SNAPSHOT OF KEY NORTHERN GUBERNATORIAL RACES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 000697

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF KEY NORTHERN GUBERNATORIAL RACES

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Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for reasons 1.4 (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Similar to the Presidential contest, most
Northern gubernatorial elections will be fought between the
two major parties in Nigeria, the ruling Peoples' Democratic
Party (PDP) and the All Nigerian Peoples' Party (ANPP). The
only formidable challenge the Action Congress (AC) presents
is in Adamawa State, Vice President Atiku Abubakar's home
base and the final battleground in the Obasanjo-Atiku
impasse. As most northern Nigerians contend that eight years
of Obasanjo rule have only exacerbated the overall economic
situation in the North, antipathy towards the PDP will weigh
heavily in the minds of voters as they head to the polls on
April 14. The PDP's coordinated strategy to co-opt several
ANPP governors and its overarching power to control state
resources (including INEC, which tallies and announces
results) to serve its interests may help secure PDP victories
in a region of the country that is avowedly anti-PDP. Where
the ANPP could not be bought out (Kano, Borno, and Zamfara)
and candidates will look to ride the coattails of Buhari's
popularity, the ANPP will likely retain power. In states
such as Gombe, Jigawa, and Yobe, where party in-fighting
coupled with a disjointed, disunited opposition strengthen
the hand of the ruling party, PDP wins are expected. Bauchi
remains too close to call. Following is a rundown of key
gubernatorial races in the North. END SUMMARY.

ADAMAWA
--------------

2. (C) While Vice President Atiku Abubakar's hopes for the
Presidential seat appear dubious, the AC remains poised to
capture the state. Despite Governor Boni Haruna's widespread
unpopularity, PDP aspirant Retired Vice Admiral and former
Chairman of the Committee on Disbursement in the Nigerian
Ministry of Agriculture Murtala 'Maimagoro' Nyako will give
the AC candidate, former Secretary to the State Government
Ibrahim Bapetel, a tough fight. Many suspect that Governor
Haruna is doing Atiku's bidding in Adamawa. Haruna is viewed
with disdain by the electorate, owing to the lack of
infrastructure and services provided during his tenure in
office, complicating AC prospects in the state. At the same
time, Adamawa is home to a cadre of influential PDP
heavy-weights (for example, Senate Foreign Relations Chair
Jibril Aminu) and many other former ANPP elders who have
decamped to the PDP, all of whom will work to secure a win
for the ruling party. By all estimates, this will be a close
call. In view of the fact that the Obasanjo-Atiku impasse
will be played out in force in Adamawa, the stakes are high
for both the PDP and AC to capture the state. However,
should the PDP achieve an easy victory, this would assuredly
precipitate cries of electoral fraud and violence.

BAUCHI
--------------

3. (C) The race in Bauchi is a contest between the PDP's
Mohammed Nadada Umar and the ANPP's Isa Yuguda, former
Minister of Aviation. In advance of the December PDP
primaries, six of seven candidates stepped down in protest.
The PDP's capacity to manage and avert crisis within the
State party structure has aided in its cohesion and strength.
Though the ANPP's chances are buttressed by the popularity
of Buhari and the lack of confidence most of the electorate
vests in Governor Ahmad Adamu Mu'azu, an ANPP win will be
surprising given the likelihood that voters do not perceive
Yuguda as a strong contender. Both Umar and Yuguda played a
role in bringing Mu'azu to power in 1999 and again in 2003.
Yuguda, sacked from Obasanjo's cabinet in late 2006, decamped
to the ANPP when PDP State elders marginalized Yuguda during
the party membership revalidation exercise in November 2006.
Violence has erupted several times over the past few months
in Bauchi, owing in large part to the presumed ANPP and PDP
employment of political thugs known as "sarasuka" (unemployed
youth).

BORNO
--------------

4. (C) Recent clashes between the ANPP and PDP have
raised the political temperature in an otherwise quiet state.
Although currently under investigation by the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),ANPP gubernatorial

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incumbent Senator Ali Modu Sheriff hopes to ride Buhari's
coattails and cash in on what he believes are his
administration's successful reforms to the education and
health sectors. In contrast to 2003, when the PDP did not
court Borno as heavily, the ruling party is looking to cast
as wide a net as possible throughout the North, where Buhari
and not Yar'Adua is perceived to be more popular. Sources
inside the ANPP camp allege that the PDP has tried
unsuccessfully to buy out Sheriff, who already enjoys
enormous wealth. A former Obasanjo ally and confidante of
former Head of State Sani Abacha, Sheriff though popular is
also infamous for fomenting violence and for his tight grip
on dissent and opposition activities in Borno. PDP chances
in Borno are further challenged by in-fighting within its own
State party ranks. The PDP candidate, Kashim Ibrahim Imam,
ran unsuccessfully for the governorship in 2003.

GOMBE
--------------

5. (C) On March 19, State police arrested and detained DPP
candidate Abubakar Hadu Hashidu, former ANPP Governor of
Gombe State from 1999 to 2003, on incitement to commit arson
and conspiracy charges. Hashidu escaped on March 21 when his
men forcibly and violently orchestrated his release from a
magistrate court, allegedly wounding the magistrate in the
process. Unless and until the State's main opposition
candidates, Retired Colonel Musa Mohammed (AC),Jamilu Isyaku
Gwamna (ANPP),and Hashidu (DPP) can materialize into a
formal, unified opposition force the PDP faces no challenge
and incumbent Governor Mohammadu Danjuma Goje could be
announced the winner again despite his unpopularity.

JIGAWA
--------------

6. (C) With Governor Saminu Ibrahim Turaki's decamping to
the PDP, most political observers anticipate a relatively
facile PDP win. Unlike most other northern states, the
political importance of the Jigawa emirates, especially
Hadejia, is exploited historically by all political parties.
The Hadejia Emirate, which straddles two senatorial
districts, constitutes the largest electorate in the state.
Privately, the Emir of Hadejia is backing the PDP candidate
former Foreign Minister Sule Lamido, who ran unsuccessfully
in 2003. The ANPP's Senator Mohammed Ibrahim is popular but
his organization is no match for the PDP machinery. Still,
this is one of the states where Buhari polled in excess of
eighty percent in 2003, so the race is up in the air.

KADUNA
--------------

7. (C) The historic center of Northern politics, Kaduna is
also home to many influential businessmen, military
personnel, politicians, and civil society actors from
throughout the nation. Although the state once boasted a
strong ANPP presence, eight years of PDP rule under current
Senatorial aspirant Mohammed Makarfi, who was one of the few
northern governors to support Obasanjo's attempt at tenure
elongation, has made inroads to this strength. Makarfi's
efforts at fostering dialogue, brokering trust, and promoting
more equitable distribution of resources between the almost
evenly split Muslim and Christian communities have garnered
him much support and popularity among the Christians. While
it remains doubtful that the fractured opposition can
coalesce to challenge the PDP state machinery, the Zazzau
Emirate will not back him in the contest. Even though the
ANPP was expected to select Senator Ahmed Aruwa as the
party's gubernatorial candidate, his investigation by the
EFCC, squashed his chances thereby potentially also weakening
the prospects for a credible ANPP challenge in Kaduna. In
the end, this election remains close.

KANO
--------------

8. (C) In the latest census figures, Kano was determined to
be the most populated state in the nation with an estimated
9.3 million residents, 4.1 million of whom are registered
voters. Although the Kano electorate may be fickle and
unpredictable, four years of successful rule from ANPP
Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and his outspoken opposition to
Obasanjo's third-term bid have made him nearly unbeatable on
the street. Moreover, though Shekarau once served as the

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Permanent Secretary to the Kano State Government, he boasts
limited personal assets and therefore is exceedingly popular
- known affectionately by the common man as "Mallam"
(teacher). Shekarau also enjoys the unofficial endorsement
of the Emir of Kano, who has worked closely with Shekarau to
implement Sharia reforms in the state (known as the 'A
Daidaita Sahu' initiative). A strong supporter of Buhari,
Shekarau recently distanced himself from the General, whose
inner circle contends that Shekarau played too close to
Obasanjo in the past two years. Shekarau and Buhari have
been patching their differences, and together will remain
unbeatable in this state. The main opposition, PDP aspirant
Ahmed Garba Bichi, is not well known and has failed to amass
significant support from other Kano elite.

KATSINA
--------------

9. (C) According to the latest census, Katsina with 5.7
million residents is the fourth most populous state in the
country. The race in Katsina, the home state of leading
presidential aspirants Umaru Yar'Adua (PDP) and Muhammadu
Buhari (ANPP),is a fight between these two parties, but
given Yar'Adua's unpopularity the PDP will face strong
competition. House Foreign Relations Committee Chair and key
adviser to Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Usman Bugaje,
is flying the AC flag in the state. Bugaje is one of a
handful of gubernatorial candidates nation-wide to have
actually developed a thorough policy document, outlining his
plan of action should he become governor. Chief amongst his
objectives would be the development and protection of the
rule of law and the re-orientation of the state towards
principles consistent with the Islamic faith. On March 17,
Katsina State Police prevented the launching of the document.
This race is complex and the ability to rig will determine
the outcome.

KEBBI
--------------

10. (SBU) Though solidly ANPP from 1999-2006, the recent
defection of Governor Mohammadu Adamu Aliero to the PDP and,
particularly, his ability to harness the machinery of the
state may help the PDP. The PDP did not hold primaries for
the governorship in this state. Opposition parties DPP and
ANPP have also alleged that the state government has
prevented them from holding rallies in key areas of the
capital, Birnin Kebbi. Strongly ANPP in 1999 and 2003, it
will be difficult for even the machinery of state to change
this trend.

SOKOTO
--------------

11. (C) Sokoto is the seat of the caliphate, which governs
the 12 northern emirates, and is considered the spiritual
center for Nigeria's 70 million Muslims. Though divested of
formal political power by the Nigerian Constitution in 1960,
the Sultan of Sokoto's political overtures historically exert
limited influence. The current Governor of Sokoto State,
Attahiru Bafarawa, is also the Democratic Peoples' Party
(DPP) Presidential candidate. Following violent clashes on
March 10 between the DPP and PDP, Commissioner for Police
Saidu Daya banned all political rallies in the state. The
PDP co-optation of the ANPP candidate, Aliyu Magatakarda
Wamakko, who served as Governor Bafarawa's deputy from 1999
until 2005 when he resigned following impeachment allegations
by the State Assembly and the naming of former Minister of
Water Resources under Obasanjo, Mukhtari Shagari, as
Wamakko's running mate has strengthened considerably the
PDP's position in the state. Even so, Governor Bafarawa will
like to see the DPP continue its reign in Sokoto, in spite of
a strong ANPP presence.

YOBE
--------------

12. (C) Yobe State, traditionally dominated by the ANPP and
a Buhari stronghold, is gripped by in-fighting within the
ANPP and thus, is seriously threatened by the candidacy of
former head of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund
(PTDF) Adamu Waziri Maina, running on the PDP platform.
Current ANPP Governor Bukar Abba Ibrahim has openly declared
that he will not support the candidacy of ANPP candidate
Senator Mamman Ali, instead throwing his weight behind Maina.

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Still, the ANPP is likely to carry the day.

ZAMFARA
--------------

13. (C) Zamfara is the only state in which the current
governor is backing the gubernatorial bid of his deputy.
Governor Ahmed Sani Yerima is supporting Deputy Governor
Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi's candidacy for governor under the
ANPP. Carved out of Sokoto State in 1996 and dependent
heavily on federal funds, Zamfara is well-known for its 2000
re-introduction of the Sharia Criminal Code, which
criminalized and instituted carnal punishments for apostasy,
fornication, adultery, and theft. Though dismayed by
Governor Yerima's promises that the Sharia Code would improve
the lives of ordinary Zamfara residents, instead believing
that the Code was used to stymie dissent and conceal corrupt
state government practices, given a weak opposition and the
strength of the ANPP the electorate will return the ANPP to
power.
CAMPBELL