OBSERVATION OF GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS: A REGIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ABUJA 000746

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: OBSERVATION OF GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS: A REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE

REF: A. ABUJA 716 AND PREVIOUS

B. ABUJA 717

C. ABUJA 731

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THIS MESSAGE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. A single characterization of the April 14
gubernatorial and state assembly elections across Nigeria's
six geopolitical zones is impossible. Observations cover the
full range -- from parts of Enugu and the Niger Delta regions
where elections were simply never held, to some areas of the
North Central and North East where the elections could be
regarded as fairly credible, and the full spectrum in
between. What we did observe as a trend in all areas was
disorganization, lack of trained officials, poor voter lists
and a lack of privacy (ref A). This cable will detail the
specific problems observed by Mission and other observers in
each of the geopolitical zones. END SUMMARY.

North Central Zone
--------------


2. (SBU) Polls were generally open by approximately 1100,
although some areas of Jos, Plateau state reported opening as
late as 1400. In most places polling concluded by 1600.
There were varying degrees of adherence to INEC guidelines on
posting of voters lists, procedures for verifying
registration and marking of the voters card and the
individual's finger after voting. In areas of Jos where no
voter list was given to polling officials, the officials were
noting the names of those who voted and told observers there
was an agreement with collation centers to accept these
votes. Observers in Makurdi, Benue state reported tensions
rising as early as 1100 as a result of insufficient materials
delivered to polling stations. Mission observers in Jos
noted a mob forming on the edge of town by noon on election
day. In Nasarawa state, some tension was observed when
voters found that at least one major candidate was not on the
gubernatorial ballot.


3. (SBU) While our own counts of votes throughout the nation
were sparse, it was noted that the ANPP was performing much
better in Nasarawa, Niger, Benue and Plateau states than
indicated in the INEC-announced results. We have little
direct information on the switching of numbers, but another
international observer commented that their group had "direct
evidence" of changes in the numbers from the polling stations
to the collation centers.


4. (SBU) INEC announced PDP victory in all six north central
states. In the aftermath of the announced election results,
sporadic violence has been reported in Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa,
Benue and Plateau states.

North West Zone
--------------


5. (SBU) The Mission fielded observers in Kaduna, Kano,
Katsina, and Sokoto States. Most polling stations opened
between 0830 and 1100, though some areas of old Kano city
opened as late as 1400. Local contacts report that in
Malumfashi and Funtua, in Katsina state, no materials were
received and no election took place. Despite the late
opening of some stations, polls closed between 1530 and 1700,
causing agitation among voters who had waited from early
morning but could not cast their vote. INEC officials lacked
proper training and many stations received insufficient
voting materials, including ballots. Voters reported
problems finding the correct polling stations as none had
been identified ahead of time. Privacy of votes was absent
at almost all polling stations, with party agents and others
(possibly, security services) hovering over voters. At one
station in old Kano city, party agents kept a list of voters'
names and who they voted for. At one polling station in
Katsina, observers witnessed party agents bribing voters in
line. Underage voting was observed in Kano, Katsina and
Sokoto states. As well, observers noted extremely low
turnout of women, except in Sokoto state. Voter turnout

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across the zone varied, with areas of Kano city as low as 10
percent, Katsina estimated at 30 percent, Sokoto at 40 and
Kaduna at as much as 35 percent.


6. (SBU) Sporadic violence was reported across all observed
states of the North West, with the exception of Sokoto and
Kaduna. In northern Kaduna, there were reports of ballot
boxes being carried off. Mission observers witnessed police
transporting electoral materials and ballot boxes. At one
station, observers were told that ballot boxes had been
stolen earlier in the day by "gangs of PDP youth." There
were reports from Katsina that the houses of PDP elders were
burned for allegedly trying to perpetuate irregularities.
At one polling station in old Kano city, observers were
caught in a riot when hundreds of angry youth carrying
machetes and sticks stormed the station. In Katsina city,
observers abruptly left a polling station as throngs of
youths armed with sticks ran towards the station, presumably
in an attempt to steal the ballot box. SSS agents approached
and harassed Mission personnel at polling stations in Kano.
In contrast to other areas of the North West, elections in
Sokoto appeared calm and orderly. No elections-related
violence was reported nor any attempts at ballot box stuffing
or theft.


7. (SBU) INEC announced PDP victory in Kaduna, Katsina,
Kebbi, Sokoto, and Jigawa states and an ANPP victory in Kano
and Zamfara. Sporadic violence has been reported in Katsina,
Kano and, to a lesser extent, Kaduna states.

North East Zone
--------------


8. (SBU) The Mission fielded observers in Bauchi and Gombe
states. Polls opened in most areas by 1000, with city
centers opening earlier than outlying villages as materials
arrived faster. Mission employees observed varying degrees
of disorganization at polling stations, but overall noted the
efforts of INEC polling officials to overcome problems with
voter lists and lack of materials. In one local government
area, polling stations did not receive fingerprint stamp pads
(fingerprints were used to mark ballots); instead, officials
used a marker to ink the voters' fingers. The lack of a
standardized, alphabetized voter list caused considerable
delays at some polling stations (up to 25 minutes to process
each voter),although others received alphabetized lists and
this cut the time to 3-4 minutes. Observers noted incidents
of underage voting, ranging from up to 20 percent of the
voters in line at one polling station to none at another.
Observers reported a low turnout of women voters. There were
varying degrees of voter privacy at polling stations, ranging
from one police officer standing over the ballot box to a
village that constructed their own thatch voting booth.
Several observers were informed of allegations of multiple
voting and Mission observers witnessed a ballot box
tug-of-war between party agents over accusations of multiple
voting at one polling station. Mission observers reported
seeing pick-up trucks with machette-wielding young men in
Alkaleri and domestic observers reported seeing similar
groups of men carry off ballot boxes in Alkaleri, Ganji and
Gombe. Media contacts reported security agents carried away
as many as 40 ballot boxes in Alkaleri and Ganji.


9. (SBU) Some polling stations remained open past 1500 to
allow voters in line to cast their ballots, while others
which had opened late were closed when observers returned at
1400 (making it impossible to vote for all who desired to do
so). Polling stations where Mission observers watched part
or all of the count were peaceful, although there was
considerable interest from non-accredited individuals. ANPP
party agents in Bauchi city were well organized and
communicated regularly between polling stations as the
counting began. Mission and international observers reported
an ANPP victory (with 2-3 times more votes than PDP) where
they observed the count, which corresponds to the margin
reported by domestic observers. Despite an observed
determination on the part of the voters, often standing in
line for hours to cast their vote, turnout at observed
stations was generally only 30-40 percent of the registered

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voters.


10. (SBU) INEC announced PDP victory in Gombe, Adamawa, and
Taraba states. ANPP won in Bauchi, Yobe and Borno states.
Street violence erupted near collation centers and INEC
offices in Bauchi on Sunday as ANPP supporters suspected
delays in announcing the results meant PDP tampering.
Sporadic violence has been reported in Adamawa, Taraba and
Gombe states since the results were announce.

South East Zone
--------------


11. (SBU) Mission observers visited polling stations in Enugu
and Anambra states. Most, but not all, polling stations in
Enugu had voters lists posted; no voters lists were posted in
Anambra. Voting, when it occurred, began late: after 1100 in
Awka and not at all in other areas of Anambra and after 1530
in Enugu city. Election materials were not distributed until
after mid-day in Enugu due to opposition protests which
stemmed from the absence of vote tally sheets (ref B). Poll
closing time was officially extended until 1800 in Enugu;
however, most polling stations never opened, and of the few
that did many in Enugu town opened as late as 1700. Many
potential voters were turned away because they were not on
the voter list, although they possessed a voters card for
that polling station. As a result, Mission observers noted
that no more than 40 ballots had been cast at any of the
polling stations we observed. Lack of materials was a
significant problem in all areas of Anambra and Enugu. Most
stations were supplied with only 100 ballots, while having
any where from 200 to 1,000 registered voters. Despite
recent court cases ordering his inclusion, Anambra state
ballots omitted the name of AC gubernatorial candidate Chris
Ngige. There was a pervasive problem of lack of privacy,
with Mission observers only finding one polling station where
votes were not cast directly in front of polling officials
and party agents. Domestic observer groups in Imo, Abia and
Ebonyi states reported similar problems to those observed in
Enugu and Anambra.


12. (SBU) Due to the late start of voting and growing tension
in Enugu, no vote counts were observed by Mission observers
in the Southeast region. All the polling stations we
observed in Anambra were missing vote tally sheets and it was
unclear how the vote count would be recorded at the end of
the day. Gunshots were heard on the streets of Enugu by dark
and Mission observers were unable to watch vote counts for
security reasons. Mission drivers who went out at 1830 to
refuel witnessed carloads of armed men driving through town
and discharging weapons in the air. Police reportedly
observed the shooting and did nothing.


13. (SBU) INEC has announced PDP victories in Ebonyi and
Anambra states and PPA victory in Abia. Gubernatorial
elections in Imo have been annulled due to violence and will
be rescheduled for April 28; however, results of the State
Assembly elections will stand. In Enugu, gubernatorial
results will not be announced until rescheduled elections are
held on April 26 in four of the seventeen local government
areas. Sporadic violence has been reported in Ebonyi, Abia,
Enugu and Imo states. Serious sporadic violence has been
reported in Anambra state.

South South Zone
--------------


14. (SBU) Violence plagued the South South zone and elections
did not occur in many places. Most international elections
observers avoided the Niger Delta States of Rivers, Delta,
Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom because of on-going violence; Mission
observed elections in Edo state only. There, INEC's
preparation was poor and Mission observers watched the
distribution of election materials in one area of Benin City.
Materials were distributed on an ad-hoc basis, with no
regard to the number of registered voters for each polling
station. As a result, many stations had insufficient
materials and some never received voting materials. Mission
observers saw significant numbers of under-aged voters. They

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witnessed armed militants invading polling stations,
intimidating election officials, and snatching ballot boxes
in Edo. In Benin City an NDI observer team was present when a
half dozen men armed with machine guns entered a polling
station, fired shots and snatched a ballot box. At least one
bystander was wounded. Overall, media reports more than a
dozen people dead in electoral violence in Edo state.


15. (SBU) NGO and international media sources indicate that
polls never opened in more than 80 percent of the locations
in Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states.
Vote counts were a source of numerous complaints across the
South South. In most cases, results were not announced at the
functioning polling locations. In many cases results
reported to collation centers were inconsistent with those
witnessed by party agents and observers at polling stations.
There were cases of vote tallies submitted for areas where no
elections were conducted because of a lack of materials --
with some areas alleging as much as 90 percent turnout. As
well, there were allegations of stuffed ballot boxes.
Mission observers were told by an INEC supervisor in Ekpohma
that more than 2,600 voters had voted in 4 hours, more than
quadruple rate observed elsewhere in the state -- increasing
the suspicion of an attempt to cover up ballot stuffing and
account for the extra votes. Perceptions of unfairness and
tampering led to protests at the INEC headquarters in Edo and
Delta states on April 15 and 16 before results were
announced. Protests turned to riots after results were
released in Benin City and a 0600 to 1800 curfew was imposed.


16. (SBU) INEC announced PDP victory in all six South South
states. Serious sporadic violence has been reported in
Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta and Edo states.

South-West Zone
--------------


17. (SBU) Voting in the South West started in most areas by
approximately 1100. Some areas reported insufficient ballots
for the number of registered voters. Areas of Lagos reported
varying degrees of organization, with some polling stations
operating fairly efficiently while others report party agents
had to answer questions from the INEC staff on proper
procedure. One polling station in Lagos apparently received
the wrong voters list and turned all voters away (as their
names did not appear on the list). Voting privacy was an
issue at most stations visited in the zone. At a few polling
stations, party agents were calling out the names of voters
on a bullhorn to "inform" the voter that they can vote.
Mission observers in Uselu area of Lagos saw a group of 20
youths running through a polling station. Police later told
the observers the youths had been intimidating voters. By
mid afternoon, reports were coming in to police stations in
Lagos, Lyanpaja and Agege that unknown thugs had seized
polling stations and taken ballot boxes. RSO office contacts
report that an army task force was keeping most people from
voting in Ajah area of Lagos. As well, Mission observers
reported sporadic unrest as voters became frustrated by the
long wait time and a lack of materials at some stations.


18. (SBU) Observers in the Festac Town area of Lagos visited
an INEC office at 1415 where they observed numerous stacks of
ballots being handled in the office. The observers were told
the ballots had been returned to INEC because a local PDP
candidate for State Assembly had been left off the ballot.
The INEC official told them he had referred the problem to
higher levels of INEC and was awaiting instructions. Once
counting began, there were reports of youth gangs ("area
boys") in a standoff with military at one collation station.
(Note: Military officials told observers they were under
orders to leave the polling station at 1800.) Mission
observers reported fewer than 20 percent of votes tallied in
at least four locations in Lagos.


19. (SBU) INEC announced PDP victory in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo,
Ogun, and Oyo states. AC won Lagos state. Serious sporadic
violence has been reported in Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo and Ekiti
states.


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20. (U) This is a joint Embassy/Consulate cable.
CAMPBELL