THE ELECTORAL PLAYING FIELD TILTS NOTICEABLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: THE ELECTORAL PLAYING FIELD TILTS NOTICEABLY


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Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reason 1.4 (B a
nd d)


1. (C) Summary: With less than two months to go before
elections in Nigeria, the ordinary logistical and managerial
confusion which has characterized previous elections is
giving way to what appears to be political exclusion. Recent
coordinated actions by several key government agencies and a
specially constituted government administrative panel have
led to the apparent disqualification of Vice President Atiku
Abubakar and 89 other candidates. The Economic and Financial
Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent National
Elections Commission (INEC) have both played a prominent role
in the exercise. The Vice-President previously won court
challenges to the legality of this process, which the
government also used in its attempt to indict him and declare
his office vacant. Although further legal challenges are
likely, time is running out before elections and INEC does
not have to publicize its final candidate list for another
month. End summary.

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ROLE OF GOVERNMENT AGENCIES: THE EFCC AND ITS LISTS
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2. (U) With less than two months to go before elections in
Nigeria, the ordinary logistical and managerial confusion
that has characterized previous elections is giving way to
what appears to be political exclusion. The latest EFCC list
of allegedly corrupt politicians was at variance with earlier
pronouncements by the agency. For example, the Chief
Executive of the EFCC, Nuhu Ribadu, stated at a Senate
hearing in late 2006 that 31 sitting governors were guilty of
corruption. These included Goodluck Jonathan of Bayelsa
state, Ahmed Sani of Zamfara State, Chimaroke Nnamani of
Enugu State, Peter Odili of Rivers state and Gbenga Daniel of
Ogun state. There have been no indictments or prosecutions
since the EFCC announcement.


3. (U) The EFCC officially unveiled a new list of "corrupt
politicians" on February 5. It included the names of 135
people aspiring for for elected office. Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) aspirants were on the list but the majority named
were opposition party candidates. Vice President Atiku
Abubakar's name was first on the list, and a number of PDP
candidates previously named by Ribadu before the Senate were
conspicuous by their absence. Among those missing from the
updated list are Governors Jonathan (Bayelsa),Ahmed Sani
(Zamfara),Peter Odili (Rivers) and Gbenga Daniel (Ogun).


4. (U) The EFCC indicated in the cover note forwarding
the list to the political parties that it was only advisory
and intended to assist the internal party review process.
The letter went on to say that the "list was proposed in the
hope that it will save your party of the untidy decision of
having to, belatedly, file candidates midstream in the event
of unexpected disqualification." According to the 1999
Nigerian constitution, only a court of law, judicial or
administrative panel of inquiry can disqualify candidates.

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GOVERNMENT NAMES PANEL OF INQUIRY
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5. (U) Shortly after the release of the EFCC list, the
Federal Government formed an Administrative Panel of Inquiry
composed of the president's aides and senior civil servants
to investigate the "indicted politicians." The
Administrative Panel was headed by a law professor and
Permanent Secretary at the Justice Ministry, Professor
IGNATIUS Ayua. The Panel sat for only three days (10 ) 12
February) and submitted its report on February 13th. It is
not clear how many people on the EFCC list appeared before
the Panel, but media reports indicate that the vast majority
of the people on the list refused to appear before the body.


6. (U) The Panel quickly submitted its report essentially
confirming the EFCC list, although reportedly with some
notable exceptions. The Panel's report named 90 "corrupt
politicians." It was forwarded to the Federal government,
which in turn, accepted the report. This process, the
Nigerian government argues, fulfills the Constitutional
provision regarding the disqualification of any candidates on
the EFCC list.

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7. (U) Late last year, Atiku won a court challenge regarding
the process and outcome of a similarly constituted
administrative panel which indicted him for his alleged role
in the PTDF saga. The government then had used the
administrative panel "indictment" to declare Atiku ineligible
to contest for the presidency.

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REACTION TO THE EFCC LIST
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8. (U) There have been a series of reactions to the EFCC
Advisory list ranging from condemnations to litigation. Vice
President Atiku Abubakar, who topped the list, instructed his
lawyers to sue EFCC Chairman Nuhu Ribadu in both his personal
and official capacities. Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu, Anambra
AC governorship candidate Chris NgigeQand two Anambra
lawmakers have sued the EFCC for including their names on the
list. One of the Anambra lawmakers was subsequently
"cleared" by the EFCC.

9. (U) The Action Congress issued a statement directing all
its candidates to "disregard the EFCC list and shun the
Administrative Panel of Inquiry." Former Finance Minister,
Adamu Ciroma, an Obasanjo supporter whose wife is Minister of
Women's Affairs, was quoted as saying that neither the EFCC
nor INEC has powers to screen and disqualify candidates.

10. (U) Senate President Ken Nnamani on February 15 sounded a
note of caution to EFCC,s Nuhu Ribadu, who led a delegation
of the ECOWAS Intergovernmental Action Group against Money
Laundering in Africa to the Senate. Senator Nnamani
cautioned Ribadu against "actions that could jeopardize the
credibility of EFCC." "Corruption has impacted negatively on
the economy. It will be disastrous if anything is done to
destroy the credibility of the EFCC," he was quoted as saying.

11. (U) General Muhammadu Buhari has linked the list to the
overall strategy of the Obasanjo government to rig the
elections. General Buhari,s party, the ANPP questioned the
rationale for the inclusion of some of its candidates who had
never been public officials. For instance, the name of Chief
Olanrewaju Tejuosho, an ANPP candidate who survived an
assassination attempt and is contesting the same senatorial
seat as President Obasanjo,s daughter, Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello,
made the list even though he has never held public office.

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THE ROLE OF INEC, PLUS A STRANGE COURT CASE
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12. (U) INEC has taken a leading role in declaring that
candidates named by the panel of inquiry are effectively
disqualified. Speaking at a national forum on elections in
Abuja on February 15, INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu warned that
political parties that failed to substitute disqualified
candidates would suffer the consequences. "We have said
repeatedly that any party that fails to meet the deadline for
substitution of disqualified candidates should be ready to
forfeit its seats because we shall not re-open the chapter,
no matter who is involved."


13. (C) While publicly INEC has indicated that it will
enforce a ban on indicted candidates, internally there appear
to be deep divisions on the issue, most importantly involving
the candidacy of Atiku. On February 14, the EFCC arrested
three INEC Commissioners on corruption charges. Embassy
contacts and media reports indicate that the actual reason
for the arrest of the Commissioners was their belief that
INEC lacked the power to disqualify Atiku. The arrested
Commissioners, including the Commissioner responsible for
Legal Services Mohammed Abubakar, allegedly insisted at a
meeting with the INEC chairman that INEC had no legal backing
to disqualify Atiku from contesting elections. Abubakar told
PolCouns that he had "refused to sign the disqualifications
under pressure from Iwu." Atiku's court challenge is due for
hearing on February 20, which is also the deadline for
parties to substitute presidential candidate's names to INEC.


14. (U) Another case making its way through the courts is
an attempt to disqualify General Buhari, the ANPP
presidential candidate. An obscure lawyer has petitioned the
Abuja High Court asking for an order of mandamus, compelling
the federal government to prosecute the retired general over
the 1983 coup. Although the case may have been filed
primarily for publicity, the federal government did not
object to this request by the applicant, an indication that

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there was some level of accordance.

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COMMENT
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15. (C) The Nigerian government's aggressive attempt to ban
a large number of candidates, most of whom are visibly
ill-at-ease with the PDP's presidential ticket, at the last
minute appears to be part of a worrying trend. The resulting
conclusion is that with eight weeks to the election, these
latest actions, combined with INEC's disorganization, are
clear indicators that Nigeria's electoral playing field is
now alarmingly far from level.
CAMPBELL