with the
elections. But, he said the failure of Nigeria's elections
would be the "fault of the international community" for
undermining Nigerians' faith in their leadership. In reply,
the Ambassador stressed that the April 21 elections should be
conducted openly and INEC should strictly adhere to Nigeria's
own rules and guidelines in order to bolster faith in the
process. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir
el-Rufai requested a meeting April 19 to brief Ambassador on
the state of the nation in the wake of the April 14
Gubernatorial and state elections. El-Rufai was atypically
subdues in demeanor and told Ambassador that he had been
"depressed." He said that Nigeria would only declare one day
for holiday this week since "most Nigerians do not care as
much about the Presidential elections as the local
elections." He posited that there would be less violence
this week, but said that last week's violence had "surprised"
the government because it happened in unexpected places.


3. (C) El-Rufai expressed his concern about the quality of
the elections and acknowledged shortcomings. However, he
stated, "it is the reports of the international observers and
journalists that are destroying the credibility of the
elections." He went on to suggest that it would be the
international community's fault if, because of this loss of
credibility, "the military takes over." "And I see the signs
already," he concluded.


4. (C) The Ambassador stressed that the NDI and IRI teams
were independent of the USG and that they would report what
they see. The Ambassador then highlighted USG concerns over
the logistical shortcomings (as covered in White House and
DoS statements) and that the entire process should be
transparent. The Ambassador stressed that this included
collating and reporting of results.


5. (C) El-Rufai said that "some" in the PDP had gotten
greedy and said that he was aware that "in some states, the
votes were set aside and different results written." He said
that the results announced in the North were "generally
reflective" but that results in the Southwest and Southeast
were fraught with problems. Still, el-Rufai said, "only five
or six states had massive irregularities" and he expressed
his hope that the courts would still overturn enough results
to satisfy the opposition. Even so, el-Rufai stressed, not
all of the PDP supporters were very happy about the outcomes.


6. (C) El-Rufai claimed that the satellite system for
transmitting results "guaranteed" that the results announced
were accurate and that people should accept the accuracy. He
claimed that "even Buhari said he will not contest the
results of the elections." El-Rufai worried that the PDP had
"nearly lost" Kaduna, but ventured that the Presidential
returns would be different, with the PDP winning even more
states, including Kano and Borno. He dismissed any chance of
either a loss or a runoff, stating that Nigeria's "opposition
is too weak to matter."


7. (C) COMMENT: El-Rufai was clearly disturbed by the
conduct of the April 14 elections, but would not acknowledge
the full scope of the problems encountered. Instead, he
clearly wanted to impress that any failure would be the
result of the international community undermining confidence
in President Obasanjo's and INEC Chairman Iwu's commitment to
conduct free and fair elections.
CAMPBELL