GNU STALLING AFTER PDP INTRIGUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001447

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: GNU STALLING AFTER PDP INTRIGUES

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) Summary: The Yar'Adua government's attempt to
reconcile with opposition parties and create a "government of
national unity" seems to be faltering. Although
representatives of the ANPP, AC, and PPA met with the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) on June 26 and 27 to
negotiate terms and agreements were signed with the PPA and
ANPP, subsequent events including changes within the PDP may
have derailed the unity talks. On June 27, a hastily
convened meeting of the PDP Board of Trustees unanimously
voted to install former President Obasanjo as its Chairman.
This move was widely viewed as a kind of coup within the
party due to its timing and nature. Questions remain as to
the Yar'Adua government's ability to disentangle itself from
Obasanjo and exert true independence. End Summary.


Government of National Unity Stalling
--------------


2. (C) In late June, President Yar'Adua announced his
intention to invite the All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP),
Action Congress (AC),and Progressive People's Alliance (PPA)
into his government. His stated rationale for talking to
those three parties was that they had won control of state
governments. (Note: APGA, in control of Anambra State after
the recent Supreme Court decision reinstalling Peter Obi, was
notably excluded.) Talks began on June 26 between
representatives of the opposition parties and a committee
from the PDP, including some recently reconciled old guard
PDP members who had fallen out with Obasanjo.


3. (C) Both the PPA and ANPP reps signed agreements which
were publicized on June 27 about their intention to join in
Yar'Adua's government and accept seats in cabinet and other
high-level advisor positions. The ANPP National Secretary
and vice presidential candidate Chief Edwin Ezeoke and
several ANPP governors participated in the talks. However,
ANPP presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari has
never been on board with the GNU talks and he has publicly
lambasted the ANPP for "betraying him" and negotiating with
an "illegitimate" government. Buhari has vowed to continue
his court case challenging Yar'Adua's election, even if the
ANPP as a party decides to enter government. PPA
presidential candidate and former Abia governor Orji Kalu has
not spoken publicly about his party's planned participation.


4. (C) Ambassador and Poloff met with AC vice presidential
candidate Senator Ben Obi on June 26, who confirmed that his
party was in talks with the PDP but outlined stringent
conditions for AC entry into government. Per Obi, the AC
demanded that INEC be dissolved and its top officials,
especially Chairman Maurice Iwu, fired; that the government
commit to serious electoral reform including amendment of the
2006 Electoral Act; that AC supporters allegedly still jailed
in some states since the election period be released; and
most importantly that fresh elections be held within 18
months to two years. If and only if such conditions were
met, the AC would participate in a unity government and drop
its challenge to the presidential election, Obi said. He
indicated that the party was not interested in a few token
ministerial slots because wholesale reform was needed.
Senator Obi stressed that the AC has an outstanding legal
team and he was confident that the AC will eventually win
their presidential challenge, "perhaps by August." However,
he admitted that a court decision overturning the results of
the presidential election had the potential to throw the
country in disarray, and that therefore out of patriotism and
concern for order, the AC might be willing to work towards
new elections and drop its suit.


5. (C) On July 5, the AC's National Executive Council met in
Abuja in order to reconcile 3 reported factions within the
party-- one which favored joining government, one opposed,
and a third which counseled caution. After a seven hour
closed-door meeting, the party decided to formally reject
participation in the proposed unity government and to
continue to pursue its petition against the results of the
April elections. Party spokesmen told the media that its
demands for dissolution of INEC, release of imprisoned party

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members, and release of audited information about oil
revenues and privatization of state assets had not been met.
National Secretary Bashir Dalhatu said that any member of the
AC who joins the government will be removed from the party,
and he announced that AC gubernatorial candidate in Ondo
state Ademola Adegoroye, who recently agreed to withdraw his
challenge and join PDP Governor Agagu's administration, was
suspended from the Action Congress. Party spokesman Lai
Mohammed urged the government to show its supposed commitment
to reform even without AC participation, and noted that if
ANPP and PPA have agreed to join the unity government, it
could be important for the AC to remain in opposition to
avoid tendencies toward a one-party state.


Palace Coup within the PDP
--------------


6. (C) On June 25, the PDP's National Executive Committee
(NEC) met in Abuja and agreed to retain the party's incumbent
leadership, including PDP Board of Trustees Chairman Tony
Anenih. President Yar'Adua presided over the meeting and
party office holders including National Secretary Ojo
Maduekwe, National Chairman Ahmadu Ali, and 19 state
governors were in attendance. Former President Obasanjo was
not present, as he was reportedly on his way back to Nigeria
from a holiday in the Caribbean. The NEC also agreed to set
up a "reconciliation committee" headed by former Vice
President Alex Ekwueme, which was charged with bringing
aggrieved former PDP members back into the fold, and cleared
former Senate President Ken Nnamani of charges of anti-party
activities for his outspoken criticism during and after the
April polls. The June 25 NEC meeting was widely portrayed in
the media as a blow to Obasanjo, as he was expected to be
named the new Chairman of the Board of Trustees after the
December 2006 amendment to the PDP constitution.


7. (C) However, the tide seemed to turn on June 27. Chairman
Tony Anenih announced that a BOT meeting would be held that
evening at 8pm and invited the board's 79 members to attend.
However, others within the party moved the meeting time up to
noon and did not pass this information to all members. Only
30 members of the board were present at the hastily-convened
meeting (which did not constitute a quorum and violated the
party's constitution),though the participants included
President Obasanjo, President Yar'Adua, Vice President
Jonathan, National Chair Ali, and national Secretary
Maduekwe. BOT Chairman Anenih was absent, and other BOT
members who reportedly tried to enter the meeting while it
was in progress were denied admittance. Media reports
indicate that President Obasanjo was unanimously confirmed as
the new BOT chairman, despite the intrigues and procedural
irregularities. There was speculation in the media that
Obasanjo's re-emergence as the BOT Chair would derail
attempts at reconciling ex-PDP members, and some in Tony
Anenih's camp characterized the meeting as a "palace coup."

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Though the term "government of national unity" has
been used a great deal in the Nigerian press, there are a
variety of interpretations circulating about just what such a
government would look like. To some, a unity government
means token participation in government by a few opposition
representatives, while others use the term to signify a
reform-minded coalition aimed at holding new elections in a
short-medium timeframe. It would appear that the
reform-minded coalition is less and less likely, given the
lack of participation by mainstream opposition candidates and
the AC's recent withdrawal from unity government talks.


9. (C) Numerous interlocutors in past weeks from both the
PDP and opposition parties have spoken to Poloffs about what
they see as near-universal unhappiness with former President
Obasanjo as a uniting factor amongst Nigerians. One northern
traditional leader told Poloff that the PDP knowingly
accepted some of Obasanjo's proposals, such as the
constitutional change enabling him to become BOT Chairman, as
a kind of "deal with the devil" in order to appease him and
assure his withdrawal from office. However, according to

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this source, the party and the government are now engaged in
a process of "disentanglement" -- attempting to remove some
of Obasanjo's control of the party and of government -- and
that this disentanglement will need to be done slowly and
carefully over at least six months. Though President
Yar'Adua has made some positive, reform-minded statements
about the elections, anti-corruption, and other policies, we
need to keep in mind that Yar'Adua may not be fully free to
pursue his own agenda for some months.

CAMPBELL