ELECTIONS PARTNERS -- KEEPING PREPARATIONS ON TRACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000182

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - UPDATED CLS STMNT

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL 26 JAN 2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS PARTNERS -- KEEPING PREPARATIONS ON TRACK

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CLASSIFIED BY AMB JOHN CAMPBELL, CL REASON 1.4 (B) (D)

REF: ABUJA 123


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Ambassador met with representatives of
IFES, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and PACT
Nigeria on January 25 to discuss ongoing elections
preparations efforts. INEC continues to register large
numbers of voters in the final weeks of the registration
exercise, claiming 43 million registered as of early in the
week. Elections partners, however, are highly skeptical of
these claims and remain concerned about the quality of data
collected. IFES reported INEC is "very secretive and closed"
and voiced concern that internal rivalries may hinder the
effectiveness of the IFES technical team. NDI, IFES and PACT
were unanimously concerned over the current lack of an
accreditation process for domestic monitors. They were
specifically concerned that the Nigerian Alliance for
Credible Elections (ACE),the leading coalition of civil
society organizations monitoring elections, may be prohibited
from registering as a result of bad blood between ACE and
INEC. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The Ambassador met with representatives of IFES, NDI
and PACT Nigeria on January 25 in a regular venue to discuss
elections preparations. The IFES representative said he
remains skeptical of recent INEC claims that it has
registered more than half the electorate (43 million). IFES
reported there is no way to check the INEC claims or the
quality of the data at present because all data is still
located on individual direct data capture machines and
laptops at registration sites (approximately 30,000 machines
according to INEC). NDI called the INEC numbers "magic,"
saying such a turnaround in the process is unrealistic at
best. NDI says its partners are still reporting problems
finding registration sites and nonfunctional registration
machines.


3. (C) However, even if the numbers registered are accurate,
the more troubling issue is data quality. Despite recent
amendments to the Electoral Law which give INEC until
February 14 to publish the voters list, the timeline for
processing the data is extremely tight. IFES reported INEC
plans to complete registration by January 31 (another 20-25
million registered in one week),after which it will have to
compile and then process the data into ward lists for
posting. IFES believes this "posting period" will likely not
include a correction period, despite the legal requirement.
The Electoral Law requires publication of the final voters
list by February 14 (60 days prior to the elections). NDI
reported that the lack of transparency in scheduling for the
display and potential correction of the lists has hindered
their ability to conduct a planned "Check the List" campaign.

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INEC: INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ISSUES
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4. (C) Despite a new "sense of urgency" within INEC, IFES
said that both within INEC and among the three organizations
consulting on data integration rivalries are hampering
preparations. UNDP and IFES have both provided consultants
on data integration; however, IFES says a third consultant, a
Nigerian-American who is allegedly a friend of INEC Chairman
Maurice Iwu's son, is running the show and keeping the other
two NGOs at arms length. IFES also complained that UNDP had
allowed INEC to screen their consultants, a process through
which several consultants were refused in favor of "more
acceptable alternatives." IFES said it has decided to keep
its consultant on the ground, but reported the situation is
so bad it threatens the efficacy of continued participation.
In addition, IFES indicated there are serious communication
problems within INEC upper management itself. According to
IFES, the directors of the two departments responsible for
the voter registration list and the electronic registration
machines do not get along and, therefore, the departments do
not regularly meet or consult.


5. (C) NDI and PACT Nigeria also reported problems between
INEC Chairman Iwu and General Secretary Emma Ezeazu of the
Alliance for Credible Elections (ACE),a coalition of NGOs
working on elections monitoring and education. The two have
long had a contentious relationship, but a recent volley of
media statements and editorials has become increasingly
personal and, as PACT has pointed out to Ezeazu,
unprofessional. PACT has warned Ezeazu to tone down the

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CLASSIFIED BY AMB JOHN CAMPBELL, CL REASON 1.4 (B) (D)

rhetoric and keep his statements factual in order to preserve
credibility and remain effective in the monitoring process.
NDI and PACT both worried that the spat could impact INEC's
willingness to accredit ACE and/or other domestic NGOs as
domestic monitors. With more than 120,000 polling stations,
the approximately 60,000 domestic monitors expected are of
considerable importance to the monitoring effort and will far
outnumber international observers. INEC has not yet
published guidelines for accreditation, despite IFES' efforts
to push this issue forward.


6. (C) COMMENT. This is not the first instance of concerns
regarding the quality of registration data collected. Even
if registration numbers are good, poor data quality is a
serious threat to the credibility of the list. Domestic
monitors will be vital to the process as well and the
importance of an accreditation process is clear. There has
been no pressure from political parties for INEC to establish
an accreditation process for monitors. This may be
indicative of the political parties' desire to take advantage
of the corrupt and opaque system for their own purposes. All
present agreed it is premature for the U.S. to pressure INEC
on the accreditation process. However, post will continue to
watch this issue for possible action in the coming weeks.
END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL