Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ABUJA179
2007-01-26 10:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
MAKARFI ON YAR'ADUA, ELECTIONS
how-toVZCZCXRO9386 PP RUEHCD DE RUEHUJA #0179 0261056 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 261056Z JAN 07 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8456 INFO RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW PRIORITY 0093 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ PRIORITY 0091 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS PRIORITY 6021 RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000179
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: MAKARFI ON YAR'ADUA, ELECTIONS
Classified By: DCM Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000179
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: MAKARFI ON YAR'ADUA, ELECTIONS
Classified By: DCM Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
1. (C) Deputy Chief of Mission and visiting AF/W Deputy
Director Donald Heflin paid a January 24 courtesy call on
Kaduna State Governor Ahmed Makarfi. Although previously
considered the leading contender for the PDP presidential
nomination, Makarfi is now weighing his options with his eyes
on the Senate after he voluntarily "pulled out" ahead of the
December PDP presidential primaries. Makarfi believes that
Yar'Adua will capture 60% of the vote, though he remains
skeptical Yar'Adua can beat All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP)
presidential aspirant Muhammadu Buhari in any geopolitical
zone except the South-South, where he expects Yar'Adua to win
by a landslide.
2. (C) Governor Ahmed Makarfi, who came to power in 1999
under the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) platform, is
concluding his second term in office. When asked about the
PDP's selection of Katsina State Governor Umaru Yar'Adua as
the party's presidential flag-bearer, Makarfi stated that
intense negotiations took place up until the December 19
primaries but that he was neither intimidated nor coerced to
"pull out" of contention. However, he admitted that "of
course this happened with others." Moreover, Makarfi
anticipates the ANPP and Action Congress (AC) to merge and
carry the North, South-West, and South-East geo-political
zones.
3. (C) When asked about the sluggish pace of voter
registration, Makarfi noted that 2.6 million Kaduna State
residents had been registered, but that both he and Yar'Adua
remain concerned and "suspicious" that the current elections
timetable will hold. In spite of the disappointing tempo of
voter registration, Makarfi stated that elections are
threatened more by the looming specter of manipulation,
through blackmail or intimidation, that surrounds Kaduna. He
added that in a recent meeting with Democratic Peoples' Party
(DPP) candidate Sokoto State Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, both
agreed that the vast majority of the Nigerian political elite
would not accept postponement of elections.
4. (C) With respect to Makarfi's future ambitions, he
remarked that while he did not "choose" to pursue a Senate
seat, he acknowledges that a Senate seat may be his best
option, should a Cabinet appointment in Yar'Adua's government
not come to pass.
5. (C) COMMENT: Governor Ahmed Makarfi has been lauded for
his efforts at stemming inter-communal violence in
conflict-prone Kaduna State mainly through curfews and
segregation buttressed by the substantial military presence
in the State. He is currently engaged in negotiations with
the PDP. While he is considering a run for the Senate, other
PDP National Assembly members from Kaduna State with whom we
have spoken doubt his ability to win in Kaduna, given his
unpopularity. Though not rewarded for his loyalty and
ardent, vocal support for Obasanjo's third-term bid, Makarfi
deems himself Yar'Adua's "closest" confidant and this will
figure heavily in his own political relevance and influence
in the PDP. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: MAKARFI ON YAR'ADUA, ELECTIONS
Classified By: DCM Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
1. (C) Deputy Chief of Mission and visiting AF/W Deputy
Director Donald Heflin paid a January 24 courtesy call on
Kaduna State Governor Ahmed Makarfi. Although previously
considered the leading contender for the PDP presidential
nomination, Makarfi is now weighing his options with his eyes
on the Senate after he voluntarily "pulled out" ahead of the
December PDP presidential primaries. Makarfi believes that
Yar'Adua will capture 60% of the vote, though he remains
skeptical Yar'Adua can beat All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP)
presidential aspirant Muhammadu Buhari in any geopolitical
zone except the South-South, where he expects Yar'Adua to win
by a landslide.
2. (C) Governor Ahmed Makarfi, who came to power in 1999
under the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) platform, is
concluding his second term in office. When asked about the
PDP's selection of Katsina State Governor Umaru Yar'Adua as
the party's presidential flag-bearer, Makarfi stated that
intense negotiations took place up until the December 19
primaries but that he was neither intimidated nor coerced to
"pull out" of contention. However, he admitted that "of
course this happened with others." Moreover, Makarfi
anticipates the ANPP and Action Congress (AC) to merge and
carry the North, South-West, and South-East geo-political
zones.
3. (C) When asked about the sluggish pace of voter
registration, Makarfi noted that 2.6 million Kaduna State
residents had been registered, but that both he and Yar'Adua
remain concerned and "suspicious" that the current elections
timetable will hold. In spite of the disappointing tempo of
voter registration, Makarfi stated that elections are
threatened more by the looming specter of manipulation,
through blackmail or intimidation, that surrounds Kaduna. He
added that in a recent meeting with Democratic Peoples' Party
(DPP) candidate Sokoto State Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, both
agreed that the vast majority of the Nigerian political elite
would not accept postponement of elections.
4. (C) With respect to Makarfi's future ambitions, he
remarked that while he did not "choose" to pursue a Senate
seat, he acknowledges that a Senate seat may be his best
option, should a Cabinet appointment in Yar'Adua's government
not come to pass.
5. (C) COMMENT: Governor Ahmed Makarfi has been lauded for
his efforts at stemming inter-communal violence in
conflict-prone Kaduna State mainly through curfews and
segregation buttressed by the substantial military presence
in the State. He is currently engaged in negotiations with
the PDP. While he is considering a run for the Senate, other
PDP National Assembly members from Kaduna State with whom we
have spoken doubt his ability to win in Kaduna, given his
unpopularity. Though not rewarded for his loyalty and
ardent, vocal support for Obasanjo's third-term bid, Makarfi
deems himself Yar'Adua's "closest" confidant and this will
figure heavily in his own political relevance and influence
in the PDP. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL