Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ABUJA162
2007-01-25 15:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
KANO GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS, DELTA
how-toVZCZCXRO8293 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHUJA #0162 0251510 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 251510Z JAN 07 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8428 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0086 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0084 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5997 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000162
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON NI
SUBJECT: KANO GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS, DELTA
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000162
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON NI
SUBJECT: KANO GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS, DELTA
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) During a January 24 meeting with the Ambassador, Kano
State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau expressed satisfaction with
the voter registration exercise in his state. Despite a slow
start due to lack of machines, the governor reported that as
of last week, 3.2 million voters had been registered in Kano.
Shekarau said that since Kano has 9.3 million residents
according to the latest census, he estimates the state's
electorate to be about 4.2 million voters. He told the
Ambassador that there are complaints in some local areas
about census results, but that the Kano state government
overall would not reject the results. Shekarau noted that
some states are wholly rejecting the census "for obvious
political reasons" or "regional jealousies."
2. (C) Governor Shekarau was elected in 2003 on the ANPP
platform, defeating the PDP incumbent Rabiu Kwankwaso , who
later became Minister of Defense. Shekarau told the
Ambassador that he is quite secure in his reelection bid. He
said that none of the presidential candidates have started to
campaign in Kano and he warned that "the PDP is mindful of
Kano because we gave them a terrible fight in 2003." The
governor predicted that ANPP candidate Muhamadu Buhari will
win by a heavy majority in Kano, noting that Kano may be
Buhari's strongest state. Shekarau believes that the best
the PDP can hope to achieve in Kano is 25% of the
presidential vote, which would aid them nationally, as a
candidate must take at least 25% of the vote in 2/3 of the
states to win outright. Governor Shekarau also pointed out
that the gubernatorial elections will be separate from the
presidential election in 2007, and indicated that this may
have an impact on the state-level races. Shekarau said that
the simultaneous election for president and governors in 2003
was in part responsible for AD and ANPP gubernatorial losses.
He said that the AD advised southwesterners to vote for
their AD governors but to support PDP for president.
However, some voters, many of whom are illiterate, found it
difficult to distinguish the ballots for each office and
simply picked the PDP logo on both ballots.
3. (C) When asked about his opinion on the Niger Delta,
Shekarau responded that he does not believe it is a military
or law enforcement crisis. Instead, he explained that
because of his background as a teacher and guidance
counselor, he sees great need for counseling of the Niger
Delta youth. He blames the state governments and the local
government authorities (LGAs) for neglecting and
marginalizing the youth by not listening to their concerns.
The youth began to think that their only option was to form
militant groups. The situation was exacerbated in 2003,
according to Governor Shekarau, when local politicians used
these nascent militias and then later "dumped them," so they
turned freelance. Shekarau discussed the controversial topic
of proposed changes to federal revenue sharing that would
increase the percentage of oil revenues going to Niger Delta
states. However, he noted that the increased derivation,
"must be taken from somewhere" and that the oil states
already receive an additional 15% of revenues. Shekarau
counseled that the Delta indigenes need to change tactics if
they want to succeed in their call for additional revenue
allocation. Current arguments tend to be emotional, but the
Governor thinks that Nigerians from other regions would
respond more favorably if provided with a logical argument
based on facts and figures. "Compare the price of building
100 kilometers in the Delta with the cost of doing so in Kano
or Kaduna," he suggested. Shekarau believes that progress
will not be made on the question of revenue derivation until
such logical arguments are employed. Everyone agrees that
infrastructure development is sorely needed in the Delta, and
if the cost of providing it is much higher in the oil region,
then perhaps those states should be compensated extra to do
so.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON NI
SUBJECT: KANO GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS, DELTA
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) During a January 24 meeting with the Ambassador, Kano
State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau expressed satisfaction with
the voter registration exercise in his state. Despite a slow
start due to lack of machines, the governor reported that as
of last week, 3.2 million voters had been registered in Kano.
Shekarau said that since Kano has 9.3 million residents
according to the latest census, he estimates the state's
electorate to be about 4.2 million voters. He told the
Ambassador that there are complaints in some local areas
about census results, but that the Kano state government
overall would not reject the results. Shekarau noted that
some states are wholly rejecting the census "for obvious
political reasons" or "regional jealousies."
2. (C) Governor Shekarau was elected in 2003 on the ANPP
platform, defeating the PDP incumbent Rabiu Kwankwaso , who
later became Minister of Defense. Shekarau told the
Ambassador that he is quite secure in his reelection bid. He
said that none of the presidential candidates have started to
campaign in Kano and he warned that "the PDP is mindful of
Kano because we gave them a terrible fight in 2003." The
governor predicted that ANPP candidate Muhamadu Buhari will
win by a heavy majority in Kano, noting that Kano may be
Buhari's strongest state. Shekarau believes that the best
the PDP can hope to achieve in Kano is 25% of the
presidential vote, which would aid them nationally, as a
candidate must take at least 25% of the vote in 2/3 of the
states to win outright. Governor Shekarau also pointed out
that the gubernatorial elections will be separate from the
presidential election in 2007, and indicated that this may
have an impact on the state-level races. Shekarau said that
the simultaneous election for president and governors in 2003
was in part responsible for AD and ANPP gubernatorial losses.
He said that the AD advised southwesterners to vote for
their AD governors but to support PDP for president.
However, some voters, many of whom are illiterate, found it
difficult to distinguish the ballots for each office and
simply picked the PDP logo on both ballots.
3. (C) When asked about his opinion on the Niger Delta,
Shekarau responded that he does not believe it is a military
or law enforcement crisis. Instead, he explained that
because of his background as a teacher and guidance
counselor, he sees great need for counseling of the Niger
Delta youth. He blames the state governments and the local
government authorities (LGAs) for neglecting and
marginalizing the youth by not listening to their concerns.
The youth began to think that their only option was to form
militant groups. The situation was exacerbated in 2003,
according to Governor Shekarau, when local politicians used
these nascent militias and then later "dumped them," so they
turned freelance. Shekarau discussed the controversial topic
of proposed changes to federal revenue sharing that would
increase the percentage of oil revenues going to Niger Delta
states. However, he noted that the increased derivation,
"must be taken from somewhere" and that the oil states
already receive an additional 15% of revenues. Shekarau
counseled that the Delta indigenes need to change tactics if
they want to succeed in their call for additional revenue
allocation. Current arguments tend to be emotional, but the
Governor thinks that Nigerians from other regions would
respond more favorably if provided with a logical argument
based on facts and figures. "Compare the price of building
100 kilometers in the Delta with the cost of doing so in Kano
or Kaduna," he suggested. Shekarau believes that progress
will not be made on the question of revenue derivation until
such logical arguments are employed. Everyone agrees that
infrastructure development is sorely needed in the Delta, and
if the cost of providing it is much higher in the oil region,
then perhaps those states should be compensated extra to do
so.
CAMPBELL