SUBJECT: EVALUATION OF NIGERIA'S 2007 ELECTION -

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000597

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: EVALUATION OF NIGERIA'S 2007 ELECTION -
PART A

REF: A. (A) STATE 26383

B. (B) 06 ABUJA 3216

C. (C) 06 ABUJA 2917

D. (D) 06 LAGOS 1313

E. (E) 06 ABUJA 3154

F. (F) 06 ABUJA 3061

G. (G) ABUJA 403

H. (H) ABUJA 182

I. (I) ABUJA 44

J. (J) ABUJA 462

K. (K) ABUJA 272

L. (L) ABUJA 233

ABUJA 00000597 001.2 OF 003


M. (M) ABUJA 123STATE 26383

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (U) Following is an assessment of the current state of
Nigeria's election preparations, keyed to REF A approved
criteria. This is the first of four initial responses and
updates as required.


A. Pre-Election Technical Preparations

(1) (U) Is the revised electoral law considered to be
acceptable and legitimate by the Nigerian people?

Anecdotally, we have no indication that the Nigerian people
find the electoral law unacceptable or illegitimate. NGOs do
not raise concern about the laws legitimacy, but rather the
level of compliance with the law on the part of INEC and
other government agencies.

(See also A3)

(2) (U) Were the voter registration timetables in the
Constitution and Electoral Law adhered to? If not, were
alternative arrangements made that were acceptable to the
main political forces in the country and broadly responsive
to international standards?

According to the law, the voter registration timetables were
not adhered to. An alternative schedule was adopted by INEC
to continue registering voters after the legally mandated
cutoff date. This alternative schedule, anecdotally, had
broad political acceptance and, as announced, was broadly
responsive to international standards.

(See also A3)

(3) (U) Was an amendment to the 2006 Electoral Act passed to
legalize continued voter registration after December 14, 2006?

Amendments to the May 2006 Electoral Act were passed by both
houses of the National Assembly in early 2007. The
amendments would legalize (after the fact) the extension of
the voter registration exercise beyond December 14, 2006 by
permitting registration until 60 days (rather than 120 days)
prior to the election (REF B). As of March 23, according to
government sources, the amended bill has not yet been signed
by the President. Until the amendment is signed into law,
the potential for challenges to the legality of the voters
register (and potentially therefore to the election itself)
remain.

(4) (U) Did INEC conduct a public information campaign to
educate the public on voter registration sites and
timetables? If not, what efforts were made to make this
information publicly available?

In late 2006 INEC did conduct a publicity campaign using
print ads, radio jingles, and television spots urging
Nigerians to register to vote (REF C). However, many
contacts report that information on registration procedures,
locations and timetables was not widely available in many
parts of the country (REF D, E, F). International and local
NGOs as well as the Nigerian media and the National Assembly
have all made this observation.

(5) Does pre-election monitoring data by government sources
or international or local NGOs/civil society groups show that

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a majority of eligible voters was able to register?

As indicated by much anecdotal evidence, the registration
process was opaque and unpredictable, and therefore,
impossible to monitor. According to GON sources, nearly all
eligible voters were registered (REF G). Chairman Iwu has
told the Embassy that "everyone who wanted to register had
done so." Local and international NGOs have raised concerns
about the voters register, but since INEC has yet to make a
copy of the list available, they have been unable to conduct
a robust analysis of the number of registered voters or the
quality of the list (REF H).

(6) (C) Is the total number of registered voters consistent
with what was expected, given previous voter rolls and recent
census data?

Given the difficulties with previous voter rolls as well as
the recent census data (REF I),this is difficult to assess.
Additionally, there is no final number on the voters register
count as the register has not been released. The most recent
census found that there are approximately 140 million
Nigerians, and demographic data indicates that 54% of
Nigerians may be under the age of 18 (and thus not eligible
to vote.) We could expect a population of approximately 64
million eligible voters. INEC's announcement of 61 million
registered voters would imply that 95 percent of eligible
voters were registered. Given that our most optimistic
anecdotal information from around the country, including
contacts with NGOs, local traditional rulers, and political
parties, is that "80 percent of those who tried to register
succeeded," it seems that at least 20 percent (12 million) of
these registered voters are questionable. Further, the
distribution by state of registered voters (as announced) is
significantly different than the population distribution by
state in the census data. Until better figures for the
voters register are made available, further analysis of the
data is impossible.

