NIGERIA CENSUS RESULTS - STATUS QUO MAINTAINED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000044

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

USDOC FOR BUREAU OF THE CENSUS: OFFICE OF AFRICA

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: SOCI KDEM ECON PGOV EAID NI CENSUS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA CENSUS RESULTS - STATUS QUO MAINTAINED

REF: A. 06 ABUJA 2836

A. 06 ABUJA 688

A. 06 ABUJA 634

B. 06 ABUJA 568

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Nigerian National Population Commission (NPC)
released the first census in 15 years. The census tabulations
affirmed conventional wisdom that the majority of the population is
in the 17 northern states - 75 million compared to 65 million in the
southern states. The largest state is Kano, followed by Lagos,
Kaduna and Katsina. The NPC reportedly will release tabulations for
cities, local government authorities and towns in several weeks
time. The major funding donor, the EU Commission, had not yet
received the official figures and commented that it played no role
in the data evaluation of the census. END SUMMARY.

Piecemeal Release of the Census
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2. (U) On January 9, the National Council of State (NCS) met and
unanimously accepted the provisional results of the 2006 census that
was handed over to the Federal Executive Council in December 2006 by
the NPC. The NCS comprises the President, former heads of state and
the state governors. The NCS met under the chairmanship of President
Obasanjo.

State Tabulations - Northern Weight
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3. (SBU) The overall population of the country stands at 140 million
(m),a 63% increase since the last census in 1991. Most population
experts regard the 1991 census as undercounting the actual number of
persons in the country. The population comprises 71 million males
and 68 million females. The northern states have a population of 75
million, while those in the south have a population of 65 million.
The largest ten states are:
-- Kano 9.3m
-- Lagos 9.01m
-- Kaduna 6.06m
-- Katsina 5.7m
-- Oyo 5.5m
-- Rivers 5.1m
-- Bauchi 4.6m
-- Jigawa 4.3m
-- Benue 4.2m
-- Delta 4.09m
-- Niger 3.9m
The smallest state is the FCT with a population of 1.4 million.


4. (U) The fastest annual growth rate is in the FCT at 9.3% followed
by:
-- Yobe 3.5%
-- Rivers, Oyo, Niger, Borno and Bauchi 3.4%
The slowest annual growth rates are in Abia, Edo and Plateau at
2.7%.

The President Speaks Out
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5. (U) President Obasanjo said that Nigeria must control its
population growth rate to ensure that the economy can accommodate
the population. He noted that the 3.2% annual growth rate implies
that a minimum economic growth rate of 10%t was necessary and that
high rates of poverty generally correlate with large households. He
asserted that more focus be given educating female children
education and discouraging early marriage.

Lagos State Figure Lower Than Expected
--------------


6. (SBU) Lagos State Government (LSG) said it would study the
results before coming out with its position regarding the census
result. Before the census the LSG had believed that the population
of Lagos was not be less than 15m people, considering in 1996 the
United Nations estimated the population at 10.9m, projecting that it
would become the world's third most populous city with 24.6 million
inhabitants by 2015. Metropolitan Lagos spills over into
neighboring Ogun state so Lagos State and Lagos metropolitan
population need not correlate. Still, it is difficult to believe

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that the Lagos State population could be less than 10 million.

Not Everyone Agrees with the Census Figures
--------------


7. (SBU) In reftel A we reported that the Civil Society Coalition on
Census Monitoring (CSCCM),a collective effort of 80 NGOs to monitor
the census compiled a report that concluded that the census was
disorganized and inefficient. CSCCM representatives told us that
its monitors documented a general nationwide problem with a lack of
materials and or staff at many locations. Moreover, many people
were discouraged from waiting in long lines, while others could not
find people to document them, and others, hoping to game the system,
registered in multiple places. CSCCM underscored that many people
were not counted, and overall, the 2006 census did not inspire a
sufficient level of technical or political confidence to call it
successful.


8. (SBU) Abia State Governor Orji Uzor Kalu told the media that he
disagreed with the census figures. He said "Nigerians are not 140
million. We are 210 million. Taking my own family into
consideration, I was the only one counted during the last census, my
wife, children, household help and many people in my village and
state were not counted."


9. (SBU) The Deputy Chief of Mission of the Brazilian Embassy
scoffed at the released census figures and commented that the
numbers are greatly inflated. Abubakar Momoh, political science
lecturer at Lagos State University, told the media that if the
figures had shown a majority of the population resided in the south,
it could have led to a very chaotic situation. He added that there
would be disappointment in the south, but did not believe it would
lead to major protests or violence.


10. (SBU) The European Commission was a major backer of the census,
contributing $138 million. A representative of the Commission said
that it provided technical support, equipment and consultants to
help the NPC. The Commission had no role in the tabulation and
evaluation of figures. As of January 10, the Commission had not
been provided with an official release of census figures and
complained that the NPC was slow to respond to inquiries. He noted
that tabulations could be challenged via census tribunals to be
constituted at the direction of the Chief Justice of the Supreme
Court. Each state would be designated with a census tribunal and
members would come from state courts. The tribunals would be
constituted once all final census figures are released.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) The politically sensitive breakdown of census figures
maintained the status quo ahead of April elections. Reftel A
predicted that mid-January would be a realistic time period for
release of the census. The figures holding the population of the
northern states at 75 million and that of the southern states at 65
million do not challenge Nigeria's complex political system, which
has been delicately balanced for decades on the assumption the north
has a numerical advantage. Census figures usually spark controversy
in Nigeria because the population is a basis for revenue sharing.
States with larger populations get a bigger share of the Federation
Account. UN and NGO figures of 12 to 15m (including Lagos
metropolitan areas outside Lagos state) could be at odds with the
census finding of Lagos State as only 9.01 million. The provisional
figure of 1.4 million for the FCT appears an understatement.
Demographic observers in the FCT opine that the population should
not be less that 3 million. However, many residents likely claim to
live in their states of origin, offsetting some of the discrepancy.



12. (SBU) NGO organizations and some observers have serious
reservations about whether the census tabulations were transparent
and fair, and credible. These observers speculate that the data is
inconsistent with voter registration information. We received
numerous complaints reported in reftels B,C and D associated with
the conduct of the census such as inadequate enumeration materials,
inadequate training for the ad-hoc enumeration officers, and delay
in the payment of allowances of enumeration officials. These
factors resulted in numerous people not being counted and some
enumeration officials refusing to conduct enumeration when they were

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not paid. As the new figures are absorbed, a number of quibbles and
challenges can be expected. One point is certain - the Nigerian
population will continue to grow and regional elites will spin this
growth to substantiate political claims.
CAMPBELL