NIGERIA: HALF OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS REGISTERED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000123

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: HALF OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS REGISTERED

REF: ABUJA 78

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Nigeria's Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) says it has registered 35 million voters as
of January 18. However, IFES has serious concerns about data
quality and the transfer of data from 40,000 registration
machines into a central database to form the voters roll.
Less than two weeks remain for INEC to finish registering the
additional 30-35 million Nigerians eligible to vote-- a
daunting task However, INEC has made good progress on
procurement of ballot boxes and papers as well as drafting of
instructions for election observers and party agents.
Campaign activities are underway, though some parties are in
the process of substituting new candidates to replace those
originally nominated at primaries in December. Several
parties are unhappy with INEC's decision to screen all
candidates to ensure they meet eligibility requirements. End
summary.


2. (U) On January 18, Ambassador, Embassy and USAID
officials met with the election partners group (IFES, IRI,
NDI, and PACT) to discuss Nigeria's progress on elections
preparations. The meeting focused on technical issues,
especially those related to voter registration, and party
activities.

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Voter registration update
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3. (C) INEC told IFES that as of January 17, it had
registered 35 million voters. Since Nigeria's population is
140 million, according to the recently announced census,
there are a projected 65-70 million eligible voters. This
means that perhaps half of the electorate is yet to be
enrolled with only two weeks remaining in the registration
period. Though INEC has touted that it is conducting
"revalidation" of the 2003 voters roll, such claims are
meaningless. Anyone who wishes to enroll, whether or not
they were registered in 2003, has to appear in person at a
registration machine to have their photo and fingerprints
captured. Voter registration will close on January 31 and be
followed by a display period of several days, during which
voters will be able to examine the roll. According to IFES,
voters will not have much recourse if they find problems with
the posted list, as the final voters roll must be published
February 14.


4. (C) IFES also cautioned that the 35 million registrations
have not yet been examined or downloaded to a central
database. Registration is being conducted with 40,000
machines around the country, many of which are laptop
computers rather than the handheld direct data capture (DDC)
machines originally procured by INEC from companies in
Canada, South Africa, and Malaysia. According to IFES, the
laptops have worked better in the field than the handhelds.
However, the laptops are less secure, as employees might be
able to manipulate registration data stored on the laptop
until it is transmitted to the central database. IFES also
remains generally concerned about data quality and says that
additional errors may occur when INEC tries to download all
of the millions of registrations in a short period, rather
than doing so gradually over time.

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Other Election Logistics
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5. (C) IFES is pleased with INEC's progress on procurement
of ballot papers and ballot boxes. INEC has purchased
250,000 ballot boxes, which they expect to receive by the end
of the month. IFES has examined the specifications developed
for INEC's procurement of ballot papers and believes that
they are well-written and include the necessary security
features. The ballot papers will include candidate names and
photos as well as party logos. The ballots cannot be printed
until after the February 14 deadline for parties to
substitute candidates and IFES notes that distribution of the
ballots to the 120,00 polling places will be a huge challenge


6. (C) INEC, with help from IFES, has drafted an instruction
manual to govern the conduct of observers and party agents.
However, the manual is stalled in the INEC clearance process.
IRI has completed a training manual for party polling

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agents. They will conduct training for 1800 master trainers
of party polling agents in February.

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Campaigns and parties
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7. (C) IRI noted that campaign activities are underway,
though the official INEC start date for campaigns for federal
offices is January 21. Many parties are replacing some of
the candidates they originally nominated in December, as they
are permitted to do until February 14. The PDP has announced
it will shuffle some of its gubernatorial and senate
nominees. IRI has heard that Speaker of the House Masari
will be given the PDP gubernatorial ticket in Katsina, and
Ibrahim Shema, who was originally nominated for governor,
will be nominated for one of Katsina's Senatorial districts
instead. According to IRI, many political parties are
unhappy about the role that INEC has taken in "screening" all
candidates to ensure they meet eligibility requirements.
However, Nigeria's law is vague on this point, and INEC may
not be overstepping its mandate by checking that candidates
meet requirements about age and education.

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Comment
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8. (C) INEC has made progress on both voter registration
and procurement of voting materials. However, serious
questions about the voter registration exercise still
threaten the April 2007 polls. Newspaper headlines this week
alleged that the election could be postponed, perhaps until
August, due to INEC's mismanagement of the voter registration
exercise. Some National Assembly members told the press that
the entire voters roll could be challenged in court, as INEC
"illegally" continued to register voters after December 14.
INEC has publicly denied that any such delay is possible and
National Assembly members to whom we spoke also reassured us
that elections will not be postponed. Delay of the
elections, unless achieved by a constitutional amendment or
state of emergency declaration, would be extralegal or
illegal. Post will continue to closely monitor this issue
and to reiterate publicly and privately that we expect
credible elections in April and a peaceful transition from
one civilian elected government to another on May 29, 2007.
CAMPBELL