(7) (U) Were voter registration cards issued to eligible
voters whose identification was properly verified and
recorded? If not, were alternative arrangements made?

No permanent voters' registration cards have been issued as
of March 23. Most persons who registered were given a paper
receipt. According to INEC, alternative arrangements to
deliver voters cards will be determined in the near future,
once the cards have been produced. According to both INEC
and NGO sources, identification was neither required nor
uniformly verified and recorded during the voter registration
process.

(8) (U) Was the final voters roll published and widely
available for review as per the election law? If not, what,
if any, arrangements were made to make the voters rolls
available for review?

As of March 23, INEC says it is preparing the final voters
roll for each of the 36 states and the FCT and INEC hopes to
distribute it to the 50 political parties "soon" (REF J).
Until today, the roll has not been made available to the
public. (Note: INEC has no plan to compile a comprehensive
nation-wide list. It will remain disaggregated at the state
level.) INEC announced that the voters roll was available
for display nationwide between February 5 and 10. However,
as reported reftel (REF K),international and national NGOs
reported they were unable to find any evidence the list was
posted in most of the nation.

(9) (U) What process was put in place (and publicized) to
allow for correction or challenge of the data on the voters
roll in sufficient time to make corrections before the
election?

INEC reported that some 10,000 corrections were requested to
the 61 million registrations, and both INEC and international
NGOs noted that this number was low. NGOs also expressed
concern that no formal process to correct or challenge the
voters' register data had been created or publicized (REF L).


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(10) (SBU) Was information on the date and time of polling
and location of polling sites readily available? How was
this information made available?

To date, this information is not available publicly. A UNDP
funded project to digitize the list of polling stations was
completed on/about March 23, and the Embassy expects to
receive a copy of the digital list from UNDP in coming days.

(11) (SBU) Did INEC have the necessary funds for training,
supplies and logistical issues associated with elections? If
not, was there a deliberate attempt to deny election
officials the necessary resources?

INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu has repeatedly told the
international community, including foreign diplomats, that
INEC has sufficient funding. However, he has also made
public statements claiming that the GON has not provided
enough funding to ensure credible elections. Embassy's
assessment is that sufficient funding is available if
deployed appropriately.

(12) (C) Were ballots, ballot boxes and other materials
procured on time and in sufficient number? If not what is
the reason behind these inadequacies and were they overcome.

The INEC Chairman continues to assure the international
community that procurements are "on track," but international
NGOs remain unconvinced of this (REF M). For example,
according to contacts at the National Assembly, printing of
the ballots has not yet begun and the vendor has not yet been
paid the customary "advance fee." Updates will be provided as
warranted.

(13) (U) Were the voting materials stored securely ahead of
the polls in order to avoid fraud and manipulation?

INEC has yet to provide information on this question.

(14) (U) Was a process established and well publicized to
accredit domestic monitors and international observers?

At present, no guidelines have been issued. It has been
impossible to get a clear answer from INEC on this issue and
rumors abound as to new restrictions being contemplated for
both domestic and international observers. NGOs voiced
concern over the current lack of an accreditation for
domestic monitors (REF H).

(15) (U) Did INEC issue and publicize guidelines for party
polling agents, domestic monitors, and international
observers?

INEC has yet to provide information on this question.

(16) (U) Were legitimate civil society groups able to
register or allowed to serve as election monitors?

INEC has yet to provide information on this question. (See
question 14)

(17) (U) Were all requesting international observer
delegations accredited? Was accreditation done in an
appropriate and timely manner?

No accreditation process is in place yet. (See question 14)

COMMENT
--------------


2. (C) As can be discerned in the answers to these
questions, the pre-election technical preparations have been
woefully inadequate. The lack of clarity on outstanding
issues remains troubling this close to election day. While
failure is not inevitable, as election day looms closer, the
possibility of a success is, indeed, slipping away.
CAMPBELL